Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Chickenlittle]

Another owner reported end of quarter push. It looks all three reside in CA and most likely pick up at Factory.



- - - Updated - - -

Could it be battery cell supply more than expected and the production just needs to catch up battery cell ramp up? Anyway, as soon as TM hold the guidance as bottomline, any (small) surprise in ER is always welcome!

Looks to me like the board is bipolar and has stopped taking their mess with the euphoria phase revving up

 

[ckessel]

Looks to me like the board is bipolar and has stopped taking their mess with the euphoria phase revving up

Heh, it always happens, but that's a bit harsh.

Whether they make or beat the number is almost irrelevant. All that matters is year long guidance and whether they achieved their run rate. I'm sort of hoping for a missed Q3 to artificially drive the stock down for a little bit since I'd like to get back in at a depressed price point. Though if they surpassed the desired run rate by a decent amount, even if they miss Q3, that might be cause for some excitement.

 

[Jack6591]

Ever since Jerome's "Reckless" comment, Elon has been in consistency mode. Q3 will be a slight beat, bet on it.

 

[JRP3]

Looks to me like the board is bipolar and has stopped taking their mess with the euphoria phase revving up

Or self medicating.

 

[Auzie]

Looks to me like the board is bipolar and has stopped taking their mess with the euphoria phase revving up

That seems to be the case :biggrin: Count me in with the crazy crowd

Euphoria feels so good, especially with a lot of money at stake

I bought more leaps

 

[MartinAustin]

There's a tweet from Phil LeBeau saying Chinese owners are seeing delays in repairs...

 

[Lump]

There's a tweet from Phil LeBeau saying Chinese owners are seeing delays in repairs...

Chinese Tesla owners complain of insurance hassle and long delays for repairs | South China Morning Post

 

[Monsoon]

Hell, we have the same thing here in the U.S. with Geico!
Don't get me started...

 

[Curt Renz]

Chinese Tesla owners complain of insurance hassle and long delays for repairs | South China Morning Post

I'd be surprised if the decision to replace rather than repair is due to a desire to maintain company secrets. Not only have the patents been open sourced, but also competitors have undoubtedly bought Model S's and torn them apart. Besides, if repairs are done at a Tesla Service Center, what secrets are being revealed?

It seems more likely that the company wants to examine damage to key parts by having them shipped back to California. So the owner gets replacement parts. That's what happened when humming was heard emanating from some motors earlier this year. Apparently Tesla engineers want to get to the core of any problem and quickly find a solution that prevents it from recurring. That could include finding ways to minimize damage. This is a sensible procedure regarding a warranty issue, but apparently can become sticky when it involves an insurance claim.

 

[Papafox]

Have you listened to "The Point where you might want to buy Tesla"? This analyst doesn't even understand that the 100,000 cars per year figure is a desired delivery rate at the end of 2015, not the number of cars planned for delivery in 2015. Her contention is that since Tesla will not deliver 100,000 cars in 2015 the company is falling short and the stock is going to fall. Not surprisingly, she lists a number close to the 200 day ma as her suspected landing point (just like the last dip). What these uninformed "analysts" don't understand is that many of the biggest questionmarks about Tesla's future have been resolved favorably lately (Panasonic agreement, Gigafactory site selections, generous Nevada tax reductions, etc.). How can an analyst be believed when her whole story is build upon a misconception?

Granted that the macro world of stock indexes and the economy is a wildcard, but unless something dramatic transpires I don't see us falling anywhere near that low. Too many people want to own this stock and the future looks too bright. Nonetheless, look for the fud-slingers to try pulling the price down lower in the next week or so. The classic tug-of-war between shorts and longs is alive and well.

 

[tray loader]

GERMANY announces big tax cuts and subsidiaries for EVs to accelerate Electro Mobility adaption and to reach the future goals earlier.Should help.

 

[vgrinshpun]

GERMANY announces big tax cuts and subsidiaries for EVs to accelerate Electro Mobility adaption and to reach the future goals earlier.Should help.

Link?

 

[tray loader]

Link?

http://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Navigation/EN/Invest/Industries/Smarter-business/Smart-mobility/national-electromobility-development-plan.html

That is the plan.Today they announced the subsidiaries to reach it.Link to come.

 

[Fast Laner]

So far I haven't found anything regarding big tax cuts or subsidaries, and i have checked the draft law that has passed the kabinett (all secretaries of state ps chanzler) today.
A link explaining the elektomobilitaetsgesetz from the german government:

Bundesregierung | Aktuelles | Sonderrechte für Elektroautos

Following a link to the draft law "elektromobilitaetsgesetz"
http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Verkehr/emog_gesetzentwurf_bf.pdf

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Telsa (TSLA) Sales 'Robust' - Goldman Sachs/ Patrick Archambault

he! please read. published on StreetInsider.

Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambaul said General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor (NYSE: F) are seeing sustainable growth in China. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) was also mentioned in the report, with Model S sales in China described as "robust."
"Model S demand in China is robust with wait times having expanded out to six months post the 3Q shutdown. Adding service centers is a key priority with delivery teams working around the clock to meet increasing delivery targets," said Archambaul.
"The reservation consists of an initial Rmb15k payment and after two weeks the customer is required to make a Rmb250k payment to secure a production birth. The rest is payable on delivery although the customer is notified of the payment once the vehicle ships, which can take 25 days.
Right now Tesla does not get the subsidies for EVs that are offered to some of the locally built makers like BYD. The company is working with local officials and could conceivably be added to the list down the road in the second phase of implementation when the government's EV rules are further developed. Local sourcing is a relevant discussion point,” continued the analyst.
“With distribution likely to be the real pinch point shorter term, we think the strategy of leveraging local outsourced domestic service location makes sense for expanding distribution and service, as it’s very scalable and cuts down on\ upfront investments for things like body work and painting. From all indications demand appears very strong, and Tesla has ambitious targets. Industry officials we spoke to suggested that Tesla reservations had achieved 4,000 in China as of mid Sept,” he added.

 

[tray loader]

Here´s what the GERMANS ruled today:


Google Übersetzer

 

[replicant]

Bloomberg: Germany Proposes Free Parking to Spur Electric-Car Sales - Bloomberg

 

[Derek Vinyard]

the official news from BBG.

 

[InTheShadows]

I was thinking this morning about my current TSLA position. My holdings are lower right now because of my short term sidelines posture. Then I started thinking, "What if the Model X was revealed today."

It's probably unlikely but does anyone think there is more than a 20% chance that TM will reveal the Model X before the ER?

 

[AlMc]

I was thinking this morning about my current TSLA position. My holdings are lower right now because of my short term sidelines posture. Then I started thinking, "What if the Model X was revealed today."

It's probably unlikely but does anyone think there is more than a 20% chance that TM will reveal the Model X before the ER?


This is one of the biggest questions for short term investing I have. I believe there is greater than 20% chance BUT less than 50% chance.....I know that is not THAT helpful but I am struggling with this myself.