Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[brianman]

So we are bleeding over $6 negative now..

Hey twinklejet, glad you're up and posting!

Maybe you can assist me with some quick links.

According to [1]Yahoo's (US) page, the "Pre-Market" is around $250.25 which seems to be in line with your $6 negative comment.

Can you recommend a page that will show me the Options pricing in the market that this is referring to? The [2] Yahoo (US) page for options only has the US market (i.e. yesterday's) options pricing.

I'm trying to get a feel for what the US market for options will look like if the $250ish price holds at the open of the US market at 9:30a ET.


Thanks.

[1] TSLA: Summary for Tesla Motors, Inc.- Yahoo! Finance
[2] TSLA Options | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

 

[ev-enthusiast]

The list of "what other car companies can offer Tesla in the realm of education" is shrinking quickly.

This is similar to my thoughts this morning:
- Mechanical engineering expertise to produce a cutting edge technology EV is getting less and less important (sadly).
- Software engineering and electronics get more and more important.

Scenario:
You're a happy owner of a brand new Model S in color (-please insert color of your choice-) including autopilot feature.
While you are driving on a highway put on autopilot mode and you enjoy a nice café latte grade.
While you enjoy your café, your life lies in the hands of the autopilots algorithms / software / electronics while driving in autopilot mode!
Question:
Where's the best know how to be found on this planet for designing such mavellous pice of high tec?
Answer:
Cailfornia, Silicon Valley
Answer2:
IMO the fact that Tesla Model S is made in Sillicon Valley, could be a Quality Feature for a lot of potential customers!
If I had to choose between an autopilot developped in Silicon Valley or somewhere else on this planet, I would definitley prefer the one from Silicon Valley!

 

[Auzie]

So we are bleeding over $6 negative now.. would appreciate any input to any potential Q4 impact..? good.. bad.. no effect? Everybody's talking about how great the event last night was and few want to talk about the short term price impact? scrolling back a few pages and the closest discussion I can see is if tesla is not delivering the D straightaway then Q4 will be impacted by deferrals and cancellations while people switch to the D.. and that everyone is expecting a sell on the news? I'm hoping for an upgrade or two is that even possible since there's no X reveal?

My guess is that people who talk about event are mostly long term investors with little concern for short term price movements.

After seeing few videos of the event, I expected price spike, but sp seems to be going the other way in pre market.

My interpretation of such move is that market still does not get Tesla. If that is the case, I would expect more Tsla upside once market starts catching up with understanding Tesla's achievements better.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sorry for beeing off topic.
German DAX currently taking a small nose dive? Any reason?
DAX Live | DAX Parkettkamera | finanzen.net

German TecDAX: -2,6%

 

[Renaud]

Mmmh...indeed that pre-market price action is not nice to look at. Anybody sees the volume? For some reason, I can't. But ok, it's very early.
Would it be then again a buy on the rumor sell on the news?
Before the tweet, it seemed clear to me that everything was pointing to a correction down to the 200 dma.
Now after the reveal, I think market will not realize, initially, that the AWD is more than an AWD on any other car (better handling, greater efficiency for the S, and amazing supercar performance) and that the autopilot features are a step ahead of competition (it's more capable, and it's on an EV).
Market might be disapointed that they didn't reveal anything else (X or III). Until EM's interview, I was pretty sure that the X was going to be there as well...
And on top, Europe and Asia in red.
So, in light of this, I wouldn't be surprised if we go rapidly to a before tweet situation, untill next chapter of the trilogy (that would be good Q3, X reveal, III) starts a rally to 300-320.
The best car got even better, but I think it will take some time for people to realize...

 

[brianman]

This is similar to my thoughts this morning:
- Mechanical engineering expertise to produce a cutting edge technology EV is getting less and less important (sadly).
- Software engineering and electronics get more and more important.

Scenario:
You're a happy owner of a brand new Model S in color (-please insert color of your choice-) including autopilot feature.
While you are driving on a highway put on autopilot mode and you enjoy a nice café latte grade.
While you enjoy your café, your life lies in the hands of the autopilots algorithms / software / electronics while driving in autopilot mode!
Question:
Where's the best know how to be found on this planet for designing such mavellous pice of high tec?
Answer:
Cailfornia, Silicon Valley
Answer2:
IMO the fact that Tesla Model S is made in Sillicon Valley, could be a Quality Feature for a lot of potential customers!
If I had to choose between an autopilot developped in Silicon Valley or somewhere else on this planet, I would definitley prefer the one from Silicon Valley!

You're not thinking forward enough.

I'm staring a rumor: Starting with firmware 9.0, all firmware development will be done by engineers in Tesla vehicles running on autopilot. This gives them the opportunity to test their features immediately while developing them.*

* Note: All employees that work on this features have to a sign a waiver absolving Tesla of all blame and liability should something unforeseen happen, ranging from a mundane vehicle body-meld with a concrete wall to more exotic alien abductions.

