JRP3
Hyperactive Member
We know production rates have increased, which could keep wait times down even if demand remained the same or increased.
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Vger
Active Member
I could not agree more. An editorial I read recently in the NYT stated: "Putin needs to sell his oil and gas more than Europe needs to buy it." The current stand-off there will only hasten the hew and cry for energy independence in the EU and elsewhere as well.
That said, general parker participants are often too knee-jerk short-term fear-based and not strategic.
I am referring to U.S. demand only. Sales, NOT Production, to U.S. customers reduces waiting time.
I am a hard core believer in Tesla, the company and the Model S. The tsunami of media coverage about the fires gave me pause. Visually dramatic, I am certain it placed the seeds of doubt in many potential buyers. Months down the road, my 20/20 hindsight is perfectly clear.
More and more time is solidifying my judgement regarding the fire issue. Did it affect demand? No doubt.
Coming through a fire-storm unscathed will only improve demand going forward.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Additionally, tech stocks are often propelled by excitement about new products. Tesla has been keeping quiet on Model X... but if the company delivers another insanely great vehicle (which I believe they will), I think it will go a long way towards boosting investor sentiment.
In order for TSLA to move solidly above $200 and stay there, I believe the company will need to have finalized a deal or deals on the Gigafactory, and demonstrated a mostly complete Model X. The Model X will be proof that Tesla isn't just a one hit wonder where mass produced automobiles are concerned. The Gigafactory will be proof that Tesla will have the capacity to grow from producing 10s of thousands of cars/year to the 100s of thousands of cars/year.
So my prediction is $200 + or - a few dollars for the time being. Tesla jumped from the $30s to the $190s when it became clear that Model S made the company profitable. This was an insane jump that I did not predict. I knew that there would be a jump, but I had no clue just how big it would be. The Gigafactory and Model X are another set of jumping points. I don't know how high they will take the share price. What that company does in the next year is crucial.
I see you live in California where the Model S is made and the lion's share have been sold. Tesla Motors does not yet advertise. Word of mouth emanates from California. Here in Chicagoland most folks are either unaware or vaguely aware of Tesla Motors and the Model S. Those who follow the financial news are aware of Tesla, but most people don't follow the financial news. Once production has ramped up to meet current demand, look for the company to begin advertising. That's when you'll see the exponential growth.
Come on, Model S sales in US WILL NOT go exponentially higher in future. Simply put TM is NOT planning for that, and as of now will not have capacity to meet a higher demand. So we should bring our expectations in line with this reality.
In order to put this in perspective, one should look at it from two angles: production/potential earnings and sales comparison with other large luxury cars in approximately the same price range.
Production
Capacity of the each of two Fremont final assembly lines is approximately 56,500 cars/year (Building out a real high volume next generation production line for the Model S and X). Assuming that one line will cover Model S, and another Model X, as well as that total US demand will approximately equal 1/3 of worldwide demand (per the official TM projections), the total US production allocation for MS is 56,500 / 3 = 18,833 cars/year. Coincidentally, the 2013 sales of Model S were 18,544 (US sales - European sales = 22,450 - 3,906 = 18,544). So US already reached maximum production capacity that is currently allocated by TM. Just to add an additional perspective, when both lines are operating at maximum capacity, perhaps in 2016, the total MS/MX production will be 2 x 56,500 = 113,000. Assuming ASP of $105 and operating margin of 15%, this put TM EBIT at $1.78B in 2016. Just to emphasize, this is without further "exponential" growth in MS US sales.
Sales Comparison
Refer to the table below compiled based on data from GoodCarBadCar.com. The current "stagnating" US sales propel Model S into the first place among the price peers, while taking a whopping 19% percent of large luxury car market in US! I think that this fact deserves celebration rather than lament...
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Vgrinshpun's analysis above and in the Gigafactory Thread are Top Notch and much appreciated. I would love for Tesla (Elon) to talk about what they think production will be like in 2016
Unfortunately, it is unlikely that he will talk about it, but we can! :smile:
sundaymorning
Active Member
Curt, I actually live in California. I visit 3 tesla stores on a regular basis, every time I visit the stores and talk to the staff, I am told their sales numbers keep increasing, and keeps getting better and better. I see more Model S on the road everyday (2-3 is the norm, but I also see less and less Mercedes S500 and BMW 7 series on the road). Many people in CA still hasn't heard of TESLA as of yet... trust me on this.
Tesla car is still very unknown outside of finance and car enthusiast circles. Very few people in Australia have good awareness of the company and the car.
That tells me that we are very far from the tipping point. The definition of a tipping point - the time when a group of people rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting previously rare practice.
Current Tesla expansion in many geographical markets will greatly promote awareness of the car amongst the unaware drivers. I am just so eager to see how this phenomenon or change will unfold.
That tells me that we are very far from the tipping point. The definition of a tipping point - the time when a group of people rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting previously rare practice.
Current Tesla expansion in many geographical markets will greatly promote awareness of the car amongst the unaware drivers. I am just so eager to see how this phenomenon or change will unfold.
Thanks for your inputs, and thanks to Austin EV as well. The rebound happened shortly after he wrote his post ;-)
So 190 is a short term support and 200 a resistance, but very soft and anything can happen. Not for the faint of hearts!
I'm 50 miles north of Los Angeles,in Ventura, which is a middle class/working class city of 100,000. Every time I go to LA, there are more and more Model S's to be seen. I usually give up counting around 20 something cars (and those are the once I happen to notice as I don't actually "look" for them). When I bought mine a year ago, I was the only Model S in my town. Now I see at least one or two a day in Ventura. If I go to Santa Barbara, a population of only 90,000, I will see 5 to 8 in a day. I have no doubt the population of Model S are increasing strongly, and on a recent. upsurge.
I do see more here in Austin as well. On the other side of that one interesting thing is that it used to be test drive "events" were once a month on the weekend. Now they are every other week and 5 days long. That is a clear sign of more interest in the car.
Seems like good news that the factory is nearly at 50% capacity with Model S production.
http://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-fremont-factory-usage-almost-50/
http://insideevs.com/tesla-motors-fremont-factory-usage-almost-50/
MartinAustin
Active Member
Well, I'm glad to see the stock is up... though as many have said, volatiity is king right now, it seems to be pretty submissive to negative forces (versus a few months ago when it rose no matter what was going on).
Vgrinshpun's analysis above and in the Gigafactory Thread are Top Notch and much appreciated. I would love for Tesla (Elon) to talk about what they think production will be like in 2016
vgrin's analysis is always awesome. Take heed, readers!
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