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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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I think he's going to break ground on all 3 - and stagger build all 3

I repeat my clarification:

In response to a question at the May 7 conference call regarding the groundbreaking of the first Gigafactory, Elon answered, "...probably next month." He then said one or two more other sites could have ground broken a month or two later. The announcement of which site was to enter full scale construction would be made later this year. He noted that the cost of extra groundbreaking would be far less than the cost of delay in completion of the first Gigafactory.

My conjecture today was that perhaps those two or three groundbreakings would occur simultaneously. That may explain why no ground was broken in June.

Meanwhile, I agree that that the intent is to complete a number of Gigafactories in staggered fashion.
 
Two important news items told to me by a high-up at a local SC:

1. Model X reveal will occur at the Detroit Auto Show. I asked if this is certain and he said the information came from someone "very credible" in the company and that he was sure it was true. It makes sense in terms of timing with Q2 as the expected time for deliveries to start.

2. I asked about why wait times suddenly increased to 3/4 months recently. He said it is because they are shutting down the lines at Fremont for 1 month in order to completely re-do them to make them much more efficient. I then asked about making guidance and he said that the new lines will be significantly more efficient and allow them to make up for the shut down time in order to meet yearly guidance (said he was "optimistic" of this). I didn't ask specifically about Q3 guidance but I think it might be guided lower because of this (with yearly kept the same).
 
2. He said it is because they are shutting down the lines at Fremont for 1 month in order to completely re-do them to make them much more efficient.

Your source loses credibility right there, since the plant will be down for only 2 weeks (beginning the end of next week). We have learned in the past that people at the stores and SC's may not be in the know, but for some reason try to pass along info as if they were.
 
Your source loses credibility right there, since the plant will be down for only 2 weeks (beginning the end of next week). We have learned in the past that people at the stores and SC's may not be in the know, but for some reason try to pass along info as if they were.

Not so sure about that. I know someone that had a factory tour and was told they had to postpone for a full month.

It is also quite possible that a line will be down for two weeks, yet the factory, due to work on a second line, will be closed a month.
 
Not so sure about that. I know someone that had a factory tour and was told they had to postpone for a full month.

It is also quite possible that a line will be down for two weeks, yet the factory, due to work on a second line, will be closed a month.

100% positive factory is not planning to shut down for a month. Factory tour being postponed a month bc they do not want to bring people through right after they start back up. If factory was down a month, tours would be postponed longer than that.
 
Your source loses credibility right there, since the plant will be down for only 2 weeks (beginning the end of next week). We have learned in the past that people at the stores and SC's may not be in the know, but for some reason try to pass along info as if they were.

I'm just passing on what I heard. He seemed pretty sure but you are right - hard to know for sure.
 
Two important news items told to me by a high-up at a local SC:

1. Model X reveal will occur at the Detroit Auto Show. I asked if this is certain and he said the information came from someone "very credible" in the company and that he was sure it was true. It makes sense in terms of timing with Q2 as the expected time for deliveries to start.

2. I asked about why wait times suddenly increased to 3/4 months recently. He said it is because they are shutting down the lines at Fremont for 1 month in order to completely re-do them to make them much more efficient. I then asked about making guidance and he said that the new lines will be significantly more efficient and allow them to make up for the shut down time in order to meet yearly guidance (said he was "optimistic" of this). I didn't ask specifically about Q3 guidance but I think it might be guided lower because of this (with yearly kept the same).

PZ: Thanks for the info but I hope your source is incorrect. Waiting to reveal the X in Jan 2015 would mean that actual production of Founders and Sigs would not begin till after that time. While we all know about 'Tesla Time' I would hope the reveal would happen in Q3 2014, Q4 at the latest. It would appear that TM has enough cars in the pipeline to help Q3 delivery numbers with the factory shut down for 2 weeks and I hope that is all it is.

I had two well placed TM employees ( one local/one in Freemont) tell me that the 'super X AWD' would be unveiled in Q2 2014 back in the fall of 2013. I am still waiting:biggrin:
 
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