Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[FluxCap]

We should start spewing bullish FUD like: Deutche bank initiates TESLA at buy targets $150. NHSTA revamps safety regulation based on Model S. NHSTA gives the all clear on Model S. Billionaire Warren buffet buys TSLA stock saying: "An automobile is something that I understand and can touch". Citigroup initiates TSLA at outperform targets $600. Billionaire hedge fund caught red handed naked shorting TSLA and must cover. SEC investigate said hedge fund for improper insider trading and collusion. Short positions to be liquidated immediately.

**Edit this post is pure sarcasm and FUD.

Now you're starting to think like a proper political operative. Well done! :tongue:

There is no question that paid-for spin/news/FUD/propaganda exists, and that it has been directed forcefully at Tesla Motors with vicious and rapid success in the last few months. It is an industry that has risen a tide of deregulation and media consolidation to unprecedented levels of influence over the information consumed by millions everyday. The only counter to these weapons of perception, whether targeted at a company or a candidate for office, is to go on the offensive and get out there with counter-spin. The "truth" is much less relevant in the era of "linkbait," pay-per-click, ad-tech and Fox News/MSNBC fearmongering. Perception is now manufactured with laser-like precision, primarily in order to keep people reading/watching out of fear, so that ads may be sold. To ignore this is to risk losing the war of perception altogether.

This is one reason why I have argued that Tesla needs a more aggressive public communications effort. We here know full well that the linkbait on SA and other "sites" is borderline slander and has no merit, but the vast majority of the public does not. And the bots magnify and amplify this FUD to trade on it.

Anyone want to form TeslaPAC and donate to the defense and positive communication efforts around the sustainable, fundamentally strong, amazing efforts of superstar world-changing megastock wonder-company Tesla Motors? :biggrin:

 

[TSLAopt]

Now you're starting to think like a proper political operative. Well done! :tongue:

There is no question that paid-for spin/news/FUD/propaganda exists, and that it has been directed forcefully at Tesla Motors with vicious and rapid success in the last few months. It is an industry that has risen a tide of deregulation and media consolidation to unprecedented levels of influence over the information consumed by millions everyday. The only counter to these weapons of perception, whether targeted at a company or a candidate for office, is to go on the offensive and get out there with counter-spin. The "truth" is much less relevant in the era of "linkbait," pay-per-click, ad-tech and Fox News/MSNBC fearmongering. Perception is now manufactured with laser-like precision, primarily in order to keep people reading/watching out of fear, so that ads may be sold. To ignore this is to risk losing the war of perception altogether.

This is one reason why I have argued that Tesla needs a more aggressive public communications effort. We here know full well that the linkbait on SA and other "sites" is borderline slander and has no merit, but the vast majority of the public does not. And the bots magnify and amplify this FUD to trade on it.

Anyone want to form TeslaPAC and donate to the defense and positive communication efforts around the sustainable, fundamentally strong, amazing efforts of superstar world-changing megastock wonder-company Tesla Motors? :biggrin:

Great idea! I'd donate at least $100 to start, maybe much more later if it started gaining traction

 

[Noble Ninja]

So we finish the day closing at minus half a percent roughly. I've noticed this happens a lot these days, essentially range-bounded. Any explanations as to why? I doubt it is a coincidence! Bots and algos?

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: a bunch of posts went to Tracking-short-interest

 

[Curt Renz]

So we finish the day closing at minus half a percent roughly. I've noticed this happens a lot these days, essentially range-bounded. Any explanations as to why? I doubt it is a coincidence! Bots and algos?

That's one of several classic signs of a bottom. The FUD campaign had grown intense over the last week as seen here, at Seeking Alpha and elsewhere. Yet the concerted effort does not seem to have been able to push the price down much further on a closing basis. Nervous longs who feared more bad news and lower prices appear to have been flushed out. Short sellers seem to have already staked their positions as indicated by the recent jump in short interest. Meanwhile bottom fishers have started to pick up what they believe are bargains. Still on the sidelines are potential new buyers and former shareholders awaiting good news. And of course short sellers may be preparing to cover, if they have not done so already.

It seems that the worst news is behind us, and any potential for more bad news has been fully discounted into the share price. I do expect a relatively clean bill of health from the NHTSA. The White House may soon comment positively on the anti-dealership petition. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon pre-announces some good news regarding margins, orders and production capabilities. That could include news regarding an increased inflow of batteries for the near term and a giga-factory for the long term. And as soon as the share price starts picking up, don't be surprised by upgrades from the analysts.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks for the tip Curt. i purchased your book.

