Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[JRP3]

Will this battery change everything? - Fortune

Oh and this came out over the weekend, while I don't take issue with them progressing Solid State Lithium batteries (there is a lot of potential here) the claims in this article about Tesla selling their batteries at 500$/kWh is just silly... and they are trying to claim that the factory would only drop the price down to 250$/kWh... Silly...

Also, I don't see why Tesla wouldn't switch chemistries to Solid State or Silicon or whatever ends up becoming a proven technology as soon as someone actually PROVES it can do what they claim and at the price they claim. Otherwise, this is just more fluff. Good luck to these guys though, because if they can also hit 100$/kW then this will really help the EV adoption.

The implied concern is that Sakti3 is already working with GM so Tesla might be unable to work with them. What's missing of course is an actual wh/kg number. Claiming better energy density than "current" lithium ion cells is meaningless, since current density ranges from around 100wh/kg to 260wh/kg. I've never been able to find an actual wh/kg number for Sakti3.

 

[jhm]

I'm really liking this buying. I bought more shares today at $250 and am preparing to buy more at $240. I think we could see prices as low as $230. I am very encouraged by Musk's expectation to generate free cash flow by 2015Q3.

 

[Curt Renz]

Sunday New York Times article about California promoting the usage of electric cars: Log In - The New York Times

 

[FANGO]

That reiteration is definitely throwing us off with trading bots and what not probably inputting those figures.

Not a reiteration...a PT raise. Always hilarious to me when that leads to a drop.

 

[jhm]

Sunday New York Times article about California promoting the usage of electric cars: Log In - The New York Times

It looks like the auto industry lobbyists have been working over time to find a way to get public assistance for themselves to the exclusion of Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

It looks like the auto industry lobbyists have been working over time to find a way to get public assistance for themselves to the exclusion of Tesla.

How is that? The new laws seem to benefit all electric car manufacturers, including Tesla which is one of the members of the lobby that pushed for these laws: Members | PEV Collaborative

 

[Genebe]

Just in case anyone is panicking on the price right now, this is a broad market sell off. The Nasdaq is currently down 54 points (-1.18%) and still in an almost free fall, I don't know how much support TSLA is going to have on its own with the market just dropping. The best I could find on the reasoning for this is because the Housing market dropping in the number of houses sold (although rental prices are actually up).

I thought it was happening because I bought TSLA last week.
That's the way things usually work around here.

 

[FluxCap]

This is absolutely flagrant attempt at manipulation by GS.





So the company essentially tells an analyst that they can self-fund for all the currently run R&D and expansion projects (which company pretty much guided puts it on a path of 500K units in 2017), but would consider external funding if demand requires higher growth or other projects are taken.

The esteemed analyst,however, turns around and points that his research shows that company will need additional funding ...

I, of course, know about their internal firewalls, but consider this: while maintaining neutral rating throughout q2 2014 (essentially not recommending to buy shares of TSLA) GS increased their TSLA position in Q2 by 53,84%, buying additional 304,556 shares.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/institutional-holdings?page=2

Agreed, and it's sad. Again, analysts trying to shove stocks towards their flawed hypothesis to make themselves look good. Anyone have the data on the extent of the price action after the last Goldman Sachs "FUDgrade non-upgrade?"

 

[jhm]

How is that? The new laws seem to benefit all electric car manufacturers, including Tesla which is one of the members of the lobby that pushed for these laws: Members | PEV Collaborative

My concern is with targeting special tax credits for low income drivers. Such is more advantageous for traditional automakers that can make auto bodies quite cheaply than for Tesla. Tesla does not have a sub $25k car in sight. I do not see low income motorists as a good segment for Tesla until well past Gen 3. So basically I see this more as a way to subsidize low income mobility than to advance mainstream EV adoption.

 

[hershey101]

Closed right at $250... Idk what to think about that

 

[MikeC]

My concern is with targeting special tax credits for low income drivers. Such is more advantageous for traditional automakers that can make auto bodies quite cheaply than for Tesla. Tesla does not have a sub $25k car in sight. I do not see low income motorists as a good segment for Tesla until well past Gen 3. So basically I see this more as a way to subsidize low income mobility than to advance mainstream EV adoption.

The problem is that low-income drivers may not generate enough tax liability to get the $7500 refund. More EVs on the road are in Tesla's and (humanity's) best interest.

