Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[jhm]

I was just reading some of the stuff on Seeking Alpha. One of the ideas being floated by owners of 2015 and 2016 puts is that tesla has the production capacity and the battery cells to be producing at a much higher level, but chooses not to because it would push demand down and they couldn't sell in the 100,000 range. In addition, as their thesis runs, it would demonstrate that demand isn't all there if they were to make more cars. Interesting hypothesis, though I doubt that Tesla would waste their time not making cars just so the few that they sell can be priced higher.

If Tesla were faced with limited demand for the Model S and had surplus batteries, they would have accelerated rhetoric Model X to market and have extended battery pack deals with Toyota and others. It's a pretty weak short hypothesis that is based simply on the suggestion that management is lying about being battery constrained. Again if this were the case, then in any given quarter they could sell a lot more cars just to shake off shorts. That is, if management is voluntarily withholding sales, then it is within their power not to do so. So this would be a precarious short position indeed.

 

[Curt Renz]

I was just reading some of the stuff on Seeking Alpha. One of the ideas being floated by owners of 2015 and 2016 puts is that tesla has the production capacity and the battery cells to be producing at a much higher level, but chooses not to because it would push demand down and they couldn't sell in the 100,000 range. In addition, as their thesis runs, it would demonstrate that demand isn't all there if they were to make more cars. Interesting hypothesis, though I doubt that Tesla would waste their time not making cars just so the few that they sell can be priced higher.

Production constraint results in long wait times for deliveries. That may discourage many potential buyers. Shortening the wait time by speeding up production should increase demand.

 

[Causalien]

We are only $20 away from the ATH yet I am not seeing pages flying by after a refresh. In fact, nobody is posting. Which made me conclude that this is not a bubble move.

 

[austinEV]

It is just riding the upper Bollinger band up. This is what healthy runs look like. 1-2% day just doesn't pull in the comments Helps that market indexes are making ATH's.

 

[FluxCap]

We are only $20 away from the ATH yet I am not seeing pages flying by after a refresh. In fact, nobody is posting. Which made me conclude that this is not a bubble move.

Agreed. I bought into it despite my trepidation and am doing fairly well.

 

[pz1975]

The gap filled back to 237.22, which I was expecting. I sold all my weeklies between 239-240 today and bought some back at 237.60 (missed the low point). Let's see if it continues up now or if there is some consolidation/pullback for the day. TSLA is more enjoyable to follow when the overall sentiment is bullish.

 

[clmason]

We are only $20 away from the ATH yet I am not seeing pages flying by after a refresh. In fact, nobody is posting. Which made me conclude that this is not a bubble move.

Very happy to see $240 and would not mind one bit if it consolidated here until the next big news or quarterly report.

 

[Papafox]

234 at present. Looks like a short attack is underway.

 

[FluxCap]

234 at present. Looks like a short attack is underway.

I might agree, but the dip and recovery beginning at around 12:45pm EST mirrors the dip and recovery in the NASDAQ, which was theoretically / temporarily spooked by some Iraq news:

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Selling efforts have picked up in the past 30 minutes. The catalyst for the slide is unclear, although reports of a Syrian warplane striking Iraq and killing 50 people has made the rounds as the potential culprit.

Geopolitical developments have acted as the spoiler before. If nothing else, in a thinly-traded market like this, worrisome headlines on the geopolitical front can be enough to keep the market from running away to the upside and encourage some profit-taking activity after a big run during the quarter.

There hasn't been a rush to the exits, however, nor has there been a spike in oil prices after the aforementioned headline. The Treasury market, though, has seen a little pop despite an average 2-yr note auction that drew a high yield of 0.511% on a light indirect bid (23.2%) that trailed the prior 12-auction average of 27.4%. Similarly, the 3.23 bid-to-cover ratio was below the prior 12-auction average of 3.34.

The 10-yr note is up 12 ticks with its yield at 2.587%.

 

[mershaw2001]

i decided to up my position at 232.9, with a covered call position (sold 240 for end of week). Healthy support here, though it wasn't as much volume in the 233 range as I would have liked. I still think that tesla has positive momentum in the 4-6 week timeframe and we're looking at forming a base before moving to 250. I feel very strongly that tesla moves in one direction for 4 or 6 weeks and then gets exhausted and switches, but that could also be a result of the nasdaq direction as flux pointed out.