You're welcome. I hope it serves you well. I wrote that primer on stock market technical analysis at the request of McGraw-Hill. But in truth I also follow the fundamentals, and to a larger extent anecdotal evidence, especially in the cases of companies with special stories like Tesla Motors. Too bad you're not in Chicagoland, or I would autograph the book for you. :smile:

 

[LiteWait]

That's one of several classic signs of a bottom. The FUD campaign had grown intense over the last week as seen here, at Seeking Alpha and elsewhere. Yet the concerted effort does not seem to have been able to push the price down much further on a closing basis. Nervous longs who feared more bad news and lower prices appear to have been flushed out. Short sellers seem to have already staked their positions as indicated by the recent jump in short interest. Meanwhile bottom fishers have started to pick up what they believe are bargains. Still on the sidelines are potential new buyers and former shareholders awaiting good news. And of course short sellers may be preparing to cover, if they have not done so already.

It seems that the worst news is behind us, and any potential for more bad news has been fully discounted into the share price. I do expect a relatively clean bill of health from the NHTSA. The White House may soon comment positively on the anti-dealership petition. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon pre-announces some good news regarding margins, orders and production capabilities. That could include news regarding an increased inflow of batteries for the near term and a giga-factory for the long term. And as soon as the share price starts picking up, don't be surprised by upgrades from the analysts.

@Curt: I'll have to disagree with you about a completely clean bill of health from the NHTSA. I don't think they will do anything with respect to enforcing a recall or saying that the car is unsafe. What I am afraid of is that the whole situation could be the precedent needed to implement an official NHTSA "Undercarriage Road Debris Test". I looked through all of the NHTSA testing procedures and couldn't find anything on undercarriage road debris testing. I know for a fact that the car was designed to beat all of the NHTSA tests. If road debris was one of those tests prior to the launch of the car Tesla would have designed it to beat that one also and this whole issue would never have come up.

Edit:

Saw this article posted on the short term social chat thread:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/rec...ord-escape-time-theres-fire-danger-2D11658567

After seeing this article I am a little bit less worried but still skeptical. Please share your thoughts.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What I am afraid of is that the whole situation could be the precedent needed to implement an official NHTSA "Undercarriage Road Debris Test". I looked through all of the NHTSA testing procedures and couldn't find anything on undercarriage road debris testing. I know for a fact that the car was designed to beat all of the NHTSA tests. If road debris was one of those tests prior to the launch of the car Tesla would have designed it to beat that one also and this whole issue would never have come up.

Keep in mind a few things:

NHTSA tests measure collision forces on dummies and the associated probability of injury. We already know from 2 accidents that the Model S protected its occupants from impact with road debris.

NHTSA is also on a budget, and not one that is likely to grow substantially in the next few years IMO given the tight fiscal situation of the federal government. I doubt there is money or other resources to implement a whole new test suite.

IIHS, on the other hand, creates new tests more frequently. Roof strength and small-offset are the two most recent examples. Any new testing would likely come from IIHS as it is funded by the insurance industry and not the Feds.

 

[Curt Renz]

@Curt: I'll have to disagree with you about a completely clean bill of health from the NHTSA. I don't think they will do anything with respect to enforcing a recall or saying that the car is unsafe. What I am afraid of is that the whole situation could be the precedent needed to implement an official NHTSA "Undercarriage Road Debris Test". I looked through all of the NHTSA testing procedures and couldn't find anything on undercarriage road debris testing. I know for a fact that the car was designed to beat all of the NHTSA tests. If road debris was one of those tests prior to the launch of the car Tesla would have designed it to beat that one also and this whole issue would never have come up.

Edit:

Saw this article posted on the short term social chat thread:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/rec...ord-escape-time-theres-fire-danger-2D11658567

After seeing this article I am a little bit less worried but still skeptical. Please share your thoughts.

Thank you for your well considered input. As requested, I'll share more thoughts. The NHTSA is a political organization in both senses of the term. They already gave the Model S their highest safety rating. After the first fire, they fully cleared the company. They don't want to appear to have made a mistake. Keep in mind that their concern is passenger safety and not vehicle damage. Recently the NHTSA head implied publicly that the investigation could go well for Tesla and spoke of the company in glowing terms. The administration and especially the president want to push the nation toward electric cars. Elon must have an even better sense of the intentions of the NHTSA and the president than I might. And he has publicly stated that he expects exoneration from the NHTSA.

