Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[evme]

I think a lot of analysts are not understanding the prospects of an automated world and Tesla's role in it.

An automated car is mostly software with innovative hardware. And the software and innovative hardware capital of the world is Silicon Valley. The car companies are run by dinosaurs that are too slow to adopt and resistant to change. Tesla will win out simply due to quicker integration of culture and closer connection. I think all of us remember the story of how Tesla worked with Toyota on the RAV4 and Toyota's reaction to Tesla's changes.

What is more, Tesla is evolving little by little to be more than just a car company, they are a supplier for batteries to other cars. They are supplier to solar city and other grid storage uses. And they will probably in the future go to other ventures like Hyperloop, electric jets, electric boats and etc.

And just as a kicker, who do you think will own the first car factory on Mars?

 

[ggies07]

I think a lot of analysts are not understanding the prospects of an automated world and Tesla's role in it.

An automated car is mostly software with innovative hardware. And the software and innovative hardware capital of the world is Silicon Valley. The car companies are run by dinosaurs that are too slow to adopt and resistant to change. Tesla will win out simply due to quicker integration of culture and closer connection. I think all of us remember the story of how Tesla worked with Toyota on the RAV4 and Toyota's reaction to Tesla's changes.

I agree. Just look at those tiny "interactive" screens that have been in cars for years now. Tesla comes out and ,BAM, puts a 17" touchscreen that does everything. No more buttons....and to the left we still have buttons in ICEs......

 

[eepic]

Jonas: Well, I think if you ask people why they bought the - why they spent $110-120 thousand or whatever on a Tesla, it's probably not because it's clean. It's because it's just a riot to drive. The driving pleasure, the accleration, the performance, the handling and what you feel as a driver and the stimulation you get is incredible. And you take that away - and this is not just a Tesla issue, the "ultimate driving machine" is BMW's logo too, what happens in the future? So all auto companies are confronting this complete revolution and re-invention of what we call shared autonomy and I guess the answer to Carlos' question is: Tesla has to make the best autonomous car. It's a different model than what they are doing today.

So basically:
1. Tesla's driving experience is so fantastic that it's one of the key strengths
2. A concern that driving experience will be a much less important factor when full autonomy is widespread

The former is a nice compliment, and the latter is not going to be an issue for at least a decade when we have full autonomy in mainstream cars.

 

[Bunky]

"We agree with Elon that the stock is too high but we reiterate our $320 PT"

 

[RobStark]

Does anyone think that governments are going to ban manual controls in the next 15 years? 30 years?

Or simply the owner will be given a choice.

Auto-pilot/autonomous mode for mundane driving and manual control when there is driving pleasure to be had.

 

[AlMc]

Does anyone think that governments are going to ban manual controls in the next 15 years? 30 years?

Or simply the owner will be given a choice.

Auto-pilot/autonomous mode for mundane driving and manual control when there is driving pleasure to be had.

I don't see mandatory autonomous driving for a long time (25+ years). I could see a special highway lane (similar to HOV one) being a nice way to introduce autonomous driving.

 

[callmesam]

Autonomously driven cars will be on the road in less than three years. Adam is right to be concerned.

Elon is right to be concerned.

There will simply be fewer cars to serve the same number of people.

I'm not going to comment on the conspiracy theory, but even Elon has changed his tune of partial autopilot vs. complete autopilot. Can't knock analysts for following his lead.

 

[dha]

Autonomously driven cars will be on the road in less than three years. Adam is right to be concerned.

Elon is right to be concerned.

There will simply be fewer cars to serve the same number of people.

I'm not going to comment on the conspiracy theory, but even Elon has changed his tune of partial autopilot vs. complete autopilot. Can't knock analysts for following his lead.