- - - Updated - - -

Mmmh...indeed that pre-market price action is not nice to look at. Anybody sees the volume? For some reason, I can't.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=TSLA
$248.75
Volume: 11.1K

 

[DaveT]

Everyone watch this!

FASTEST SEDAN EVER MADE EVER:

AUTONOMOUS TEST DRIVE:

Tesla Model S P85D AWD and auto-pilot demo - YouTube

I got to do a test ride together with AlMC and Mulder1231 tonight in a P85D. Here's the video of our ride:
Test drive of Tesla P85D with dual-motor performance and Autopilot - YouTube

I have to say, I was floored. Speechless. It was insane. A P85 is a nice car but the P85D is a monster and feels like something completely different. I didn't know a car could go/feel that fast.

And then Autopilot was equally as impressive. The car follows even curvy roads, changes lanes and just stops smoothly. I'm not sure how much of these features will be available right away, but it doesn't matter as more features can be added via software updates.

So, anyway some of these thoughts aren't short-term but I'll post them here anyway:
1. Dual-motor increases demand in a lot of ways. Cold area folks will want dual-motor. Supercar folks will want dual-motor performance version. Others might want it just because it boosts range (ie., by 30 miles on the 85kwh) or because it might handle better.

2. Autopilot increases demand. It's impressive that this doesn't cost $3-6k additionally. Rather it's only a marginal increase in the Tech package cost (I think the price went up to $4250 from $3750). Now the 60kwh version becomes even more appealing, since it gets Autopilot for basically $500 additional. Same goes for the 85kwh and the P version. And when you buy it, you know Autopilot is going to get better and better.

3. #1 and #2 are probably some of the reasons why Elon is so confident demand won't be an issue.

4. Model X will probably be crazy. Maybe the Model X performance dual-motor version might go 0-60mph in 3.7 seconds(?). That would be amazing for an SUV. And with Autopilot.

5. By the time Gen3 comes along, Tesla will have improved on Autopilot significantly and it will be a great feature to further distinguish the Model 3.

 

[SteveG3]

So we are bleeding over $6 negative now.. would appreciate any input to any potential Q4 impact..? good.. bad.. no effect? Everybody's talking about how great the event last night was and few want to talk about the short term price impact? scrolling back a few pages and the closest discussion I can see is if tesla is not delivering the D straightaway then Q4 will be impacted by deferrals and cancellations while people switch to the D.. and that everyone is expecting a sell on the news? I'm hoping for an upgrade or two is that even possible since there's no X reveal?

In August, when Q2 results were released, the stock went from about $223 to $213 in after hours trading when the shareholder letter was out but before the earnings call. Stock quickly turned around in after hours, and started the 4-5 week run that brought the stock to $290. Granted, much of the good stuff was on the earnings call, but the shareholder letter had the 100K run rate exiting 2015 projection. No way to know what happened that day, or if it's being repeated now, but it could be what Cramer described in his infamous stock manipulation youtube video (hit the premarket with sells to make it look like the stock is diving to rattle longs into selling themselves).

As to deferrals and cancellations. I was concerned about this too. However, if people are locked in two weeks ahead of production, production is locked in through October 23rd. What's more, Elon said typical time from completion of production to delivery is 3 to 4 weeks. Thus, the production/shipping pipeline is locked in already for deliveries through mid-November at this point. The start date of P85D deliveries is December. Let's assume mid-December. So they need to keep roughly 5,000 orders from canceling/deferring to avoid headaches (5 weeks at 1K cars delivered/week). If half the people prefer AWD to rear-wheel drive, they'd need a backlog of 10K orders for this to sort itself out well. I think the backlog is significantly larger than 10K orders, and this is not even counting anyone who buys the car in the next few weeks (and their are likely some who will be wowed about autopilot but don't need AWD). It's early morning here, maybe I got something wrong with this, but I think they're in good shape.

 

[Renaud]

brianman and Twinkle, thanks for the info on the pre-market volume.

And we start to see the first stupid articles on SA...

Oh by the way, the P85 has 470 hp. Wasn't it 417 before?
the regulars 60 and 85 have now 380 hp. Isn't it an upgrade as well?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Germany:
- DAX: -2.0%
- TecDAX: -3.6%

 

[brianman]

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=TSLA
$248.75
Volume: 11.1K

Hm. When I first loaded the page it had volume at 4.0K, then it showed 11.1K later, and now it's back to 4.0K. I'm not sure we can trust this volume data.

 

[FANGO]

Was at the event 'til very late, so catching up with comments here. Additions to the conversation:

1) