Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[anticitizen13.7]

what ever it is, it must be a first, and it must be significant enough to make it the highlight of the evening. It would also be in line with his many previous references to automated driving technology being closer than people think, the large numbers of engineers they hired in the field, and his comment on the earnings call about R&D expenses being much better than they look because they are not showing all their cards.

At this point I'm just out of ideas, so I'm just hoping for an awesome surprise. There's only 12 hours to go!

 

[Julian Cox]

what if

A = Roadster
B = S
C = X

It is time to reveal the D.

they are building a gigafactory for it after all - now would be a good time to start accumulating tangible demand data against which Tesla and Panasonic can scale investment with confidence.

 

[austinEV]

Yeah, it would be the first time he would flatly state something only to prove it false later. I don't think he would ever do that, even as a setup for a really nice surprise.

I also think that what will be revealed will be the Model S AWD plus the driver-assist technology, and that nothing else is on the menu. I believe the grave-digging remark is inconsequential, like others pointed out already.

The question is how advanced Tesla's driver-assist technology is, how exciting their demo will be, and how it will be received by the market. I don't care how the bots see it in the first 50 milliseconds, but how the humans react in the AH (if there's time left) and on Friday.

And the thing is, based on all the clues coming from Elon, in particular the one about the Internet missing "the magnitude" of the advance, I see a significant chance that this will be big. I don't see Elon organizing an exclusive event merely to announce things like lane departure and adaptive cruise control, or other stuff that competing sedans have had for years. Automated highway driving is a possibility, even though it sounds mighty ambitious, but what ever it is, it must be a first, and it must be significant enough to make it the highlight of the evening. It would also be in line with his many previous references to automated driving technology being closer than people think, the large numbers of engineers they hired in the field, and his comment on the earnings call about R&D expenses being much better than they look because they are not showing all their cards.

If this is about automated driving, the market should reward it. Adam Jonas used the prospects of this technology as a reason to put the brakes on the stock, but if Tesla is proving to be the leader in this field too, then consistency demands that the stock should rise. Because, of course, the markets are always consistent and rational...

Anyway, I'm placing my bets on the assumption that this is one of the cards up their sleeve, and it's an ace.

I too am trusting that it will be a good reveal and well received, and have bought calls accordingly. However, remember they once hosted a big event to show battery swapping, a technology they have never and might never actually roll out. I am looking for this event to better their record of judging what is exciting and important.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I too am trusting that it will be a good reveal and well received, and have bought calls accordingly. However, remember they once hosted a big event to show battery swapping, a technology they have never and might never actually roll out. I am looking for this event to better their record of judging what is exciting and important.

The context of the battery swap event was different though. Model S was a fairly new product at the time. There was also lingering criticism of recharge times vs. gasoline refueling times, so it made sense for Tesla to demonstrate what was possible with the fast battery swap.

Tesla drivers seem happy with the Supercharger network, and I haven't seen calls for deployment of swap stations. In hindsight the swap demo doesn't look like a big deal, but I enjoyed watching the event regardless.

 

[eepic]

The context of the battery swap event was different though. Model S was a fairly new product at the time. There was also lingering criticism of recharge times vs. gasoline refueling times, so it made sense for Tesla to demonstrate what was possible with the fast battery swap.

Tesla drivers seem happy with the Supercharger network, and I haven't seen calls for deployment of swap stations. In hindsight the swap demo doesn't look like a big deal, but I enjoyed watching the event regardless.

I think the battery swap was solely meant to capture the extra California emission credits (that were skewed towards FCV). Even at the announcement the fact that they said they would have one pilot station showed they weren't really committing to it. It was a good mental exercise for people to realize that if you had the option of free or faster, you would probably choose free anyways.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, this is a surprising rise, I thought we would just sit around the low 260s all day, but it looks like the stock really wants to go for a run. On this we might really pop out tomorrow since we have more than enough information at this point that noone should be "disappointed" tonight when there is no X or 3.

Note that we are rebelling hard against the overall market right now... so this price action is almost certainly 100% based on Tesla news alone.

 

[FluxCap]

The very large order book that was artificially holding the stock at 260 looks to have been removed, unchaining the stock to move much faster. I do not think we have seen the end of this run.

Edit: then again I could also have just called the intraday top.

Also, if the P85D is near 3 seconds 0-60, outclassing nearly every other sedan ever made, then I get credit for guessing it first in this thread.

