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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Not my premise. But it is a common bear thesis. The whole "peaked U.S. deliveries" scenario that Tesla burned through the early adopters in the U.S. and went searching for demand elsewhere. Repeat in each new market, where Tesla has a bump in new deliveries but then slides. It depends on assuming that Tesla is not production constrained and the bears have to go through a lot of contortions to try to show that to be true. But with a stock as high as Tesla's, the perception that it might be true is enough to cause the kind of volatility that we have seen.

Where do I go to find good tesla bear info? Preferably a place that does not publish click bait. Is there a Tesla will fail forum somewhere? I'd really like to know details of what the other side is saying like this.
 
Where do I go to find good tesla bear info? Preferably a place that does not publish click bait. Is there a Tesla will fail forum somewhere? I'd really like to know details of what the other side is saying like this.

I think he is just referring to people like Anton Wahlman, Mark Spiegel, and Paulo Santos. Those are at least the most vocal bears that are still hanging around. I would still classify Cramer as a bear. I think that pretty much covers it.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and I wouldn't call them "good", most of their thesis is just silly. But that is about as good as it gets I suppose.
 
Model X at the Detroit auto show in January just makes sense. I was told specifically by a TM manager in the summer that that is when it will be revealed and I am sure they want to give some time between the D reveal and the X reveal to not wash away the spike in orders for the D by revealing the X too soon. I also think they will wait a few months at least between the X reveal and the 3 prototypes. It's always better to space good news evenly to get maximum effect.
 
Model X at the Detroit auto show in January just makes sense. I was told specifically by a TM manager in the summer that that is when it will be revealed and I am sure they want to give some time between the D reveal and the X reveal to not wash away the spike in orders for the D by revealing the X too soon. I also think they will wait a few months at least between the X reveal and the 3 prototypes. It's always better to space good news evenly to get maximum effect.

Pssssh they should treat this like war... go for the full shock and awe effect of a full on carpet bomb! Model S P85D reveal last week. Model X reveal in like 2-4 weeks from now. Model 3 reveal 4-6 weeks after that. Let's barely give anyone time to breath :D (and you can squeeze in some quarterly earnings somewhere in there along with some nice updates on the gigafactory progress.)

I think the market would be stunned if they pushed all that data out before we get into the first Model X delivery, This way that also becomes big news. Followed shortly by reports of how quickly they are ramping up their deliveries of Model X and the continued high demand of Model S.

They have a path to have something pretty cool to talk about at least once a month, and if they did all of this their competition (which they so desperately want to join in) will just stand there stunned and not know what to do with themselves... and it will be AWESOME!

But that's just me, and how I would do it.
 
I think that Tesla is becoming more like Apple in marketing and product releases as I've stated before.

First iPhone was released 6 months in advance to mainly get market feedback. Same can be applied to Model S & to some extent Model X. From here on, I think Tesla will keep all cards to itself without releasing them too far in advance. Model 3 is going to generate huge reservations. I feel that it will be announced no earlier than 18 months before it goes in production. That's a good enough time to take the industry by storm. It will also allow them to focus only on product.
 
I do not accept your premise of decreased demand. If true than why no advertising yet????

Indeed. Despite the established automakers being quite well known, they nevertheless advertise heavily. During football on TV there appear to be more car ads than points scored. However, there is no point in Tesla advertising while production constrained and there remains a backlog of orders. Word of mouth and financial news coverage appear to be sufficient for now. Meanwhile, they allocate deliveries around the world in a fair manner which creates the illusion of reduced demand in some regions.

I had never heard of Tesla Motors and its cars until 20 months ago when a newsletter from one of my former TV interviewees recommended TSLA stock. After several days of research I bought all of my my shares at an average of $37.93. It's still the case that most people here in Illinois are either unaware or vaguely aware of the Model S unless they are financial news junkies. Once production gets ramped up to the point that advertising becomes justified, look for demand to explode upward.
 
Pssssh they should treat this like war...

Hold your ground! Hold your ground!
Sons of Tesla, of Elon, my brothers,
I see in your posts the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the 200-day MA fails,
when we forsake our fellow shareholders
and break all bonds of ownership,
but it is not this day.
An hour of bears and shattered charts
when Tesla's stock price comes crashing down,
but it is not this day!
This day we buy!!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth,
I bid you buy, Bulls of TSLA!!!

With apologies to Aragorn, and a link for the non-geeks among us: Return of the King: Aragorns Speech at the Black Gate - YouTube
 
Hold your ground! Hold your ground!
Sons of Tesla, of Elon, my brothers,
I see in your posts the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the 200-day MA fails,
when we forsake our fellow shareholders
and break all bonds of ownership,
but it is not this day.
An hour of bears and shattered charts
when Tesla's stock price comes crashing down,
but it is not this day!
This day we buy!!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth,
I bid you buy, Bulls of TSLA!!!

With apologies to Aragorn, and a link for the non-geeks among us: Return of the King: Aragorns Speech at the Black Gate - YouTube

You just gave me chills with that. That's how much of a geek I am.

Edit:

After you posted this the NASDAQ began a bit of a dive, and TSLA had been tracking with it most of the day. But...we held our ground. :)
 
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NPR's "Here and Now" apparently just had a segment on Tesla on the air. And it wasn't positive. I didn't hear it but someone called me to tall me (since I'm the Tesla fanatic and they figured I'd wanna know). Sounds like FUD-spreading.

[ Also guessing big-3 automakers are underwriters of NPR, like the ANGA frackers are....]
 
