Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Gtoffo]

"Deceived"???

The Master Plan of getting to gen3 needs a lot of capital. This could really help margins, and help Tesla fund gen3 R&D. I'm also holding for years, but won't begin to think of Tesla reneging on the mass market concept until I've seen gen3 base price. Everything else is just building resources.

Especially here in Europe I know of a lot of buyers holding back because of the lack of AWD in the Model S. Rear wheel drive isn't what people want to buy if they need to drive up the Alps for example. I think this has been a common complaint (remember that video about the MS's performance in the snow? I think it was to address this issue in the short term).

In Europe the D will open the door to the very prosperous markets of Northern Italy/Switzerland/Austria/Germany/France (big chunk of the "Blue Banana" Blue Banana - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).

 

[mitch672]

I posted this in the other thread, but this confirms All Wheel Drive Model S, likely they won't display it until after the reveal on the 9th:

Paris: Tesla Model S AWD A No Show - So Far

 

[Curt Renz]

I wonder if we are seeing the after lunch institutions stepping in. If they were hoping to buy around $220, they'll need to revise their entry price. Only 5 days till D.

The heavy volume of TSLA buying while approaching 12:30 EDT does appear indicative of interest from institutions and/or their bots. That may have triggered a cascade of covering by short sellers whose stop loss limits were met.

Keep in mind that weekly TSLA options expire today. Hedge funds often have a target strike price for which they have written both puts and calls. They would like to shut out the owners of both those puts and calls by making them worthless at the Friday market close. That allows the funds to keep all of the option premiums they earlier received. The cost of nudging the actual stock price toward the target strike can be more than made up with options profits, especially when considering the domino effect on retail stop loss orders.

 

[chickensevil]

The heavy volume of TSLA buying while approaching 12:30 EDT does appear indicative of interest from institutions and/or their bots. That may have triggered a cascade of covering by short sellers whose stop loss limits were met.

Keep in mind that weekly TSLA options expire today. Hedge funds often have a target strike price for which they have written both puts and calls. They would like to shut out the owners of both those puts and calls by making them worthless at the Friday market close. That allows the funds to keep all of the option premiums they earlier received. The cost of nudging the actual stock price toward the target strike can be more than made up with options profits, especially when considering the domino effect on retail stop loss orders.

If they are trying to pick a strike to fall within, it looks like there is quite a bit of effort to keep us in the 255-257.50 range keeping us from breaching 257.50 and keeping us above 255. There is also a massive amount of calls that traded hands at the 255 strike (16,000 contracts).

- - - Updated - - -

I would actually bet more likely that they are trying to push us below 255, so it will be interesting to see if they can do that. Since the Put volume that is the largest is the 252.50 strike. So for the largest amount of options to expire worthless would likely be targeting a sub 255 close price which we keep dancing around.

 

[RobotGrease]

Looks like we are getting some resistance at the closing-high previous to the last rally:

 

[TSLAROX]

Short-term thread; long-term thoughts:
My intention is to hold the shares we have for the next four to five decades...and after that, it won't be my decision. HOWEVER....if this Veyron-beater, etc., that has been the focus of the past 2-3 pages here is indeed what we'll be seeing come 9 October, there is a very strong likelihood we'll be exiting our position far earlier. I don't take kindly to be deceived.

My initial reaction to hearing (from a credible source) that the AWD Model S supercar would be released before Model X was disappointment and dismay. I was especially worried about the "rich man's toy" narrative being given some credence. However, I do think this will give Tesla more time to perfect the dual motor before Model X release. The impact on the stock would be much worse if the X was released before it was ready. The Model S was released before it was ready, but early adopters were patient and understanding about this. I don't think Model X customers would be so understanding.

 

[FluxCap]

My initial reaction to hearing (from a credible source) that the AWD Model S supercar would be released before Model X was disappointment and dismay. I was especially worried about the "rich man's toy" narrative being given some credence. However, I do think this will give Tesla more time to perfect the dual motor before Model X release. The impact on the stock would be much worse if the X was released before it was ready. The Model S was released before it was ready, but early adopters were patient and understanding about this. I don't think Model X customers would be so understanding.

