IMO there is enough smart money buying at the 200-day SMA or the 40-week SMA ($221) that we could trade millions and millions of shares here with some really big players saying "keep 'em coming, our pockets are deeeeep!"
Could be it's one of these points where a transition takes place namely some investors who have ridden the stock up (and down some) from maybe even below the $100 level are taking profit and deciding to say "thanks, but I'm happy now and getting off the train" all the while being replaced with investors that are coming in for the long haul. One would think that there are A LOT of deep-pocketed investors (individuals and funds) who are just now learning of Tesla and TSLA, or at least just now starting to take TSLA seriously. Think about how much capital there is from China looking for good growth in the next 5-10 years.
Take a step back and think about this. To "us" who have "known" since TSLA was at $30 this may sound crazy at first... But It's not. There's still tramendous growth in Tesla's future, nothing so far contradicts it in fact every new piece of information solidifies this notion. And hence there is still so much room for growth in the stock price of TSLA (all though part of this future growth is already priced in). If you haven't read jhm's posts on doubling times in the Long term thread please go and check them out! (Comment not directed at you AlMc).[/QUOTE]
Never thought it was:wink: AlMc (the grasshopper)
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Moderator's Note
There are huge, tedious threads about the merits of the argument that people who got their cars just before the new sensors were added have somehow been wronged. E.g. Disappointed with the D unveiling
Let's not debate the substance here, too, please; impact of this petition on TSLA is fair game.
There are huge, tedious threads about the merits of the argument that people who got their cars just before the new sensors were added have somehow been wronged. E.g. Disappointed with the D unveiling
Let's not debate the substance here, too, please; impact of this petition on TSLA is fair game.
I agree. This demand is ridiculous. EM stated long ago that he does not want to have 'model years'. The car will continually improve. We will all get the software but much of the hardware will not be retrofittable and the software that pertains to it, unuseable. I would be frustrated if I just missed on a hardware that I wanted but I would accept that is the car I ordered.
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Sorry we cross posted. Please feel free to move or delete my post Robert.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yes we are still drawing the head if the unicorn and is currently drawing its nose. The red channel describes where its horn should be. The stock needs to go back there and maintain the channel to draw a pretty horn.
If anything, this move finally makes writing options a lot more profitable again. But it took a 3 sigma move to do it. (estimate). I will be looking to write some of the calls to finish off my previous strategies in the coming days.
Excuse the rainbows and unicorns. I am in Netherland.
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I remember the same scenario with upgrades happened to aapl before. Jobs ended up giving a $100 credit to all customers who bought within one month. A bit fuzzy on the details now, but would this satisfy the wronged owners?
InTheShadows
Active Member
All I know is that this is a beautiful chart!
So by buying puts do I help the company in any way? Hurt them? I know my $100 test isn't much but I don't want to do anything to directly help the oil and gas industry.
So by buying puts do I help the company in any way? Hurt them? I know my $100 test isn't much but I don't want to do anything to directly help the oil and gas industry.
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Thanks, its a relief closing these out, while being the most profitable trades of my life they have also been the most stressful, being an owner & supporter of Tesla & Elon while placing bearish trades is incredibly difficult, I can't wait to go long again, its easier!
green1
Active Member
Tesla is not currently trying to raise capital in the stock or bond markets, as such the stock price is completely irrelevant to them. When Elon was recently asked about the dip in Stock price he shrugged and said he doesn't really pay attention to it. Log term they may care, but short term is not relevant, they don't get any part of any stock transaction
He's talking about puts in the oil company in the chart.
There have been studies I've read that argue that short selling supplies liquidity to a market, but whether that is necessarily "bad" for the underlying stock, I'm not sure.
Might be better off taking the money for that put and buying some amount of "NO MORE OIL!" posters and sticking them all over your hometown. Or better yet, make money on those puts and use profits to protest oil.
InTheShadows
Active Member
He's talking about puts in the oil company in the chart.
There have been studies I've read that argue that short selling supplies liquidity to a market, but whether that is necessarily "bad" for the underlying stock, I'm not sure.
