Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Johan]

Additionally, here's a quote from Adam Jonas' October 10th TSLA report (day after the event) that, despite his recent odd blatherings, is of interest:

Thanks for the note FluxCap! Looks like Jonas is back on his meds. However bright the future he portraits sounds, don't forget what will happen when the competion all apply Moore's law to their ICEs.

 

[CyberDutchie]

By the way som very perceptive people before me on this forum have pointed it out, and I pointed it out just a couple of days ago: The 40 week SMA has historically been and extremely good indicator of local bottoms. Today's bottom was $221. Guess what the 40-week SMA is pinned at right now? $221.05. I agree with Citizen-T up thread, today was the bottom. We might trade in a lowish band now both before and after Q3, but my bet is that was the bottom for now and in 3-4 months time we're on to the next peak. Also I put my money where my mouth is.

Your scenario sounds like a repeat of last year, only the dip was a bit more serious then. Problem with peaking in 3-4 months from now, for me at least, is that it is just passed Jan '15 leaps expiration. Same happened last year, the recovery came just a few weeks too late for my Jan '14 calls and several expired worthlessly. Do you think this is timed deliberately?

 

[FANGO]

Agree with your thoughts. The VIN counting (which I was part of, trying to get a handle on production/delivery numbers) was the major reason for the drop, but it would have been mitigated by a strong CC from EM. If you recall, he was not his usual upbeat self, sounded half asleep. Some speculated he was frustrated that he wanted to say more about the GF but could not as the negotiations were ongoing. Whatever the reason, EM can help this Q3ER with a good CC/guidance. I feel it will be needed as I believe the reality (and the group 'think') is that is we made delivery/production guidance it will not be a significant beat.

The drop happened before the call. People were just projecting their emotions onto him, he acted similarly to how he generally does in conference calls in my opinion.

 

[Johan]

Your scenario sounds like a repeat of last year, only the dip was a bit more serious then. Problem with peaking in 3-4 months from now, for me at least, is that it is just passed Jan '15 leaps expiration. Same happened last year, the recovery came just a few weeks too late for my Jan '15 calls and several expired worthlessly. Do you think this is timed deliberately?

Could be, which I why I mostly shopped for Mar15 calls today Though, even though the option market for TSLA is quite active I don't think we should create too many conspiracy theories about expiry dates, max pain and all that. The straight TSLA stock market dwarfs the option market by several orders og magnitude.

 

[Causalien]

I think a substantial drop from here is less likely to happen than not, but it could. I think it's close to a 50% chance. I went slightly into margin on Friday around $240, but am saving the rest of my buying power in case we have a "screaming buying opportunity."

I remember going more than all in twice in TSLA's history for my belief and they have more than paid off. This one feels a bit similar, but hasn't reached that price where I'll feel so insulted that I'd do it again. On the other hand, I think the baton needs to be passed on to some of the newer investors. There's only so many time a speculator's heart can withstand the roller coaster ride that is TSLA.

 

[FANGO]

This is just silly. I can't believe people are that upset about this... None of the other upgrades I have seen anyone get this heated over. As someone who really wishes they had the latest features I feel like this is crazy.

This is a testament to a) how amazing the upgrades are and b) how high tesla has set expectations in terms of how they treat existing customers. So far every upgrade has looked good to existing customers because they were accompanied by effective price raises, whereas this one isn't. Also most of them have been retrofittable even if the price has been somewhat insane.

Can you imagine a petition to any other automaker demanding the same thing? "Give us these upgrades on our previous model year car!" They'd be laughed at.

 

[justthateasy]

Additionally, here's a quote from Adam Jonas' October 10th TSLA report (day after the event) that, despite his recent odd blatherings, is of interest:

View attachment 61376

Too little too late in my opinion. Looks like words are the only consolation we'll be getting now that TSLA is barely holding the 200-day MA.

 

[hockeythug]

Additionally, here's a quote from Adam Jonas' October 10th TSLA report (day after the event) that, despite his recent odd blatherings, is of interest:

View attachment 61376

I know this is the short term thread but I can't wait to watch the success of Tesla over the next 5-10 years.

 

[ckessel]

TSLA is getting the kid gloves treatment compared to solars. Solars are all diving toward or past 52 week lows.

Bargains everywhere you look....assuming all your money wasn't already committed before the drops.

 

[AlMc]

The drop happened before the call. People were just projecting their emotions onto him, he acted similarly to how he generally does in conference calls in my opinion.

I would disagree with you on what I will call our opinion on his emotional projection. However, factually he gave no guidance on production in short run (Q4) or long run 2014 or details on the rumored GF.

 

[InTheShadows]

Too little too late in my opinion. Looks like words are the only consolation we'll be getting now that TSLA is barely holding the 200-day MA.

What happens in your opinion if we break the 200 day?

 

[Newb]

TSLA is getting the kid gloves treatment compared to solars. Solars are all diving toward or past 52 week lows.

Bargains everywhere you look....assuming all your money wasn't already committed before the drops.

+1

I've just grabbed as much TSLA as I could at 224. I agree with those saying that this is a buying opportunity.

As some have already pointed out:
1) P85D will increase gross margins.
2) P85D reviews will further increase visibility of TM around the globe. Customer base for S/X will continue to grow.
3) CPO program will contribute to TM profits in the months and years ahead.
4) Tesla marketing strategy / branding strategy is breathtaking. (just think through the reaction to Elon's tweet + D teaser picture). It provides avenues for future success of any kind of TM products. Elon could even sell premium chewing gum for a premium price to millions of people.
5) TM products are already spearheading innovation in the automotive world. Model X beta and production version will highlight this fact even further. Reservations will skyrocket, once beta/production vehicles are tested and reviewed.

