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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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@AIMc

1. Yes, I expect that this month.
2. No idea... will these really have an impact anyway?
3. Yes, I think so.
4. Yes, I think we'll get an update of some sort re: China. Might not be exact reservation numbers, though.
5. No, I think this will come early-mid Q2.
 
I believe Elon did say that EVs will compete with or outdo ICE supercars at some point. However, I don't see this supercar coming anytime soon. If Elon is right about the battery supply constraint being eased after Q2, I think they will rather just focus on building as many MS and MX as they can later this year. Sure, you can add AWD and maybe even an extra motor, but I think a real supercar would need a redesigned transmission that makes good use of that power, as well as upgrades to the handling, such as torque vectoring like in the Mercedes SLS AMG. This is a market segment that I think Tesla will eventually want to enter, but I don't see it happening this year. And yes, it would boost their image (and EVs in general) if they can produce a successful supercar. Many people still think EVs are slow and boring cars.

I think the Merc SLS AMG electric is already THAT supercar. With an official electric race series this year I think the myth that electric can't hang with ICE will be broken.
 
I'm expecting the AWD to be at NAIAS as the i8 is about to launch and an AWD S would steal the show as it would be faster and hopefully a higher top speed.

http://www.automobilemag.com/reviews/driven/1308_2014_bmw_i8/

The i8 will hit 100 km/hr (62 mph) n less than 4.5 seconds and keep going up to 155 mph.

Read more: http://www.automobilemag.com/reviews/driven/1308_2014_bmw_i8/#ixzz2pYFiEK8g

+1 would make my day!

According to chinese news shipping cars to China starts this month btw!
 
Have you guys thought of that Tesla might have have found out that Tesla is pretty popular in cold places like Norway and that might be a reason for AWD? If Tesla listen to their consumers and adapt we should all be glad. With AWD I bet it would be pretty popular in Germany to.

Sure would be popular in Germany.

Anyway, I look forward to driving a 4WD performace car in the snow. It will make my skiing trips much more enjoyable. The Model S performs good in snow, as does the roadster. But 4WD should be a substantial improvement.

Everybody here seems to be assuming that 4WD means the same motor in the rear of the MS will be in the rear of the MX. Could it be that a motor with only 2/3 of the power is installed in the rear and another one in front? It was discussed before that perhaps different gears would make sense. All of this could also be controlled by software.
 
This video is a week old or so but I don't think it's been linked here
http://insideevs.com/video-tesla-vp-diarmuid-oconnell-discusses-everything-tesla/

The interesting thing is that he essentially confirms that they'll be building a giga-factory and the reasons why it makes sense. (I really think that's what the building next to the Tesla factory in Fremont will be although I'm not sure if that's even Tesla's property). Also, he discusses China in a very passionate and excited manner. Seems like they must be doing well in China. These are two things I'd expect them to discuss on the Q4 conference call.


Update: Looks like it was linked and discussed a bit in this thread. I still want to post it here b/c I think it's pretty relevant to the short term stock price.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...s-Dev-Tesla-on-everything-from-Roadster-to-G3
 
Take a look at the movement for the last 6-7 trading days: Tremendous resistance. We are also getting pinched at the lower support, purple. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. WE NEED A CATALYST!

1JthJHRB.png



We are also coming back down to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders:

Q5qI5TiU.png

Just a thought:

UujiHX9K.png
 
This video is a week old or so but I don't think it's been linked here
http://insideevs.com/video-tesla-vp-diarmuid-oconnell-discusses-everything-tesla/

The interesting thing is that he essentially confirms that they'll be building a giga-factory and the reasons why it makes sense. (I really think that's what the building next to the Tesla factory in Fremont will be although I'm not sure if that's even Tesla's property). Also, he discusses China in a very passionate and excited manner. Seems like they must be doing well in China. These are two things I'd expect them to discuss on the Q4 conference call.


Update: Looks like it was linked and discussed a bit in this thread. I still want to post it here b/c I think it's pretty relevant to the short term stock price.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...s-Dev-Tesla-on-everything-from-Roadster-to-G3

Thanks for posting this video link here. Very informative.

Here's a rough transcript of the part of the video at 14:53. Bold face is my annotation.

Interviewer: One of the worries which everyone has is if you start doing hundreds of thousands of electric cars and that 18650 which your battery are using, it’s almost impossible to get those delivered. The total capacity of all the batteries won’t be enough to satisfy the Tesla hunger. How are you going to do that?