Might be better off taking the money for that put and buying some amount of "NO MORE OIL!" posters and sticking them all over your hometown. Or better yet, make money on those puts and use profits to protest oil.
Thanks @green1 and @flux I was able to take greens comment and apply it to the oil industry. If others are interested in discussing this maybe we should have a new thread made.
If the info in this article is true then there might be a major fallout coming to the gas industry.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/fracking-enters-bear-market-question-emerges-shale-boom-built-sea-lies
I care because these guys are messing up my back yard.
My armchair theory is that this massive increase in oil supply from OPEC nations is a deliberate attempt to push oil and dinosaur gas below the price that producing it from fracking is profitable, and thus punish US competition. Oil under $100/barrel is also really bad for Russia's economy which is massively based on income from selling oil and natural gas at high prices.
I view these developments as a possible catalyst for downward pressure on the market in near-term (possibly including TSLA) but a huge reminder that a solar-electric economy would free us from these kinds of gyrations and instability. Which is great for TSLA medium to long-term.
Tesla nothing has changed, TSLA things have changed
Someone posted today asking what has changed (other than for the better) since last week's announcement.
I agree with the implied point, only some good things have been revealed on Tesla.
But, to me, I do think something has changed in TSLA for those of us following the stock the past couple of years. Not so much in last week's announcement, but I think things are different about the selloff from $291 than any of the prior one's, and it's something to bear in mind in contemplating any short term trades.
Over roughly a year and a half Tesla went up about 7X. I am very bullish on Tesla, holding over have my net worth in a long term position, but I think the next 7X increase in the shares will take roughly a dozen years compared to the year and a half we just saw this happen in.
That ~7X increase in roughly 12 year projection is a pretty good performance for long term investing, but I think it drastically changes the environment for short-term trading. Basically, when a stock goes up 7X in a year and a half, if you have the patience to hold for a few months if need be, you can't lose on short-term long trades (of course, this is true in terms of common shares, but not all option strategies). That kind of explosive share price move is just about a 700 mph wind at your back in trading as a long (it's basically the phenomena of the late '90s some of us can remember where everyone thought they were a trading genius as the NASDAQ exploded upwards). There's not been a TSLA peak you could have bought in the past year and a half and not been significantly up in 6 months, including just before the first car fire. We might get to $291 within 6 months, but I doubt that we'll be significantly higher than that even in a year... maybe +10%
I'm not saying $220s are not an attractive price to add shares. If you want to pick up some shares or options here, I can understand that, but I think it's worth realizing the kind of quick upside returns we've been habituated to just are far less likely when the next 7X is more like a decade+ run than a year and a half run. It doesn't hurt to keep buying power available in case we see crazy low prices again.
Someone posted today asking what has changed (other than for the better) since last week's announcement.
I agree with the implied point, only some good things have been revealed on Tesla.
But, to me, I do think something has changed in TSLA for those of us following the stock the past couple of years. Not so much in last week's announcement, but I think things are different about the selloff from $291 than any of the prior one's, and it's something to bear in mind in contemplating any short term trades.
Over roughly a year and a half Tesla went up about 7X. I am very bullish on Tesla, holding over have my net worth in a long term position, but I think the next 7X increase in the shares will take roughly a dozen years compared to the year and a half we just saw this happen in.
That ~7X increase in roughly 12 year projection is a pretty good performance for long term investing, but I think it drastically changes the environment for short-term trading. Basically, when a stock goes up 7X in a year and a half, if you have the patience to hold for a few months if need be, you can't lose on short-term long trades (of course, this is true in terms of common shares, but not all option strategies). That kind of explosive share price move is just about a 700 mph wind at your back in trading as a long (it's basically the phenomena of the late '90s some of us can remember where everyone thought they were a trading genius as the NASDAQ exploded upwards). There's not been a TSLA peak you could have bought in the past year and a half and not been significantly up in 6 months, including just before the first car fire. We might get to $291 within 6 months, but I doubt that we'll be significantly higher than that even in a year... maybe +10%
I'm not saying $220s are not an attractive price to add shares. If you want to pick up some shares or options here, I can understand that, but I think it's worth realizing the kind of quick upside returns we've been habituated to just are far less likely when the next 7X is more like a decade+ run than a year and a half run. It doesn't hurt to keep buying power available in case we see crazy low prices again.