With regards to TSLA getting hammered now:
As I mentioned some days before the D event, most people jumped on board of uneducated mass media guesses (Model 3, X, "pick up trucks", "Model D", what have you...). Disappointment was built-in, so to say. But until Wednesday it wasn't certain that Elon wouldn't show off X beta or 3 prototype the next day. There was some chance for those to be shown off as "something else", at least until Tuesday.

By the way, I'm still impressed Elon had the guts to invite all kinds of people, even X reservation holders, from all over the world to the D event and not to show X beta, thereby risking disappointment on their part. Indeed, that shows he's so confident in future demand for Model X that he's trying X reservation holders to get that juicy P85D instead - a strategy he has already signalised during the last conference call ("we anti-sell it [the X]").

 

[mershaw2001]

Tesla looks like its hurting in after hours (221.xx) though back to 222 as I write this. I look at this positively- retail investors willing to sell exist, but during the regular trading hours it looks like there's large institutional buyers that disappear in afterhours.

 

[AlMc]

What happens in your opinion if we break the 200 day?

Will be interested in getting everyone's opinion on that question. Personally, I believe the 200 DMA is not a definitive line in the sand but a place where I will feel more comfortable getting more of my trading money back in. It does not mean that the exact dollar figure of $219ish is the absolute low but the area is a rallying point for buyers. Q3ER is three weeks away and I had thought that we would probably touch this area then. So, my original thesis on this recent drop/stabilization/buy in time is off. The macro events have pushed us down farther than I modeled. Oil under $90 a barrel and Saudis are OK with that.......hmmm

 

[Johan]

IMO there is enough smart money buying at the 200-day SMA or the 40-week SMA ($221) that we could trade millions and millions of shares here with some really big players saying "keep 'em coming, our pockets are deeeeep!"

Could be it's one of these points where a transition takes place namely some investors who have ridden the stock up (and down some) from maybe even below the $100 level are taking profit and deciding to say "thanks, but I'm happy now and getting off the train" all the while being replaced with investors that are coming in for the long haul. One would think that there are A LOT of deep-pocketed investors (individuals and funds) who are just now learning of Tesla and TSLA, or at least just now starting to take TSLA seriously. Think about how much capital there is from China looking for good growth in the next 5-10 years.

Take a step back and think about this. To "us" who have "known" since TSLA was at $30 this may sound crazy at first... But It's not. There's still tramendous growth in Tesla's future, nothing so far contradicts it in fact every new piece of information solidifies this notion. And hence there is still so much room for growth in the stock price of TSLA (all though part of this future growth is already priced in). If you haven't read jhm's posts on doubling times in the Long term thread please go and check them out! (Comment not directed at you AlMc).

 

[Causalien]

Here is THE TA chart. So that's go over it together and see what happened.

We bounced off the 200 day SMA and dropped all the way from the 100 day because that line was broken with nothing technically significant in between. To go down more, we will be meeting the $204 level established by the huge gap. It'll also mean the market is saying TSLA is not more valuable since beginning of 2014. That the macroeconomic decline will erase all the progress this year. I am seriously doubting the macro worry that is before the earnings releases.

For TSLA. $221 is a tripple Techinical event. First, RSI, second, fib 50% level and 3rd 200day SMA. You want to breach this? You need fundamental reasons like a really bad earnings showing that TSLA is shrinking instead of growing. Either way, going below requires more time. Most likely have to wait and let RSI even out above to remove the tripple support.

What's great though is that we are back to the old tsla 0.67 volatility at $224. Options market makers will be swimming in money again.

 

[Krugerrand]

So what you're saying is that the unicorn hasn't left the barn, and there's no reason for it to because there's still lots of hay. :smile:

 

[Robert.Boston]

Someone close the barn door, fast!

 

[InTheShadows]

View attachment 61384

Here is THE TA chart. So that's go over it together and see what happened.

We bounced off the 200 day SMA and dropped all the way from the 100 day because that line was broken with nothing technically significant in between. To go down more, we will be meeting the $204 level established by the huge gap. It'll also mean the market is saying TSLA is not more valuable since beginning of 2014. That the macroeconomic decline will erase all the progress this year. I am seriously doubting the macro worry that is before the earnings releases.

For TSLA. $221 is a tripple Techinical event. First, RSI, second, fib 50% level and 3rd 200day SMA. You want to breach this? You need fundamental reasons like a really bad earnings showing that TSLA is shrinking instead of growing. Either way, going below requires more time. Most likely have to wait and let RSI even out above to remove the tripple support.

What's great though is that we are back to the old tsla 0.67 volatility at $224. Options market makers will be swimming in money again.

So if we see a flat day tomorrow I should figure out where the march options I want will be priced if we hit 221.75 and use my margin to buy at that price. Then when I get the email that the order is filled I log in and sell all my other crap (aka solar stocks) to clear out my margin and get me back to 100% equity before end of day.

Glad I get to sleep on this idea because I might seriously consider it.

 

[dmckinstry]

A potential short term negative:Model S owner launches petition demanding retrofit; Tesla stock continues slide | SiliconBeat

Just how was he deceived?

He could be "given" the retrofit for $100k.