Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Julian Cox]

sleepyhead, are you serious about selling based on Zacks's upgrade? (I didn't see it answered in the thread)

It's actually a little bit curious. Zacks can sometimes be considered an index of retail investor hubris.

Goldman just did one of their unflattering upgrades (to $170). Would not be overly surprised about a dip and upward correction.

Set against this is some pretty stunning medium term stuff with these bonds, essentially an industrial scale vote for a $360 PT.

The last $184 price target set by bonds was the next meaningful event following the May 2013 bond sale.

The shorts must be getting a bit thin on the squeeze by now and if short covering peters out then I would see a 10% correction on the cards in rapid due course followed by a resumption of momentum to $360.

JC

 

[FluxCap]

I just want to remind folks of a few possible short-term price movement inputs in my mind:

Downward Pressure:
Macroeconomic indicators and events including Eurozone instability
Resumption of heavy volume of paid Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt articles by shorts (linkbait on SA / others)
Weak long exits / profit-taking

Upward Pressure:
NHTSA report somewhere on the horizon
Digesting the GigaFactory -- a weekend for retail investors to read headline articles about GigaFactory and call their brokers on Monday
Ever-growing Model X reservation tally that just keeps forking over cash to Tesla Motors

 

[ckessel]

Just found this on the Gigafactory thread (thanks to Benz), looks good:

Stock is stubborn today. Extra demand for the offering, webbush upgrade, and it's still sinking steadily. We're back below the closing price the day of the MS upgrade.

 

[RobotGrease]

Looks like we are holding the support for now. Interesting how we were able to enter back into the original uptrend (green), I didn't see that coming.

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We are back at another critical point on the Daily:

 

[3mp_kwh]

Seeing $246-7. On an options note, I always knew bid/ask spreads and time value work against you the moment you take a position, but never w/in 24hrs, and the stock going my way ~3pts, have I faced a 25% loss on execution. Wow.

 

[RobotGrease]

Looks like the support held, see if we can hold the upwards momentum for the rest of the day.

Whats the general consensus: has the last few days been a bull flag consolidation? Seems so to me.

 

[austinEV]

Looks like the support held, see if we can hold the upwards momentum for the rest of the day.

Whats the general consensus: has the last few days been a bull flag consolidation? Seems so to me.

Maybe. Last time it was a 5 day consolidation.

 

[Chickenlittle]

i thought the last last time was a mix of bond and preferred stock. This time is just the two bonds (2017 & 2019)

youre right though, no mention about musk making personal investment. Doesn't matter to me. I think it's more assured now that tesla is viable long term. I think that perception has improved since last secondary

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+1. You beat me to it

i have been invested long enough in this company to remember days when the price was down 5 when the pps was in 30s. whole lot of fuss when stock is 250 on a drop of 5 after a huge run up over the past month. maybe too many doing weekly options who shouldnt if they cannot tolerate the risk? maybe too high expectations?

 

[patentesq]

Any guesses on timing of NHTSA report? IMO, an all-clear report is not entirely baked into the current price and would create upwards price movement.

 

[niptuck]

what are thoughts on how march will play out? March options taking a hit today on small movement. Opportunity to load up or wait? We've had a nice move very quickly but it seems like the GF news should have made a bigger impact, unless that is priced in.
Cheers

 

[3mp_kwh]

maybe too many doing weekly options who shouldnt if they cannot tolerate the risk? maybe too high expectations?

It's not the risk. It's the jar of vaseline you need to bring the market-makers, when you want to get out

 

[TSLAopt]

Maybe. Last time it was a 5 day consolidation.

yes, my feeling is the weak longs can sometimes take a few days to get out after a nice emotional high of such a run up we just had. Once that clears we will be back on a trend upwards...combined with some random short attacks along the way that also set the stage for the next short squeeze at some point.

 

[ggies07]

With all the Wall St. talk recently, I thought this would be an interesting new book to read:

Young Money: Inside the Hidden World of Wall Street's Post-Crash Recruits by Kevin Roose | 9780446583251 | Hardcover | Barnes & Noble

 

[DaveT]

There will be no Gigafactory conference call.

I just heard from Tesla investor relations:

I emailed them earlier, "would like to know if Tesla is planning a conference call for the Gigafactory and if so when?"

Their email reply was, "In lieu of a call on Gigafactory, we instead decided to post this blog post and slides from our convert deal roadshow at this link, http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory"

 

[surfside]

There will be no Gigafactory conference call.

well that is disappointing. was looking forward to hearing elon go into more detail about the gigafactory and field questions from the analyst community.

i guess we will have to wait till Q1 earnings for that...

surfside

 

[Aphysician]

Thank you all for your input and analysis. I have been active in other threads, but not much here. Trying to determine the support level. It seems at this time 245 seems to be a good support level. Any thoughts?

 

[RobotGrease]

Thank you all for your input and analysis. I have been active in other threads, but not much here. Trying to determine the support level. It seems at this time 245 seems to be a good support level. Any thoughts?

I dont think the next support comes until ~$240.

 

[joefee]

Any guesses on timing of NHTSA report? IMO, an all-clear report is not entirely baked into the current price and would create upwards price movement.

IMO a positive NHTSA result is baked into TSLA due to positive clearance by other global safety regulators and anything but a full positive report will hurt the stock (in the short run) commensurate with the seriousness/financial impacts of any required recalls or limitations in current FW/SW functions

 

[Aphysician]

@RobertGrease
Thank you for reply. At this rate, it seems we may breach 240 support level.

 

[100thMonkey]

there's a whole new batch of super charging stations just added to the coming soon map (http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger), the map for 2014 also shows additional stations. things had grown quet on the super charging front, so this is a welcome sight. I think it's all too easy to under estimate just how huge an impact the growing map has on consumer confidence and ultimately will have/is having on sales. the gigafactory will change the mid term future, the super charging network effects owners and prospective owners in the more immediate/short term and to the extent that it's impact is understood, could give lift to TSLA.