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So this is so called "perfect exection" of TM ? Well hinted June ground breaking for GF has been slipped, and it does affect the stock price. If TM keep executing like this, what's the probability we can trust 2017 GEN 3 timeline and 30% battary cost reduction goal?
Gen 3 timeline: 0% guaranteed to be late by some degree.
30% battery cost reduction: 110% - given track record on beating nearly all product specification goals
That's Tesla- plan your investments accordingly IMHO
Why couldn't the delay be attributed to the four States giving more incentives to Tesla at the last moment?
No, I think they'll beat the 30% cost reduction by 10%+ = 35% ;
most of their performance specifications have similar beats track record- and I've heard Elon talk in terms of beating that 30% number
Ken----I was referring to your prediction of 0% chance they would Not miss the first delivery guidance on Gen3. So, to be clear you feel TM will deliver Gen 3on time with 100%certainty?
dhrivnak
Active Member
I assume Ken is thinking like I am that I bet they will be late with Gen3. This is due to them being late on cars 3 out of 3 times. They have always come through with a quality product but with so many factors out of their control it is hard to meet their very aggressive time lines.
Heck they are 6 months late on a silly CHAdeMO adapter.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Don't assume they will be late
Here are the odds as I see it. Gen3 coming out late 2016 or early 2017 - 45%. Mid-late 2017 - 40%. Early-mid 2018 - 15%. Late 2018 or later - 10%.
These odds change as we get closer to 2017 and Tesla adjusts their goals or not. Currently it appears they are still shooting for late 2016 or early 2017. In a year if they are still shooting for late 2016 or early 2017 then the odds of that happening go up significantly. There are a ton of moving parts that need to align for the release of Gen3 and many of those parts are already in motion like the gigafactory, prototype design, etc.
These odds change as we get closer to 2017 and Tesla adjusts their goals or not. Currently it appears they are still shooting for late 2016 or early 2017. In a year if they are still shooting for late 2016 or early 2017 then the odds of that happening go up significantly. There are a ton of moving parts that need to align for the release of Gen3 and many of those parts are already in motion like the gigafactory, prototype design, etc.
pz1975
Active Member
Tesla May Have A Huge Unfunded Warranty Problem Due To Defective Drivetrains - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Anyone know anything about the validity of this?
Anyone know anything about the validity of this?
pz: The author has shorted TSLA from the price of $90. He found a thread on TM forum where the discussion started about the number of motors replaced in the Edmunds car and has escalated from there. We really have no data points to know the true numbers. Personally, I am not worried but right now everyone is looking for a way to pull the stock in one direction or another.
A quick note on my odds. I think initial Gen3 release will be very limited numbers and even the first year of production will be limited (ie., less than 100k units). This will allow gigafactory to get online and for the gigafactory and gen3 production to scale together.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Agreed. Being late on Model S was expected due to various factors, being new to the game, recruiting exceptional engineers, tooling, etc. However, most of these variables have been worked out due to acquiring much needed experience from launching S from the ground up.
Being late for Model X was much more of a business decision than anything else. Why in the world would Elon want to expedite X to the market when Tesla is having issues meeting demand? Why would he want to bring a great product like X to the market just to have it sit in showrooms instead of your garage? For one, Panasonic is only capable of supplying Tesla with guidance of 35k cells this year, so it only makes sense to delay X until Panasonic ramps up more cells. Don't forget that in 2012, Tesla's projection for S was 20k and x was to be 15k the following year. Demand for S alone is eating into X's battery cells in 2014, what more do you investors want? To me, delaying X was the perfect business decision. The biggest competitor to the S right now isn't BMW or anyone else, Caddy just dropped the price of their ELR 12k due to demand issues.. The biggest competitor to the S is the X, with reservations about 15k right now. If X was available today, Elon still won't be able to supply the market with it due to S demand being too high. Hence, problem isn't tesla being late, the problem is that the market reacted more positively to the S than any of us, including Elon or Panasonic could have anticipated in our wettest and most wildest dreams. I expect Gen 3's demand to be much much much higher than any of us can imagine... so calm down, and let the ironman do his thing. Again, this is not about tesla being late on promises, its about letting business catch up to demand.