Diarmuid O’Connell: Well, I should say first of all, we’re technology-neutral and form-factor agnostic. So, right now we’re finding the 18650 cell form factor is ideal for what we’re doing and for the foreseeable future will continue to be right. Going out a couple years the supply chain is going to be constrained. So, we’re already making investments in that area ourselves. One of my business development efforts is focused on should and how Tesla perhaps enters into that business ourselves. Elon has announced that we will be developing a giga-factory for developing cells ourselves. In fact, we are already using cells we designed ourselves. It’s just that Panasonic is manufacturing them for us. It’s the next logical step to go into the manufacturing. Particularly because right now we ship cells from Japan to the United States to be assembled and the cars come over to Europe. That’s not very efficient. So we need to have a closer and more domestic supply of cells, so we’re looking to do that and get that business started in the new year.

 
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RobotGrease,
love your color on the technical analysis, keep it coming. I've never been a believer in TA but since watching yours and AustinEV's color on technicals for the past several months on TSLA I'm starting to catch myself wanting to believe in it.
Hopefully the Jan 8th meeting with employees or Detroit show next week will yield the catalyst news we need to break out.
 
RobotGrease,
love your color on the technical analysis, keep it coming. I've never been a believer in TA but since watching yours and AustinEV's color on technicals for the past several months on TSLA I'm starting to catch myself wanting to believe in it.
Hopefully the Jan 8th meeting with employees or Detroit show next week will yield the catalyst news we need to break out.

Thanks for the kind words. I myself find TA as a helpful tool for rationalizing movement and calming nerves.

I recall talk of the Jan 8th meeting, but don't remember where. Can you point me over to that discussion?
 
There is discussion on another thread about an 'all hands on deck' meeting of all Tesla staff sometime this week. This discussion also includes debate about what the substance of that meeting might be. So, double speculation: Will there be a meeting and what will it entail?

A catalyst(s) will probably result:

Positive: Introduction of features and timetable for 'X'
Introduction of AWD system (in S?)
Discussion of NTHSB results

Neutral/Positive/Negative: ???? Unionization ?????

Any of these will have effect on short term TSLA. I am not sure how unionization will affect TSLA. Thoughts?
 
The last all hands meeting I had at our own company was for healthcare changes coming for the new year. Obamacare is obliterating our health care options and we actually are going to go with a self-insured, but re-insured, health care plan. Such is progress.
 
It is exremely stressful that this potentially important announcement comes just when we are being compressed in this wedge as so eloquently pointed out by @RobotGrease. Either way, a ripple in the water could create a huge wave.
 
There is discussion on another thread about an 'all hands on deck' meeting of all Tesla staff sometime this week. This discussion also includes debate about what the substance of that meeting might be. So, double speculation: Will there be a meeting and what will it entail?

A catalyst(s) will probably result:

Positive: Introduction of features and timetable for 'X'
Introduction of AWD system (in S?)
Discussion of NTHSB results

Neutral/Positive/Negative: ???? Unionization ?????

Any of these will have effect on short term TSLA. I am not sure how unionization will affect TSLA. Thoughts?

Unionization would be a huge negative for Tesla IMO. Thats why I think it was down today, albeit only a little. Elon knows whats best for the company so I trust he will make the best decision regardless, and I like to think the market feels this way too. It is sort of a messy subject matter though, so hopefully it is taken care of quickly. I don't think thats what the "all hands on deck" was referring to either. I was always view that statement as sort of a positive, getting pumped up, ready to do big things message. Such as getting excited and ready for the final Model X to be debuted. We do have to remember that the Model X, AWD Model S, NHTSA results, etc are all just rumors and speculation, though the evidence does point to them being very likely. Thankfully, the rest of the market does seem to be rather oblivious, there is also lots of upward potential, and of course that very high short interest, so if any of these rumors do materialize it will be explosive. I do believe the odds are in the bulls favor right now.
 
anyone placing any weekly bets on this price action squeeze and meeting? i was thinking about buying a since weekly $150 call tomorrow to see what happens. small bet for fun.

I bought some Jan 31 $155 strike calls on Friday and today. Not sure of any significant movement of the stock this week - my bet is on the reveal of Model X during the Detroit auto show, hopefully with some cool surprises, as well as any news that will come from the Panasonic press conference at the auto show next Monday.
 
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