 

[chickensevil]

Is it just me, or are we potentially floating the Nasdaq right now? Did some other stock bump out a really great day today? Because the stocks I have in a watchlist just to balance against (YHOO, AMZN, FB, SCTY) all of them are down to potentially flat right now. Yet, TSLA is up over 2% right now. It is just kinda funny to see us pulling the market for a change, instead of the market pulling us.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is a snap shot that should be a pretty good representation of the Nasdaq (QQQ is thrown in for good measure), and everything is not doing so hot today... except for like TSLA and APPL...

 

[Robert.Boston]

Total capitalization on the NASDAQ is about $10 trillion, of which TSLA represents about 0.32%. So, no, TSLA isn't moving the market.

 

[FluxCap]

Total capitalization on the NASDAQ is about $10 trillion, of which TSLA represents about 0.32%. So, no, TSLA isn't moving the market.

Indeed. In fact, it looks like the sharp intraday NASDAQ dip of the last few minutes is dragging TSLA down with it.

 

[brianman]

The context of the battery swap event was different though. Model S was a fairly new product at the time. There was also lingering criticism of recharge times vs. gasoline refueling times, so it made sense for Tesla to demonstrate what was possible with the fast battery swap.

Tesla drivers seem happy with the Supercharger network, and I haven't seen calls for deployment of swap stations. In hindsight the swap demo doesn't look like a big deal, but I enjoyed watching the event regardless.

It's arguable that it was counterproductive though. I hear at least once a month from people that think/assume that swapping is available but have never heard of the supercharger network. The latter has an impact on my driving experience, while the former does not.

 

[JRod0802]

If Tesla can get to 3.3 seconds they would be the fastest 4 door sedan on road. AFAIK Current title belongs to Audi RS7 at 3.4s.

According to this wiki page, the two fastest production 4 door cars on the road are the 2014 Audi RS7 and the 2014 Mercedes-Benz E63 AMG S-Model 4matic, both at 3.2 seconds:

List of fastest production cars by acceleration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to CNBC, tsla is higher today due to a credit suisse report...

More specifically, "Tesla added to Credit Suisse global focus list" about 5 hours ago

According to analyst Don Galves of Credit Suisse:

We believe that Electric Vehicles have inherent advantages vs. internal combustion vehicles and will be disruptive to the $1 trillion+ new vehicle industry (slowly, over a long period of time). Tesla has significant competitive advantages that we believe are sustainable. We see major battery cost reductions as highly probable and leading to near cost-parity to internal combustion vehicles by 2017, while still offering ~$2k per year in fuel savings to the customer, which can either drop to margin or be used to drive share. Production volume step-changes in 4Q14 and 2H15 (leading to operating leverage which should provide some view of EBIT margin potential), and early 2015 launch of Model X SUV, are potential positive catalysts.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-tesla-motors-is-a-top-pick-at-credit-suisse/

​

 

[chickensevil]

Total capitalization on the NASDAQ is about $10 trillion, of which TSLA represents about 0.32%. So, no, TSLA isn't moving the market.

I didn't think the index itself tracked everything on the Nasdaq, just the top 100... Otherwise the index value would be higher than the Dow.

 

[eepic]

I didn't think the index itself tracked everything on the Nasdaq, just the top 100... Otherwise the index value would be higher than the Dow.

Nope, but I think Tesla is about 0.7% of the weight of the NASDAQ-100

 

[Curt Renz]

I didn't think the index itself tracked everything on the Nasdaq, just the top 100... Otherwise the index value would be higher than the Dow.

The NASDAQ Composite is what is usually posted in the media and is currently at 4401. It is composed of the more than 3000 stocks traded on the NASDAQ exchange. It is what is commonly referred to as "The NASDAQ". The NASDAQ-100 is an index of about 100 large non-financial NASDAQ stocks and is currently at 3990. The PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF is based on the NASDAQ-100. Both of these indices include Tesla Motors.

 

[FluxCap]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/09/usa-fed-bullard-idUSL2N0S41IZ20141009

Bullard just intimated at a 1Q 2015 rate hike. The market was expecting 4Q 2015 rate hike based on yesterday's FOMC minutes. That is why the market, and TSLA, are currently tanking hard. This may not end well.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Diving a bit after 1PM, but mostly holding. News feed isn't complaining about no Model X reveal. Pre-sell on the pre-news?

 

[FluxCap]

Diving a bit after 1PM, but mostly holding. News feed isn't complaining about no Model X reveal. Pre-sell on the pre-news?

Nope, it's the market.

 

[SteveG3]

If 1,800 people answering this MarketWatch poll bear some correlation to market participants who impact TSLA, close to 40% expect a new model revealed

What is the Tesla D? Take our poll - MarketWatch

flip side, as Elon said, dual motor and/or driver assist's significance may be underestimated at this point.