With that said, the whole gigafactory announcement being "late" may also be another smart business decision, picking a state is the easiest process of it all, especially when they're all bending backwards to lure you in..But why do this right away when you can let the decision wait, allowing states to fight, change laws, etc. to your benefit so you can get a better deal that would have long term impact. Ever since Elon has mentioned about the prospect of a "gigafactory," tesla has been in the news every other day (yahoo, cnbc, fox, msn, etc). This gives them much more exposure than billions of dollars can buy on advertisements.. this is the best form of branding you can ask for. As an investor I am much more interested in "branding" my product than short term capital gains on stock prices. If you don't know what branding is or how much corporates spend on branding, look it up. One of the best form of branding you can ask for, is when the very people you elect into office begs for you publicly to come to their state. For the average American who is unemployed, or a young tech engineer who wants a job, or a college student on the verge of graduating, hearing about "tesla" possibly bringing 6,000 jobs to your state, or city is priceless. How many more people who have never heard of tesla suddenly became aware of them because their state's governor or senator has lobbied publicly for tesla to come? Before the gigafactory, tesla was being slandered by some of those very state's politicians. Nowadays, politicians like Sarah Palin has learned to keep her mouth shut while her peers beg for Tesla's business, priceless.
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45%+40%+15%+10% = 110% :biggrin: I truely want to believe 2017 timeline to get GEN 3 out of the door, but if it turns out TM needs 2X of the time to upgrade 2nd line as originally promised, then it would cast serious doubt of TM's execution. Compared to GF and GEN 3 project, it's basically "nothing" to upgrade 2nd line for Model S. If TM continues to slip their own promise, then it'll certainly add volatility to the stock as we see the downtrend pressure right after June.
Haha, shows my math skills.
Hey, who's saying that Tesla will need 2x the time to upgrade their line? Isn't that pure conjecture and one that I find no basis in... unless someone has some real data points to show.
So far, I heard such "rumor" in this thread and some TMC member even pointed out that there should be no surprise to see such delay. However it will surprise me if it turns out TM does have delay for such "small" project in controlable future, then how can we trust TM's grand plan for GF and GEN 3 in next 3-4 years? Hopefully rumor is rumor and we'll hear the true story from Q2 ER call.
In 2009, Tesla was hoping to get the Model S out in 2011. But in early 2010 (as far as I can tell), they adjusted and said that the Model S would come out mid-2012. This is the statement they made when they went IPO in mid-2010 as well and the date they gave investors in their IPO Roadshow. Some people say the Model S was late. Well, sure if you're looking back at 2009 or earlier. But if you're looking at 2010, the Model S was projected to be released in mid-2012 and while most people could not believe that would be possible, Tesla pulled through. From early 2010 until mid-2012, they did not change their timeline but they delivered on time.
The Model X, I agree it was a business decision and a good one to delay it a year. They could have released it at end of 2013, but it just doesn't make sense since Model S demand is so much higher than anticipated. There appears to have been a slippage of a few months due to the falcon doors, but again to me that's reasonable since Model S demand is still so high and they're still catching up on production.
Gen3? We'll see. But I think it seems like most people are discounting a late 2016 or early 2017 release, it appears that Tesla is still shooting for that timeline (also this article). I think a late-2016 release is probably overly optimistic, so I'm expecting a early or mid 2017 release (with small quantities). I know a lot of people are thinking Tesla will be late (ie., 2018) for Gen3, but if you think about it Tesla has a lot of engineers that are now free to work on things (ie., Model S/X is done) so it makes sense for their engineers to gear up on Gen3 engineering. Even now, Model X is pretty much wrapped up and is undergoing testing and tooling, etc. So, a lot of engineers have probably moved on from the Model X already. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla already has quite of a few engineers working on Gen3 already. Also, their design team probably already has finished or is finishing Gen3 clay models and are probably working hard on getting a prototype design.
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I'd consider the "rumor" as conjecture until we can get some evidence that Tesla really is slipping on the line expansion.
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