Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[RationalOptimist]

Wu said the company aimed to double overall total sales this year. She put global sales at 23,000 to 24,000 last year.

I see that Reuters has put out a corrected version of the story that deletes the claim above about doubling, and amends the global sales number to 22,500. My guess: Tesla HQ freaked out at the story, and she told the reporter she was misquoted.

OFFICIAL CORRECTION -UPDATE 2-Tesla Motors outlines aggressive China growth plan - Yahoo Finance

This is good for avoiding overhyped expectations...!

 

[Krugerrand]

Why would Tesla announce an AWD Model S at a conference call? If I were Tesla I'd make an event at factory for this inviting people there and presenting how the Model S being the best car in the world is now even better etc etc. I would never make it just a conf call item.

For the same reason they used the Detroit Auto show in an entirely different way than every other mfg and announced Q4 results....because that's how Tesla rolls. Who knows if they will or not, but at this point it's as possible as anything else.

 

[NigelM]

There's already (by all accounts) enough good news in the Q4 results so don't count on a product announcement.

The launch of the Super-Sport Model S would be best done between earnings announcements as launching in front of analysts will immediately bring questions about price, demand, costs, margins and delivery dates. The Super-Sport is a niche product but could provide a nice intra-quarterly short-term bump.

 

[TSLAopt]

Why would Tesla announce an AWD Model S at a conference call? If I were Tesla I'd make an event at factory for this inviting people there and presenting how the Model S being the best car in the world is now even better etc etc. I would never make it just a conf call item.

The more I think about it, the more I think they won't even announce the AWD Model S until or unless they want more demand in existing markets. I feel like they developed the AWD already and are keeping that card in their back pocket for now. If/when their supply constraints pick up enough to more than meet current demand levels then they pull this AWD card out for the model S and Bam!! Demand shoots up even more overnight....imagine how many existing Model S owners will immediately want to upgrade to the AWD version and all the people on the sidelines that the AWD version will push them over the edge to buy it.

All the trade ins of existing Model S owners will also help cultivate a used Model S marketplace by Tesla where people who can't afford a brand new Model S will buy a used one for 60k all in instead of 80k all in.

 

[Norse]

I think they will wait with the Model S AWD until they can deliver it to the masses. And I guess that would be when the X is ready. There is no point in announcing it now, since alot of people will change their orders to an AWD.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I have a problem with accepting the premise of MS AWD reveal this year at all. Remember, TM can't meet current demand and are production constrained . They are set to agressively step-up production during the 2014 and with this being their main focus introducing new variant into themanufacturing process just does not make sense to me.

 

[Discoducky]

I'm inclined to agree with China pricing. Demand is not going to be a problem for at least a year and RHD is still in flight. Maybe the AWD S was truly just a test vehicle for the X. I hope not but throughput might be the prime directive.

 

[kenliles]

I think they will wait with the Model S AWD until they can deliver it to the masses. And I guess that would be when the X is ready. There is no point in announcing it now, since alot of people will change their orders to an AWD.

my thoughts are along these lines. The plan for AWD S to be concurrent with the Always-AWD X

 

[brianstorms]

I have a problem with accepting the premise of MS AWD reveal this year at all. Remember, TM can't meet current demand and are production constrained . They are set to agressively step-up production during the 2014 and with this being their main focus introducing new variant into themanufacturing process just does not make sense to me.

+100

 

[Jack6591]

I have a problem with accepting the premise of MS AWD reveal this year at all. Remember, TM can't meet current demand and are production constrained . They are set to agressively step-up production during the 2014 and with this being their main focus introducing new variant into themanufacturing process just does not make sense to me.

Elon will frame this question in the context of "Will it advance the electrification of transportation?"

 

[DaveT]

Elon will frame this question in the context of "Will it advance the electrification of transportation?"

... and "is it good for the customer?"

If Model S AWD is going to significantly increase existing wait times then it I think Tesla might wait until they can get wait times more manageable.