 

[Sunnyday]

That's one of several classic signs of a bottom. The FUD campaign had grown intense over the last week as seen here, at Seeking Alpha and elsewhere. Yet the concerted effort does not seem to have been able to push the price down much further on a closing basis. Nervous longs who feared more bad news and lower prices appear to have been flushed out. Short sellers seem to have already staked their positions as indicated by the recent jump in short interest. Meanwhile bottom fishers have started to pick up what they believe are bargains. Still on the sidelines are potential new buyers and former shareholders awaiting good news. And of course short sellers may be preparing to cover, if they have not done so already.

It seems that the worst news is behind us, and any potential for more bad news has been fully discounted into the share price. I do expect a relatively clean bill of health from the NHTSA. The White House may soon comment positively on the anti-dealership petition. I wouldn't be surprised if Elon pre-announces some good news regarding margins, orders and production capabilities. That could include news regarding an increased inflow of batteries for the near term and a giga-factory for the long term. And as soon as the share price starts picking up, don't be surprised by upgrades from the analysts.

I think Tesla's going to need to play their celebration PR a little close to vest for a few months now that they have these class action parasites circling around making (erroneous) claims of hype and broken promises. Tesla needs to consider themselves on notice for anything that would create dots the parasites could connect.

 

[Causalien]

Now you're starting to think like a proper political operative. Well done! :tongue:

There is no question that paid-for spin/news/FUD/propaganda exists, and that it has been directed forcefully at Tesla Motors with vicious and rapid success in the last few months. It is an industry that has risen a tide of deregulation and media consolidation to unprecedented levels of influence over the information consumed by millions everyday. The only counter to these weapons of perception, whether targeted at a company or a candidate for office, is to go on the offensive and get out there with counter-spin. The "truth" is much less relevant in the era of "linkbait," pay-per-click, ad-tech and Fox News/MSNBC fearmongering. Perception is now manufactured with laser-like precision, primarily in order to keep people reading/watching out of fear, so that ads may be sold. To ignore this is to risk losing the war of perception altogether.

This is one reason why I have argued that Tesla needs a more aggressive public communications effort. We here know full well that the linkbait on SA and other "sites" is borderline slander and has no merit, but the vast majority of the public does not. And the bots magnify and amplify this FUD to trade on it.

Anyone want to form TeslaPAC and donate to the defense and positive communication efforts around the sustainable, fundamentally strong, amazing efforts of superstar world-changing megastock wonder-company Tesla Motors? :biggrin:

The bot I was talking about today was the trading bot a.k.a HFT algorithm pointed at TSLA. Except it is a different kind that seems to target stop losses or limit orders.
Now for the bot/sock puppet. The last time I was investigating this, there was a platform that was used for one person to essentially talk through several different ID on any given forum. It'll just automatically rotate through IDs and randomly generate new ones from time to time. (At the beginning when it first starts, it'll generate a new ID everytime).

Now when I left day trading, the technology was going towards complete bot driven conversations and you only have to point a sentiment. It'll cull the social media sites and basically use the same wording. It was pathetic at first because you can tell right away, but I am not sure how far those have evolved. The reason why I know some sort of paid per post is going on is by using certain simple interrogation techniques and asking specific questions. Guilty/Innocent people responds differently. If I seemed aggressive and posted a few incomprehensive questions in the recent months, I apologize. I needed to know for sure.

That said. We spiked above the channel a few times, but sadly no green hammer. A +10% increase in shorts is pretty amazing. Maybe the rocket launch this week will symbolically be the event trigger. Watched the designer's interview video. A few hints were dropped about how awesome Gen 3 is going to be. Can't wait for 2014.

Bought more. Still waiting for my money to get into my account.

*EDIT: Here's some FUD for the crawling bots: BREAKING NEWS! FORD RECALL!! Damage measured in the billions. Texas to ban all Ford trucks resulting in general population revolt against gas guzzlers. BREAKING NEWS!!! China government elites mandate Model S for anyone with 1 million dollar and more net worth. Gen 3 for anyone above $30k. Apple in negotiation with TSLA for controlling stake. Chinese investment firm linked to government agency ICBC bought 20% of Tesla shares in Q3.

**EDIT2: Remember I used to talk about how TSLA's stock price mirrors my life events? Well, the stock started to drop when I had to shut down my corp. But today, something really wonderful happened as some sort of conclusion to the corp. Won't know for sure until December or next year though. Either outcome. It is going to be another life changing event to the upside.

 

[FANGO]

I think Tesla's going to need to play their celebration PR a little close to vest for a few months now that they have these class action parasites circling around making (erroneous) claims of hype and broken promises. Tesla needs to consider themselves on notice for anything that would create dots the parasites could connect.

These class action things are wholly irrelevant. It's nothing but a PR stunt by the firms involved.

