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I am still thinking there is weakness going into Q3 earnings. Likely the bet is that Tesla will barely meet or miss guidance. Imagine if Tesla barely made guidance and gave stellar projections during the ER. I think Q4 will be terrific and Model X news, as well as possible Gigafactory milestones will make for a strong rebound.
Well I put an order in for some more.
I probably won't buy more until $180 since I need to be sure I have cash in case the market just keeps getting uglier and uglier.
I probably won't buy more until $180 since I need to be sure I have cash in case the market just keeps getting uglier and uglier.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Bought weekly puts at open and sold them for 100% gain. That pays for the weekly calls I bought this week expecting a rebound.
Bought some more March 280 calls.
In my ira (common only) I sold the rest of my csiq and kndi and bought TSLA. I was bummed when I saw my market order filled a little lower than I thought and I ended up with $232 cash in the account. Could have hd one more share.
Not sure about buying weekly calls yet. This price is good for my longer term investments/speculation though.
Bought some more March 280 calls.
In my ira (common only) I sold the rest of my csiq and kndi and bought TSLA. I was bummed when I saw my market order filled a little lower than I thought and I ended up with $232 cash in the account. Could have hd one more share.
Not sure about buying weekly calls yet. This price is good for my longer term investments/speculation though.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Peaks tend to occur when positive sentiment at TMC is high and traffic to the forum is off the charts.
When people are discouraged and the board is quiet… that is an indicator of bottoming out.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I think we just saw the bottom. There are a lot of funds with really deep pockets that have an interest in keeping us above the 200-day. I don't think investors let TSLA fall below that level until there is incrementally bad news. If the Q3 report disappoints on guidance for instance.
Everybody is talking about 200MA now, I truely hope I'm wrong, I'm afraid this might not hold tight for this downturn. Nasdaq broke 200MA for the first time since 2013.
The TSLA 200-day Simple Moving Average was at $219.89 as of the close on Friday, according to TD Ameritrade's ThinkOrSwim. The higher figure could be some weighted or Exponential Moving Average, which I do not follow. One might as well examine a shorter term SMA rather than a longer term EMA, since they often appear similar. I expected the SMA to provide solid support, and today that could prove to be the case.
TSLA trading volume is high today, but not that for the overall market. The banks are closed today for Coumbus Day. If some non-bank institutions became scared by the drop in TSLA on Friday, they might have tried to unload it this morning. Some weak retail longs may have had their stop loss limits triggered Friday and today, producing a cascade similar to falling dominoes. Meanwhile, the bank trading desks are not open today to take the other side of the trades and pick up the bargains. That left a vacuum that allowed for a bigger drop than there might otherwise have been. I would not be surprised if the banks become TSLA buyers tomorrow.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Perfectlogic
Member
Tesla Falls Again, But Credit Suisse Is ‘Substantially’ More Confident - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com
150k in 2H15? Did they mean to say 2H16? Seems weird especially when they follow it up with this
Personally I think they can sell 120-130k in 2016 as they start the year off with a runrate of 100k/y, which might yield around $1,8B in net profit at a 12% margin, or $14,4/share.
150k in 2H15? Did they mean to say 2H16? Seems weird especially when they follow it up with this
Personally I think they can sell 120-130k in 2016 as they start the year off with a runrate of 100k/y, which might yield around $1,8B in net profit at a 12% margin, or $14,4/share.
Production capability would ideally be a little higher than what one would expect to sell. So that if demand increases they can increase production. Also, production capability may be 150k but they may not be able to get enough batteries to do more than 100k.
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also:
"The company is now openly talking about $150 / kwh as a reasonable estimate for 2017, which implies ~$7k per-unit for base Model 3 (very near cost parity with internal combustion powertrains) and a cost decrease of ~$6k/unit on Model S/X."
Perfectlogic
Member
Would be pretty impressive if they go from a production capability of 40k annualized to 150k a year after.
Seems like expectation, at least mine.
Can't believe how much of a steal Tesla is right now given they are in by far the strongest position they have ever been in, with everything seemingly falling into place. I think this buying opportunity isnt much unlike the one we saw about a year ago and I hate myself for already being all in on TSLA, so I can't pick up anything now.
Seems like expectation, at least mine.
Can't believe how much of a steal Tesla is right now given they are in by far the strongest position they have ever been in, with everything seemingly falling into place. I think this buying opportunity isnt much unlike the one we saw about a year ago and I hate myself for already being all in on TSLA, so I can't pick up anything now.
For now. Q3ER still looming. I am not all 'gloom and doom' though as I have added to my core shares and LEAPS today. Still looking to potentially DCA and hold some cash until November when 2017 LEAPS come out.
Perfectlogic
Member
I think worry about Q3 is playing a rather significant role in us being this low right now, and I think it would take a lot to beat us down further from this level as guidance almost certainly will be great which I believe will send us on a rally to $300 as we move towards Q4 earnings.
Look at 2013Q3ER. We 'beat' delivery and production guidance and were in a downward trend (like now) and EM gave NO guidance resulting in a further drop. I am not saying that will happen this time but it has happened in the past where we all 'group thought' that TSLA had good and bad things already priced in to find out at an ER that the market disagreed.
After all the selling off the last week, hell the last month or so, I really don't think that it's appropriate to use terms like "weak" and "strong" today. Especially since many are trying to be "strong" by holding shares that were once worth $291 not too long ago and trading at around $227. That's a $64 difference, times a lot of shares, equals a lot of money that's disappeared because one is trying to be "strong".
i think the difference was there was rumors out there of a tremendous beat coming from that faulty VIN analysis so there was 'buy on the rumor' and when news came out as not a major beat and it was time for those rumor-buyers to sell there was no buyers to buy from them so it tanked the stock price....
...I think the same thing just happened a bit with this "unveil the D" event...rumors were out there that it would be the final X or Model 3 reveal but neither happened and same result combined with a market correction.
however, for Q3 there is no 'buy on the rumor' going on so I don't think there will be any additional selling pressure from those players even if the results are just as expected...if below expected I could see a minor drop but if guidance is strong I think that may push the stock up
just to add...perhaps for this Q3 there is even a 'short on the rumor' going on
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