Ken----I was referring to your prediction of 0% chance they would Not miss the first delivery guidance on Gen3. So, to be clear you feel TM will deliver Gen 3on time with 100%certainty?
No sorry AIMc. I think they will be late with GEN III (dhrivnak interp). It's going to beat specs as is GF battery cost, but it will be later than current projection in order to guarantee exceeding those specs. That's my prediction. I don think it will be so late that Tesla has a problem. Mod S/X will more than carry the day until then. But my advice to investors is to plan for a Gen III delay of 6 months+. And frankly this is the correct priority.
GEN III needs to be full up make or break and Elon knows it. My opinion, he'll maintain aggressive timeline, but won't meet it because (as with Roadster, ModS, ModX) he knows a few months means nothing compared to nailing the spec and exceeding the expectation. In addition, the GF dependency doubles the complexity of meeting time goals.
It's no big deal relative to company viability IMO. Just plan the investment accordingly and make sure all LEAPS and stock holds are calculated out longer than the stated goals for delivery. The challenge will be build up and hype won't wait for that. We'll get early teasers that will jack the stock, then disappoint in time performance. It's not an issue, just plan for it. Plan to have very long term LEAP / stock and have some cash ready on reports of delay. Have a plan for adding on those dips, while holding the long positions.
We all know (and so does Elon), GEN III is the culmination of success for Tesla. He rightfully will not risk it's performance over a few months delay (if ModS,X is any guide). He's thinking decades ahead; He pushes for fast, but always defaults to performance. Don't take my position as negative, just plan for more time than stated projections.
But also plan for more performance than stated. Tesla will surprise with the final result IMO and the wait will be more than worth it. IMO if you plan for the delay you'll leverage it better. Don't forget all those betting against will still be at play and stronger, also knowing this is THE play for EV viability.
There WILL be delay reports, and the bears will pounce driving the dips. Be ready to buy those while riding thru is what I'd like to communicate as my opinion. May sound a bit fuzzy, but more specifically, stay long, but don't buy options based on GENIII stated time goals- position months ahead of those even as they move from here. Play any medium term option on other events. GENIII timeline will be floating relative to it's performance specification (including safety iterations) rather than a stated time goal.
Haven't been posting much, but monitoring - very busy. In interest of disclosure, I maintain long stock-J16 LEAPS $300, $360 -roll program with TSLA as a top portfolio position. Coming ER will have some challenges, but strong forward projections IMO. -recommend rolling all J15s forward by that time latest- and have some cash ready for J17s coming. I believe TSLA is Cycle 3 Nov issue
