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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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One curious observation is that Elon was at SpaceX yesterday (tweeting F9 landing leg pics) and is scheduled for a 45 min Q&A discussion with Lyndon tomorrow... doesn't seem to indicate he's tied up finalizing deal details.

I took it the other way considering that he'll be co speaking with Rive and at the California Public Utilities Commission, seems like that would be a pretty good indicator of what will be on the talking agenda. So I am inclined to think that the the gigafactory is pretty much solidified, regarding a separate cap raise I don't see an indication whether that would be this week or some other time.
 
some claim that giga factory priced in. i dont think so. yes usually buy rumour and sell on anouncement but this is different. NOBODY knows what the gigafactory is other than partners involved and lots of batteries. all the partners not known. the structure, cost, time table effect on company all unknown. amount of secondary or timing of secondary not known. suspect move up were some shorts selling in anticipation of the announcement. i suspect most still short waiting to hear details.
 
some claim that giga factory priced in. i dont think so. yes usually buy rumour and sell on anouncement but this is different. NOBODY knows what the gigafactory is other than partners involved and lots of batteries. all the partners not known. the structure, cost, time table effect on company all unknown. amount of secondary or timing of secondary not known. suspect move up were some shorts selling in anticipation of the announcement. i suspect most still short waiting to hear details.

I agree. The idea of the gigafactory is priced in as well as the idea of a secondary offering. The weight of positive vs. negative from the details will push the stock either way. I am hoping for Panasonic + at least one other big name as a JV partner to give more credibility (as we know, Tesla is still seen as a flash in the pan by many) and lower the Tesla financial input to the factory. SCTY as a partner or in some other capacity would be great too as it would boost SCTY and put the idea of solar more into the mainstream investing world.
 
After hours action chart: after the bots/algos digested the info, the stock was down and INSTANTLY back up to close levels, and now -- up we go!

The details in the PDF are great, including 6,500 new good old American manufacturing jobs. I love that, and so will the press. I see strong upside potential in the morning and beyond. If this action holds, the market just said "WHO CARES, WHAT DILUTION, WE LOVE YOU TESLA."

giga announce.png


I'm also quite surprised by the low amount of this capital raise. The fact that they can do it with existing cashflow within the company + partners + this offering is just fantastic.
 
First impressions:
- strong offering of convertible notes due in 5-7 years. this means current float is not added to. shares remain scarce.
- cost of factory only $4-5 billion
- Tesla to contribute only $2 billion (so it appears this offering could be only contribution along with some money gained via operating profit over the next few/several years)
- it appears partners to contribute remaining amount, $2-3 billion

Overall, this is better than I expected. Well-presented. Minimal dilution and minimal contribution/investment by Tesla to Gigafactory.

This could become a blueprint to create more gigafactories in the future (ie., Tesla invests 40-50%, partners contribute rest) and could scale to many gigafactories, if needed.

Elon (and his team) is a genius.
 
The AH movement (down) started at 4:05. It took us a few minutes more to access the press release.
I had the release in my IB ticker at 4:10.
Question: How do the bots access those press releases minutes earlier than we do? Is there any way we can access it at the same time as the bots?

Genius move from Tesla...no new shares for now, keeps shorts under pressure...

Glad I picked up a few 160 weeklies just minutes before close... :)
 
Tesla's disruption of the $2 trillion auto industry is more imminent than ever before.

Without a doubt! This is literally planting a flag in American soil and saying "we are here to stay, and ready to change the world."

Incidentally, I would just LOVE the irony if they stuck the GF in West Texas. Maybe right outside Houston? :-D

You know what Texans love more than oil? MONEY. And Tesla is where the money will be in the next decade and beyond.
 
one thing that will be interesting to learn details about,

Tesla's option on whether to pay back with shares or cash at least on the surface sounds far better than what I knew was possible. Though it looks plainly stated, we'll have to see what the details are.
 
My understanding with convertible notes is that the holder (not Tesla) chooses how they want it converted (ie., into stock or cash) at the expiration date.

Looks like it's going to be Tesla's election to deliver cash or shares. And they can't be converted until after Dec 1, 2018 (for the 2019 notes) and Dec 1, 2020 (for the 2021 notes)

"Upon conversion of 2019 notes, we will deliver cash, shares of our common stock or a combination of cash and shares of our common stock, at our election, as described in this prospectus supplement. Upon conversion of 2021 notes, we will deliver cash and, if applicable, shares of our common stock (subject to our right to deliver cash in lieu of such shares of our common stock), as described in this prospectus supplement."
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2330621879x0xS1193125%2D14%2D69693/1318605/filing.pdf
 
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