chickensevil
Active Member
Just so you are aware, a 7x return would put the share price at over 1400$ a share. I would be hugely amazed if it makes it above that in a year and a half since there isn't likely to be any amount of future weight behind that number and will require a serious path forward of crazy explosive growth from the company. 7x in a year and a half is just improbable. That being said, I don't think it will take a decade to hit that. I would be shocked if we are not well over that number by then end of this decade.
But yes, the days of really easy money are pretty much gone.
While that's true, I don't really think there's "easy money" in this market, that can only be described as bi polar. This sell off has been absolutely nuts though and pretty unwarranted IMO (I'm glad it's happened kind of... as it lowers expectations for Q3 earnings). I'm suspecting people are pricing in a Q3 miss. What really matters right now is the Model X milestone. It absolutely has to be hit. The Model D was a great move on many fronts that many here have probably caught. I think the team saw a few things occurring with Model S:
1. ASP's were probably decreasing in the market, with this move they could make a compelling product and increase ASP's (now with better GM due to economies of scale)
2. 3 year mark was coming (typically when these luxury buyers switch over to a newer car)
3. "Easy" incremental gross margin as people were making the i8 to Model S comparison, the team probably got annoyed and decided to blow it out of the water.
4. The team probably saw way too many Model X orders and figured some people just wanted AWD and not an SUV. They probably also wanted to fine tune the Model X platform and shift orders of the Model X to the S. Thereby decreasing the queue and making more money sooner.
5. One of the biggest critiques of the Model S was lack of advanced safety features. The thoughts of... "for a car so advanced, how can you not have xxxx." If I were a Tesla engineer, I'd probably be pissed and hell bent on quashing this thought and remark, which is what the team did last Thursday. While other companies are integrating Apple Carplay, Google Play, etc and working on radar based tech, Tesla decided to overhaul the entire system (including the brake system, which in my mind was an absolute stroke of genius-- they've increased the control of brakes, increased brake pad life, decreased maintenance, and increased stopping power in one fell swoop).
6. I also think Elon just missed his Mclaren F1 that he totalled... because that "Lost interview" was dug up again where he took delivery of the F1.
I'm not saying that TSLA should be $500 tomorrow, but the story hasn't changed. In fact, they've increased the rate of innovation. Future output and outlook could easily put TSLA at the size of GM. I think the 50B market cap is in sight at least next year only because the team has been executing at Silicon Valley pace in a industry full of fossils.
1. ASP's were probably decreasing in the market, with this move they could make a compelling product and increase ASP's (now with better GM due to economies of scale)
2. 3 year mark was coming (typically when these luxury buyers switch over to a newer car)
3. "Easy" incremental gross margin as people were making the i8 to Model S comparison, the team probably got annoyed and decided to blow it out of the water.
4. The team probably saw way too many Model X orders and figured some people just wanted AWD and not an SUV. They probably also wanted to fine tune the Model X platform and shift orders of the Model X to the S. Thereby decreasing the queue and making more money sooner.
5. One of the biggest critiques of the Model S was lack of advanced safety features. The thoughts of... "for a car so advanced, how can you not have xxxx." If I were a Tesla engineer, I'd probably be pissed and hell bent on quashing this thought and remark, which is what the team did last Thursday. While other companies are integrating Apple Carplay, Google Play, etc and working on radar based tech, Tesla decided to overhaul the entire system (including the brake system, which in my mind was an absolute stroke of genius-- they've increased the control of brakes, increased brake pad life, decreased maintenance, and increased stopping power in one fell swoop).
6. I also think Elon just missed his Mclaren F1 that he totalled... because that "Lost interview" was dug up again where he took delivery of the F1.