Hold your ground! Hold your ground!
Sons of Tesla, of Elon, my brothers,
I see in your posts the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the 200-day MA fails,
when we forsake our fellow shareholders
and break all bonds of ownership,
but it is not this day.
An hour of bears and shattered charts
when Tesla's stock price comes crashing down,
but it is not this day!
This day we buy!!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth,
I bid you buy, Bulls of TSLA!!!

With apologies to Aragorn, and a link for the non-geeks among us: Return of the King: Aragorns Speech at the Black Gate - YouTube

I just don't know if right now is as good of a buying opportunity as the last couple of moves to the 200day mainly because of the broader market and global concerns. In the past we've bounced off the 200day nicely and that always proved to be a good buying point. I'm just not so sure that this time it's the same. I might still buy a little in case I"m wrong, but might try to have some saved up in case I'm right.
 
NPR's "Here and Now" apparently just had a segment on Tesla on the air. And it wasn't positive. I didn't hear it but someone called me to tall me (since I'm the Tesla fanatic and they figured I'd wanna know). Sounds like FUD-spreading.

[ Also guessing big-3 automakers are underwriters of NPR, like the ANGA frackers are....]

really? NPR? I would not have guessed this. Sadness it is.
 
Hold your ground! Hold your ground!
Sons of Tesla, of Elon, my brothers,
I see in your posts the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the 200-day MA fails,
when we forsake our fellow shareholders
and break all bonds of ownership,
but it is not this day.
An hour of bears and shattered charts
when Tesla's stock price comes crashing down,
but it is not this day!
This day we buy!!
By all that you hold dear on this good Earth,
I bid you buy, Bulls of TSLA!!!

With apologies to Aragorn, and a link for the non-geeks among us: Return of the King: Aragorns Speech at the Black Gate - YouTube

LOL.
Thanks, I needed that.
TSLA is up 3% currently at around $231.
 
NPR's "Here and Now" apparently just had a segment on Tesla on the air. And it wasn't positive. I didn't hear it but someone called me to tall me (since I'm the Tesla fanatic and they figured I'd wanna know). Sounds like FUD-spreading.

[ Also guessing big-3 automakers are underwriters of NPR, like the ANGA frackers are....]

This reminds me of back in the seventies when at the start of each episode of a certain PBS TV series it was announced that, "America is brought to you by the Mobil Oil Corporation". Of course America was the name of the program, but I still got a kick out of the statement. It was rather like when former General Motors CEO and US Defense Secretary Charles Wilson said, "...what was good for our country was good for General Motors, and vice versa."

In my newscasts we attempted to avoid consideration of sponsors. But that was broadcast TV. On cable there are no such restraints. Of course PBS and NPR are broadcasters. But since they have few traditional commercials, they appear to occasionally bow toward the interests of those entities that sponsor entire programs.
 
NPR's "Here and Now" apparently just had a segment on Tesla on the air. And it wasn't positive. I didn't hear it but someone called me to tall me (since I'm the Tesla fanatic and they figured I'd wanna know). Sounds like FUD-spreading.

[ Also guessing big-3 automakers are underwriters of NPR, like the ANGA frackers are....]

really? NPR? I would not have guessed this. Sadness it is.

I just listened to the segment on hereandnow.wbur.org. I didn't feel it was negative. The guest, a re/code reporter, discussed his impression of the P85D and Wall Street's reaction. Some discussion of whether Tesla should be valued like a tech or manufacturing stock. Overall nothing reported that I didn't already know.
 
An up day for TSLA. Whoopee!
For us Canucks we also gained 1% today (above the 1.1% TSLA rise) on the exchange rate as the Greenback is gaining momentum. Oil is down an astonishing 4.4% today and the CAD is heavily influenced. Looks like the days of parity arn't returning soon. I remember not long ago when $1.00 CAD $ was worth $1.10 USD.
Other currencies are also in the same boat, whereas a TSLA stock purchase could be seen as a hedge against a falling currency.

Buying TSLA at $30 back in late 2012 carried significant risk as total failure was a high possibility. Buying TSLA at $230 will never realize the share price performance of the past, however the risk of failure is extremely small. Tesla has proven itself a formidable player in the auto industry. It's just a matter of time.

Cheers to a green day.
 

My armchair theory is that this massive increase in oil supply from OPEC nations is a deliberate attempt to push oil and dinosaur gas below the price that producing it from fracking is profitable, and thus punish US competition. Oil under $100/barrel is also really bad for Russia's economy which is massively based on income from selling oil and natural gas at high prices.

I view these developments as a possible catalyst for downward pressure on the market in near-term (possibly including TSLA) but a huge reminder that a solar-electric economy would free us from these kinds of gyrations and instability. Which is great for TSLA medium to long-term.

I've posted my thoughts before (see above), but to reiterate briefly: this is why we need a solar-electric economy. It is inevitable and essential, the only question is how soon we can lead the world there.
 
An up day for TSLA. Whoopee!
For us Canucks we also gained 1% today (above the 1.1% TSLA rise) on the exchange rate as the Greenback is gaining momentum. Oil is down an astonishing 4.4% today and the CAD is heavily influenced. Looks like the days of parity arn't returning soon. I remember not long ago when $1.00 CAD $ was worth $1.10 USD.
Other currencies are also in the same boat, whereas a TSLA stock purchase could be seen as a hedge against a falling currency.

Buying TSLA at $30 back in late 2012 carried significant risk as total failure was a high possibility. Buying TSLA at $230 will never realize the share price performance of the past, however the risk of failure is extremely small. Tesla has proven itself a formidable player in the auto industry. It's just a matter of time.

Cheers to a green day.

I am with you on currency moves, strong greenback works like a charm for me.
 
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