 

[GravityPull]

A reply was sent to your gmail account on 6/14.

I just checked my gmail inbox again. No email from Teslamotorsclub on 6/14

 

[NigelM]

I just checked my gmail inbox again. No email from Teslamotorsclub on 6/14

No, it was from my email address as I'm pretty sure you know. Please don't keep posting in this thread.

 

[gfountain1]

I've been guilty of shorting for the last 2 weeks but at $240 I couldn't resist.

 

[chickensevil]

The gap filled back to 237.22, which I was expecting. I sold all my weeklies between 239-240 today and bought some back at 237.60 (missed the low point). Let's see if it continues up now or if there is some consolidation/pullback for the day. TSLA is more enjoyable to follow when the overall sentiment is bullish.

I don't think this was any kind of a gap fill... There has been no after hours jumps. If you look at the after hours trading it as all been really flat. The big run up monday was all during normal trading hours... or am I not understanding how a gap technical is supposed to work?

edit: sorry, take that back, I was looking at the wrong charts... I think my browser is a little messed up. Today had an opening that was a bit higher than the previous close...

 

[pz1975]

I don't think this was any kind of a gap fill... There has been no after hours jumps. If you look at the after hours trading it as all been really flat. The big run up monday was all during normal trading hours... or am I not understanding how a gap technical is supposed to work?

edit: sorry, take that back, I was looking at the wrong charts... I think my browser is a little messed up. Today had an opening that was a bit higher than the previous close...

I am not a technical expert, but I thought the fact that it opened $1.50 higher than it had closed yesterday meant there was a small gap to fill. Correct me if I am wrong. I was definitely wrong in my hope that it would bounce back up after that!

 

[chickensevil]

I am not a technical expert, but I thought the fact that it opened $1.50 higher than it had closed yesterday meant there was a small gap to fill. Correct me if I am wrong. I was definitely wrong in my hope that it would bounce back up after that!

Nope you are right, I don't know if you saw my edit or not... I missed that. I think my browser was acting up on me or something... when I got it correctly refreshed I saw the opening gap...

 

[TSLAopt]

I've been guilty of shorting for the last 2 weeks but at $240 I couldn't resist.

Goodluck, I, hope you cover while its profitable as this stock can really ruin a short's brokerage account very quickly.
Do you have a price point in mind where you plan to cover?

 

[kenliles]

I've been guilty of shorting for the last 2 weeks but at $240 I couldn't resist.

break-a-leg

 

[vgrinshpun]

Interesting article in Financial Times: "Electric car groups eye collaboration over charging technology" (Google search link to get through the pay wall): Google

"Nissan and BMW, two of Tesla's main competitors, are keen on talks with the US carmaker to co-operate on charging networks, sources at the three companies told Financial News"

"Between them, Nissan, the world's biggest electric-car manufacturer, BMW and Tesla account for 80 per cent of the world's battery electric-car sales"

Although the article indicates that timing of the BMW and Tesla meeting on Wednesday of last week, just one day before the Tesla's patent announcement is coincidental, I am wondering if the timing of the announcement is designed to spur the active three way talks. As with any negotiation, the three parties - Tesla, BMW and Nissan - were probably aware of each other's interest, so Tesla decided to catalyze others to act on their intentions by making a first decisive and bold move.

During the industry event in Munich BMW CEO Norbert Reithofer said that: " sharing Tesla's Supercharging network would be a good thing for BMW" He also said that Tesla's success shows the e-mobility has a future".

http://www.streetinsider.com/Inside...+be+Good+for+BMW+-+CEO+Reithofer/9611502.html

 

[Fast Laner]

Car manufacturer on the wrong e - track?

This article on the website of main german tv channel ARD shows the german brain when it gets to e - mobillity.

Autobauer auf dem falschen Elektrotrip? | Branchen | Anlagestrategie | Börse Aktuell | boerse.ARD.de

This website hasn't had one single article in favor of e - mobility, all of their articles are clearly against e - mobility.