I'm not saying that TSLA should be $500 tomorrow, but the story hasn't changed. In fact, they've increased the rate of innovation. Future output and outlook could easily put TSLA at the size of GM. I think the 50B market cap is in sight at least next year only because the team has been executing at Silicon Valley pace in a industry full of fossils.
Chicken, I'm not clear what you thought I might be unaware of here... did you think I was suggesting the stock would be at $1400 in a year and a half?
fwiw, I think at the end of the decade fair value will be $500-700. Of course the market could be overvaluing Tesla in 2020, but I don't count on that in making my investment decisions. perhaps we could pick this part up in the long term thread.
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I agree with your general conclusions, but think that your 1 year forecast is unreasonably pessimistic.
I expect share price to go up significantly within 1 year time frame. I believe that some time during the first half of 2015 it will become clear that TM are on a firm pass to deliver MS and MX at 100K+ rate by the end of 2015, while reaching 0.15 EBIT Margin. At a $105 ASP this will yield EBIT of 100 x 105 x 0.15 = $1.575B. Applying modest 30 P/E ratio (for a fast growing production constrained company) will yield $47.25B market cap, which is 68% premium over the current share price of $224.59. Based on this TSLA is very likely to get to $375 per share within 1 year time frame. This discounts any consensus on potential Model III and stationary storage sales that is also likely to build-up over the next year.
The current gyration in TSLA price is combination of the overall market sentiment and lack of consensus on TM getting to the 100K+ rate by the end of 2015.
Just for reference, attached is Credit Suisse projection on the Gross and EBIT margins from their August, 13 report.
oh, it could definitely break $320 a year from now, but that's about where I see fair value in a year. X hitting the bullseye, and excitement over a Gen III reveal could get us to $375 or so, I agree. But, I do think that would be the stock being a little ahead of itself. If the market is heading into an extended slump, the $320 I see as fair value may be challenging to hit.
That $1.575 billion in earnings you calculated, I agree with, but with two caveats. First, that would be 2016 earnings not 2015 so that 30 would be a forward pe, not current year or looking back. I wouldn't consider a forward pe of 30 modest, though it seems about right to me in Tesla's case of roughly 50% revenue and earnings growth (the current year pe would be about 50 in that case). Second caveat, much of that $1.575 billion will be plowed back into investment into the GF, preparing for Gen III, service center, SuperCharger expansion, etc. So, on the downside, not all of that $1.575 billion will show up as eps. On the plus side, as I suspect you know, 100K vehicles in 2016 looks like a floor... we may see more like 125K to 150K. fwiw, the analyst who defended the stock today projected $7 in eps in 2016... $320 a year from now would mean a forward pe of 45 if his $7 eps is correct. I think they'll do better than $7/share, but I think a forward pe of 45 is a bit rich.
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Have Solar Stocks Sold Off Too Much? - First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) - 24/7 Wall St.
Lower oil prices = less enthusiasm for alternative energy, including EVs, thus probably affecting TSLA somewhat as well.
Lower oil prices = less enthusiasm for alternative energy, including EVs, thus probably affecting TSLA somewhat as well.
On the negative world outlook
Finally, someone mentions this. I've been boosting it for awhile and may have goofed by starting at the end of tonight's thread, but I'm relieved such a little used mention by Elon is seeing the light of day. Thanks.
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For longer term positive influences on the market, I'm watching Germany to see if the hint at stimulus by Chancellor Merkel a few days ago materializes. She stressed internet companies but Germany needs infrastructural stimulus as much as we do. Cf, Krugman on this and the widespread ignorance of the zero bound limiting the dangers of inflation. The negative side, as usual, would be some greater calamity in the Middle East and/or massive extension of the Ebola infection to other countries.
Finally, someone mentions this. I've been boosting it for awhile and may have goofed by starting at the end of tonight's thread, but I'm relieved such a little used mention by Elon is seeing the light of day. Thanks.