I would urge you all to remember this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

Guys, the focus of the company is directed squarely at achieving volume production of the Model III car. If you have a problem with adding a motor to the front of the Model S to sell performance sedans to a wider audience that has strong demand for AWD, and to continue to prove that electric powertrains are superior in every way to combustion alternatives, then perhaps you might read the Secret Master Plan again, and take a breath. This is a great thing for the company, for owners, and for shareholders.

Also, Elon's tweet added $1.4billion in market cap in a day. This is the short-term trading thread. As a shareholder and believer, I'm certainly not complaining.

 

[RobStark]

Originally Posted by CalDreamin

FYI -- The Porsche 911 S and 911 4S differ by only 0.1 sec in the 0-60 test. Same amount of power, distributed to 4 wheels instead of 2, doesn't make much of a difference in maximum acceleration.

To get a 0-60 time near or below 3 seconds, the Model S might need about double the power of a P85. Double the power output might not be possible with the 85 kWh pack.

It would make a huge difference if each axle had its own engine. That's what you get with the Model SD, one full motor for each axle. Besides the P85 is traction limited for acceleration right now. The first 40mph is all traction management.

Plus One

 

[FluxCap]

The heavy volume of TSLA buying while approaching 12:30 EDT does appear indicative of interest from institutions and/or their bots. That may have triggered a cascade of covering by short sellers whose stop loss limits were met.

Keep in mind that weekly TSLA options expire today. Hedge funds often have a target strike price for which they have written both puts and calls. They would like to shut out the owners of both those puts and calls by making them worthless at the Friday market close. That allows the funds to keep all of the option premiums they earlier received. The cost of nudging the actual stock price toward the target strike can be more than made up with options profits, especially when considering the domino effect on retail stop loss orders.

Curt is right. Deep-pocket market makers have been bankrolling protection of max pain for the last several weeks. That strategy works very well with a predictable stock. I sure wouldn't play that game with a stock like TSLA with less than a few hundred million to throw around defensively. Must be nice, eh?

 

[Krugerrand]

I would urge you all to remember this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

Guys, the focus of the company is directed squarely at achieving volume production of the Model III car. If you have a problem with adding a motor to the front of the Model S to sell performance sedans to a wider audience that has strong demand for AWD, and to continue to prove that electric powertrains are superior in every way to combustion alternatives, then perhaps you might read the Secret Master Plan again, and take a breath. This is a great thing for the company, for owners, and for shareholders.

Also, Elon's tweet added $1.4billion in market cap in a day. This is the short-term trading thread. As a shareholder and believer, I'm certainly not complaining.

Hear! Hear!

It's interesting that even after all this time and Tesla/Elon proving over and over again that it's/he's got this (the path to the ultimate goal), there are doubters among this group of majority supporters.

 

[Curt Renz]

I would urge you all to remember this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

Guys, the focus of the company is directed squarely at achieving volume production of the Model III car. If you have a problem with adding a motor to the front of the Model S to sell performance sedans to a wider audience that has strong demand for AWD, and to continue to prove that electric powertrains are superior in every way to combustion alternatives, then perhaps you might read the Secret Master Plan again, and take a breath. This is a great thing for the company, for owners, and for shareholders.

Also, Elon's tweet added $1.4billion in market cap in a day. This is the short-term trading thread. As a shareholder and believer, I'm certainly not complaining.

Thanks for the reminder. It's something all the FUDster short sellers at Seeking Alpha need to read. But they won't.

 

[Causalien]

Plus One

From what I learned with the Norge. The AWD will make a difference in winter driving with the P85+. As a Canuk, this is important.

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt is right. Deep-pocket market makers have been bankrolling protection of max pain for the last several weeks. That strategy works very well with a predictable stock. I sure wouldn't play that game with a stock like TSLA with less than a few hundred million to throw around defensively. Must be nice, eh?