 

[FluxCap]

I know everyone is bummed about closing at $250, but good to see old Harry Reid trumpeting the right tune:

Top Democrat urges new EV incentives

 

[ckessel]

I know everyone is bummed about closing at $250, but good to see old Harry Reid trumpeting the right tune:

Top Democrat urges new EV incentives

Heh, Reid certainly has extra motivation to pass anything that helps Tesla now . Seems sort of irrelevant though as nothing ever passes through the senate anymore.

 

[AudubonB]

My concern is with targeting special tax credits for low income drivers. Such is more advantageous for traditional automakers that can make auto bodies quite cheaply than for Tesla. Tesla does not have a sub $25k car in sight. I do not see low income motorists as a good segment for Tesla until well past Gen 3. So basically I see this more as a way to subsidize low income mobility than to advance mainstream EV adoption.

This one really and truly hurts, jhm. Normally, I try not to let it gall me that you and most others paid $7,500 less for your Model S than I did for mine, but when I read posts like this, I will admit it sticks in my craw.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Top Democrat urges new EV incentives

I like this.

 

[jhm]

This one really and truly hurts, jhm. Normally, I try not to let it gall me that you and most others paid $7,500 less for your Model S than I did for mine, but when I read posts like this, I will admit it sticks in my craw.

Sorry about that. I don't have a Model S, but I suppose if I were to buy on I would qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit any way. My point is not about the federal credit. It's about California pivoting the politics to a low income versus high income issue. I am concerned that this will stir up all sorts of political resentment which will not be good for Tesla or EVs. Critics will contend that this is a useless government waste on an EV industry that cannot economically stand on its own two feet. While others will feel justified in resentment against Tesla for catering to the wealthy, a rich man's toy. So which is it? EVs are toys for the rich or government handouts for the poor. My fear is this will create a wedge issue that will be used against Tesla and EVs. Clearly this has the potential to be quite divisive. I would prefer Tesla to focus on making great cars and driving down the cost over time so that anyone can afford one. I do not believe any special tax breaks are needed to do so.

 

[Auzie]

Sorry about that. I don't have a Model S, but I suppose if I were to buy on I would qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit any way. My point is not about the federal credit. It's about California pivoting the politics to a low income versus high income issue. I am concerned that this will stir up all sorts of political resentment which will not be good for Tesla or EVs. Critics will contend that this is a useless government waste on an EV industry that cannot economically stand on its own two feet. While others will feel justified in resentment against Tesla for catering to the wealthy, a rich man's toy. So which is it? EVs are toys for the rich or government handouts for the poor. My fear is this will create a wedge issue that will be used against Tesla and EVs. Clearly this has the potential to be quite divisive. I would prefer Tesla to focus on making great cars and driving down the cost over time so that anyone can afford one. I do not believe any special tax breaks are needed to do so.

Politicians will do what they do best, speak on loudspeakers on divisive issues. Not sure that it matters much when deciding to buy a car. I would like to think that people buy cars that they like for other than political reasons, but I could be wrong.

 

[chickensevil]

Please keep in mind that today's movement was heavily influenced by the market and I am willing to bet that the GS report had little to do with it. I'm sure it contributed but if you look at the Nasdaq as a whole Tesla was moving just about in step all day... Including the rise at the end. My hope is that tomorrow the market will be back up and we push back to 255.

My guess is the drop isn't over, but we should recover a bit tomorrow. The market itself is at an all time high right now and the Nasdaq is almost above its all time high from the beginning of the century. Should be interesting to see where this goes.

 

[chickensevil]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000312844&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquote%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo

For what it's worth thus guy is saying 215 which is both the July low and the 200 day moving average. I would be a little sad to see it drop quote that far, but if it goes to there you better get a ton of cash ready cause that will be an amazing bottom.

 

[roblab]

This one really and truly hurts, jhm. Normally, I try not to let it gall me that you and most others paid $7,500 less for your Model S than I did for mine, but when I read posts like this, I will admit it sticks in my craw.

Just to say it, not all of us are rich, or were rich. Some of us saved, lived simply, and didn't make enough to collect the $7500 tax rebate. CA gave me $2500. Tesla makes cars for people who want a real electric vehicle. Right now, they are high end, yes. And the plan is to use the profits to gear up to make lower entry electrics, AS YOU KNOW. The goal is to save the world, which most people can't seem to worry about, and not to pay huge profits to the CEOs, as in Exxon Mobil, which most people are happy to continue doing forever. I'm glad you and I learned about Tesla and understand more of the game than most others, but I certainly don't mind Electrics getting subsidies when Oil and Auto get much larger ones.