 

[LiteWait]

Thank you for your well considered input. As requested, I'll share more thoughts. The NHTSA is a political organization in both senses of the term. They already gave the Model S their highest safety rating. After the first fire, they fully cleared the company. They don't want to appear to have made a mistake. Keep in mind that their concern is passenger safety and not vehicle damage. Recently the NHTSA head implied publicly that the investigation could go well for Tesla and spoke of the company in glowing terms. The administration and especially the president want to push the nation toward electric cars. Elon must have an even better sense of the intentions of the NHTSA and the president than I might. And he has publicly stated that he expects exoneration from the NHTSA.

@Curt: That is a little more comforting however, Elon also publicly stated that Tesla engineers were not working on improving the safety of the undercarriage with respect to protecting the battery pack. Looking through Tesla patents it looks like they were issued a new patent about a year ago which has not yet been implemented:

http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120312615

I would say I feel a bit mislead when he said that unless he was specifically referring to Tesla engineers not working on improving safety on cars already on the road. Everything is up to interpretation i suppose. I have been checking your website frequently and saw you unwound your collar. I still have staggered collars going out till June but have been considering buying back some calls especially after the recovery today. I still feel as though there is a lot of downside risk with respect to the investigation and cell constraints. I think I will buy back the calls soon as I don't want to miss out on a run up but I will be keeping the puts for a while longer.

- - - Updated - - -

Keep in mind a few things:

NHTSA tests measure collision forces on dummies and the associated probability of injury. We already know from 2 accidents that the Model S protected its occupants from impact with road debris.

NHTSA is also on a budget, and not one that is likely to grow substantially in the next few years IMO given the tight fiscal situation of the federal government. I doubt there is money or other resources to implement a whole new test suite.

IIHS, on the other hand, creates new tests more frequently. Roof strength and small-offset are the two most recent examples. Any new testing would likely come from IIHS as it is funded by the insurance industry and not the Feds.

That's really helpful I'll have to think about this some more. I'm no expert on what drives the NHTSA.

 

[Curt Renz]

Keep in mind a few things:

NHTSA tests measure collision forces on dummies and the associated probability of injury. We already know from 2 accidents that the Model S protected its occupants from impact with road debris.

NHTSA is also on a budget, and not one that is likely to grow substantially in the next few years IMO given the tight fiscal situation of the federal government. I doubt there is money or other resources to implement a whole new test suite.

IIHS, on the other hand, creates new tests more frequently. Roof strength and small-offset are the two most recent examples. Any new testing would likely come from IIHS as it is funded by the insurance industry and not the Feds.

Thank you for your post. I agree with it entirely. However, I'll add that insurance companies have greater concern with passenger safety than vehicle damage, since the problems with the former can result in far greater costs. Nevertheless, to minimize the latter concern, Tesla has amended its warranty to cover fires, so that is no longer a cost consideration for the insurance companies.

 

[dmckinstry]

Thank you for your post. I agree with it entirely. However, I'll add that insurance companies have greater concern with passenger safety than vehicle damage, since the problems with the former can result in far greater costs. Nevertheless, to minimize the latter concern, Tesla has amended its warranty to cover fires, so that is no longer a cost consideration for the insurance companies.

And I'm further convinced that Tesla considers the probability of such damage to be negligible.

 

[MikeC]

So does anyone have any idea when this NHTSA report is going to come out?

 

[DaveT]

So does anyone have any idea when this NHTSA report is going to come out?

I remember NHTSA's David Strickland saying in an interview that there was no deadline for the report and it could takes weeks or months.

Here's another interview he did recently.
NHTSA chief Strickland discusses Tesla probe at Los Angeles Auto Show - The Washington Post

 

[SteveG3]

So does anyone have any idea when this NHTSA report is going to come out?

There was a short interview on CNBC with David Strickland of the NHTSA. Paraphrasing, he said these can be months or weeks, but given Tesla's high level of cooperation the shorter range is more likely.

 

[aznt1217]

There was a short interview on CNBC with David Strickland of the NHTSA. Paraphrasing, he said these can be months or weeks, but given Tesla's high level of cooperation the shorter range is more likely.

That and I can't imagine he enjoys the press hounding him. It's the bloody holidays. It's in everybody's best interest to get this over with.

 

[renim]

Looking through Tesla patents it looks like they were issued a new patent about a year ago which has not yet been implemented:

http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120312615

measure the pack thickness
measure an 18650 cell height
look at Tesla safety test results


that patent is a partial generic description of Tesla's safety philosopy
it is implemented

or
How else do you explain the difference between pack thickness and cell height?