And during the closing ten minutes when TSLA started galloping above 255, they were nearly able to knock it back down to that level. Here's how it's done: Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated - YouTube

 

[clmason]

I would urge you all to remember this:

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) | Blog | Tesla Motors

Guys, the focus of the company is directed squarely at achieving volume production of the Model III car. If you have a problem with adding a motor to the front of the Model S to sell performance sedans to a wider audience that has strong demand for AWD, and to continue to prove that electric powertrains are superior in every way to combustion alternatives, then perhaps you might read the Secret Master Plan again, and take a breath. This is a great thing for the company, for owners, and for shareholders.

Also, Elon's tweet added $1.4billion in market cap in a day. This is the short-term trading thread. As a shareholder and believer, I'm certainly not complaining.

From the Blog:

So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options​

Buying into the vision from day 1, I was personally not happy when Model X happened. I was thinking that's not part of the "master plan". However, as the company developed I understood and came to realize Tesla has some of the most brilliant engineers AND business minds on the planet. I have kept the faith and have been rewarded well. Whenever I lose faith I remind myself to check the ROI on my $22 shares. Then I wish I never sold my $18 shares.

 

[FluxCap]

And during the closing ten minutes when TSLA started galloping above 255, they were nearly able to knock it back down to that level. Here's how it's done: Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated - YouTube

There you have it. Sickens me every time I watch that video, but at least I know it exists.

"When you're in that hedge fund mode, don't do anything truthful. Make up a new truth." "The SEC is too dumb to understand what you're doing."

From my own portfolio, the only way I have found to beat manipulation like this as a retail investor in the long-term is buy and hold, while occasionally capitalizing on short-term momentum events that swing a stock beyond the range within which it can be suppressed artificially and "cheaply." The vultures eventually lose interest in a stock that becomes more difficult to manipulate, but they can and will come back to a stock when they smell vulnerability. They have for now returned to TSLA to take advantage of relatively flat trading going into Q3, seeking to magnify the duration of that "flatness," i.e. ensure that the options they write expire worthless each week. They know they will not be able to hold TSLA flat forever, but for now it seems someone is throwing a lot of money at defending a relatively flat price.

 

[Muskol]

Trip Chowdhry is claiming Model 3 is being unveiled next week.

I'm not sure I buy it, this is also the guy who was touting that multiple Gigafactory locations will be developed in parallel. We will see, but if he's wrong again he will lose all credibility.

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

 

[Twiddler]

Trip Choudry is claiming Model 3 is being unveiled next week.

I'm not sure I buy it, this is also the guy who was touting that multiple Gigafactory locations will be developed in parallel. We will see, but if he's wrong again he will lose all credibility.

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

The cynical side of me wonders if this could not be a short in disguise, priming the pumps for a disappointment/sell-the-news event after the announcement.

 

[jhm]

So if hedges are insuring flatness, perhaps the way to play is to sell options and buy the stock. Just wondering aloud.

 

[Muskol]

The cynical side of me wonders if this could not be a short in disguise, priming the pumps for a disappointment/sell-the-news event after the announcement.

You may be on to him.

Is he new on the scene or is it just me? I don't recall him on any conference calls I've listened to. It seems like he came out with his $400 target (I think) when TSLA was rallying in August, and proceeded to talk it up into the Gigafactory Nevada presser...

 

[Curt Renz]

Trip Chowdhry is claiming Model 3 is being unveiled next week.

I'm not sure I buy it, this is also the guy who was touting that multiple Gigafactory locations will be developed in parallel. We will see, but if he's wrong again he will lose all credibility.

Tesla to show Model 3, new sedan version Oct. 9: report - MarketWatch

Thanks for that. There's no indication from MarketWatch of how Chowdhry got his information. It could simply be speculation, or he may have uncovered something. If he's right, now we have to wonder whether the D refers to what the Model 3 will actually be called, or if its for the Dual motors to be made available for the Model S.