I lean toward a mid-year intro of the model S AWD, after they've successfully ramped existing production more.

 

[DaveT]

Hope to see you guys at TMC Connect this year.

TMC Connect 2014 - Save the Date - July 18-20

 

[pahar103]

3 Tweets from Elon Musk today:

1.Tesla Supercharger network now energized from New York to LA, both coast + Texas! Approx 80% of US population covered.

2. Will be doing the LA-NY family road trip over Spring Break. Made everyone watch National Lampoon's Vacation as prep.

3. Two teams from Tesla aiming to set a cross-country EV speed record this week. Departing Fri from LA, arriving Sun in NY.

:biggrin:

 

[uselesslogin]

3 Tweets from Elon Musk today:

1.Tesla Supercharger network now energized from New York to LA, both coast + Texas! Approx 80% of US population covered.

2. Will be doing the LA-NY family road trip over Spring Break. Made everyone watch National Lampoon's Vacation as prep.

3. Two teams from Tesla aiming to set a cross-country EV speed record this week. Departing Fri from LA, arriving Sun in NY.

:biggrin:

Plus a retweet that a father and his daughter were the first to make the cross-country trip using superchargers exclusively and they just arrived last night.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Hope to see you guys at TMC Connect this year.

TMC Connect 2014 - Save the Date - July 18-20

Thanks for posting this, Dave. We've renamed TESLive this year. I enjoyed meeting many of you last year, and we are going to make this next version even better.

 

[DaveT]

Thanks for posting this, Dave. We've renamed TESLive this year. I enjoyed meeting many of you last year, and we are going to make this next version even better.

I had a great time at TESLive last year and my wife and I are looking forward to this year's conference as well.

- - - Updated - - -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-tesla-china-idUSBREA0N0O720140124
Wu said the company aimed to double overall total sales this year. She put global sales at 23,000 to 24,000 last year. "I have my work cut out for me," Wu said in an interview. "But I am pretty confident."

Reuters made 2 updates to the article about China/Veronica Wu:
Update 1 : Reuters removed the reference to the court decision in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/us-tesla-china-idUSBREA0O04J20140125

Hmmm... so it looks like they didn't go to court?

Update 2: Reuters removed reference to double sales and lowered 2013 sales figure in this update: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/tesla-china-idUSL3N0KY34K20140125

I think Tesla likely contacted Reuters to correct the article, or Veronica could have contacted Reuters after Tesla management contacted her.

It could be that they don't want internal goals out in the public as official statements from the company, especially during this period before Q4 ER.

Also, it could be that Veronica had some figures confused and Tesla is not aiming to double annual sales but rather is aiming to double weekly production rate and/or weekly order rate by the end of the year (which is much different than annual sales).

 

[justthateasy]

Glad to see the news about the superchargers being completed. I hope it's enough good news to keep TSLA from getting dragged down by the rest of the market this week.

 

[aznt1217]

TSLA doesn't always track the market though so it's a crapshoot. I'm hoping a majority of the pain is priced in given the enormous drops the past 2 trading days. I do hope the supercharger news is received well in the markets though.

 

[Norse]

After what happened in the US on Friday, I feel that the Asian markets are doing good. NIKKEI is down a lot, but that happens every week.

 

[justthateasy]

I realize that it's still early as the pre-market just opened and it's on very light volume but I'm surprised to see TSLA down. The range so far is a high of 175.50 and low of 169 with volume at just over 2,500 according to NASDAQ. The last trade I saw was at 172.10. I really thought TSLA would jump to at least 177 in the pre-market with the supercharger news but that doesn't seem to be the case. Of course, we are still a long way until the end of the trading day.

What ever the case, I won't be surprised if we see a pullback in TSLA in the next couple of days considering it's overbought. It would actually be good on the technical side to see it test out support areas between 165-171 since it broke out last week. It's looking like a good time to lock in profits here and load up in a few days.