I am having a really hard time wrapping my head around this whole self-driving argument. Autonomous cars are an absolutely ideal use case for battery-electric vehicles. Range will become a non-issue and fully-charged cars will be deployed around the clock to pick up fares with full knowledge of range requirements, then drive themselves back to charging stations when battery is depleted. Self-driving cars will dramatically increase the market for EVs. With gigafactory #1 matching the entire world's lithium ion production, growing supercharger network, leadership in software and connectivity, not to mention mindshare among top engineers and silicon valley location, I fail to see how the rise of self-driving cars will be anything but a major, major boon to Tesla.

 

[30seconds]

I am having a really hard time wrapping my head around this whole self-driving argument. Autonomous cars are an absolutely ideal use case for battery-electric vehicles. Range will become a non-issue and fully-charged cars will be deployed around the clock to pick up fares with full knowledge of range requirements, then drive themselves back to charging stations when battery is depleted. Self-driving cars will dramatically increase the market for EVs. With gigafactory #1 matching the entire world's lithium ion production, growing supercharger network, leadership in software and connectivity, not to mention mindshare among top engineers and silicon valley location, I fail to see how the rise of self-driving cars will be anything but a major, major boon to Tesla.

+100

 

[Cattledog]

+100

Yup all that. But I also can't see hitting autodrive and then heading south on Hwy 1 right before a dragonfly splatters and obscures the right front sensor...

 

[MikeC]

I don't think autopilot will prevent people from driving Teslas, I think driving a Tesla will prevent people from wanting to use autopilot.

 

[aznt1217]

I don't think we have to worry quite yet. There's significant legal hurdles autonomous driving will have to face. Whats more important is getting to renewable energy transport. To put this into perspective, Self parking cars havent even fully caught on yet.

 

[AlMc]

With the appearance of many DA systems (but not officially confirmed by TM) it appears that we may be seeing a nice positive catalyst.

 

[evme]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/ficosa-ma-panasonic-idUSL3N0RQ06X20140925

Panasonic is buying 50% of Ficosa.


"Ficosa's products include advanced driver assistance systems with safety features such as blind spot detection, assisted parking and lane departure warnings. Panasonic is looking at the joint development of such systems, the sources said."

Coincidence?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Sounds like he got an emergency call from Elon to stop pumping the stock. Or someone connected to his firm sold a lot of calls on Tesla. Or goldman sachs need a break to let all the call options they wrote expire.

And even with all the odd statements, the share price stubbornly holds at $250 or so.

I can't wait for Model X.

 

[jhm]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/ficosa-ma-panasonic-idUSL3N0RQ06X20140925

Panasonic is buying 50% of Ficosa.


"Ficosa's products include advanced driver assistance systems with safety features such as blind spot detection, assisted parking and lane departure warnings. Panasonic is looking at the joint development of such systems, the sources said."

Coincidence?

Should Tesla buy the other 50%?

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I can't wait for Model X.

+ 1

 

[jhm]

Does anyone think that governments are going to ban manual controls in the next 15 years? 30 years?

Or simply the owner will be given a choice.

Auto-pilot/autonomous mode for mundane driving and manual control when there is driving pleasure to be had.

I don't see an outright ban. But insurance companies very well could set lower premiums for self-driven vehicles. So if you want to drive your car yourself, you pay more in insurance for that privilige. Also if you do get into an accident with a self-driven vehicle, your legal opponent will have a ton of sensory data to document in court. So if may be quite rare for a self-driven car to be found at fault. So basically the liability you assume for the thrill of driving your own car may become too costly for most. Just a theory. Not sure I buy it or even like it.

 

[evme]

Should Tesla buy the other 50%?

500 million USD is a bit expensive for Tesla to buy at this point and personally I think the software is far more important than the hardware. But with Tesla recently implementing some of these automated features and Panasonic making a purchase, Just wondering if there might be a correlation.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I don't see mandatory autonomous driving for a long time (25+ years). I could see a special highway lane (similar to HOV one) being a nice way to introduce autonomous driving.

Never thought about it before but to actually drive yourself may need to go to a track