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For longer term positive influences on the market, I'm watching Germany to see if the hint at stimulus by Chancellor Merkel a few days ago materializes. She stressed internet companies but Germany needs infrastructural stimulus as much as we do. Cf, Krugman on this and the widespread ignorance of the zero bound limiting the dangers of inflation. The negative side, as usual, would be some greater calamity in the Middle East and/or massive extension of the Ebola infection to other countries.
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I'm trying to figure out where we stand...
We've had:
-Recent ATH
-EM saying that short term, PS was a bit ahead, but long term looking good
-Market sell-off
-Macro not that attractive
-News that were coldly welcomed
-No news on what people are waiting for (X and III)
-No news yet on what market is interested in (Deliveries, Q3, Q4, confirmation on 2015 outlook, demand, China market)
-Very close or at the 200dma that has never been broken in the past
but as well:
-product update that is very attractive
-Credit Suisse still positive, Jonas as well, and no downgrades
-long term nothing has changed: still an amazing company run by an amazing team, with lots of good surprises ahead. I'm convinced personnally that there are no demand problems.
-any positive news/rumour (the tweet was a perfect example) can give us a small rallye.
My questions are, though:
What happens with X: why no news, why no mentions of it at all when they were presenting the AWD? Are they stuck somewhere? Was the P85D a diversion or just a little fun for him because everything else is actually so well (technically speaking) on track, although a bit of delays occured?
What kind of issues do they have in general, now?
What's in EM mind? We understand that the short term SP is not his priority, but then again, people around him see this SP as an important incentive. Does he care if the SP breaks the support and goes down to who knows where? I could imagine that he just wants to proceed according his Masterplan, step by step, delaying things if needed, but safely achieving his milestones when he can, the way he wants. Whatever the effect on SP?
Is TSLA cheap enough now to attract buyers, or is TSLA a good opportunity for a possible rallye if good news?
In the absence of news specific to Tesla, I guess Nasdaq will be followed, maybe amplified (like all the other tech and momentum). So to have a bit of green we need some "general" positive catalyst or a small technical rebound. After last week and yesterday's sell off, why not, but won't last long, will it?
The next milestone that we know for sure is Q3, in +/- three weeks for now...
But for today, fingers crossed not to drop below 220...
We've had:
-Recent ATH
-EM saying that short term, PS was a bit ahead, but long term looking good
-Market sell-off
-Macro not that attractive
-News that were coldly welcomed
-No news on what people are waiting for (X and III)
-No news yet on what market is interested in (Deliveries, Q3, Q4, confirmation on 2015 outlook, demand, China market)
-Very close or at the 200dma that has never been broken in the past
but as well:
-product update that is very attractive
-Credit Suisse still positive, Jonas as well, and no downgrades
-long term nothing has changed: still an amazing company run by an amazing team, with lots of good surprises ahead. I'm convinced personnally that there are no demand problems.
-any positive news/rumour (the tweet was a perfect example) can give us a small rallye.
My questions are, though:
What happens with X: why no news, why no mentions of it at all when they were presenting the AWD? Are they stuck somewhere? Was the P85D a diversion or just a little fun for him because everything else is actually so well (technically speaking) on track, although a bit of delays occured?
What kind of issues do they have in general, now?
What's in EM mind? We understand that the short term SP is not his priority, but then again, people around him see this SP as an important incentive. Does he care if the SP breaks the support and goes down to who knows where? I could imagine that he just wants to proceed according his Masterplan, step by step, delaying things if needed, but safely achieving his milestones when he can, the way he wants. Whatever the effect on SP?
Is TSLA cheap enough now to attract buyers, or is TSLA a good opportunity for a possible rallye if good news?
In the absence of news specific to Tesla, I guess Nasdaq will be followed, maybe amplified (like all the other tech and momentum). So to have a bit of green we need some "general" positive catalyst or a small technical rebound. After last week and yesterday's sell off, why not, but won't last long, will it?
The next milestone that we know for sure is Q3, in +/- three weeks for now...
But for today, fingers crossed not to drop below 220...
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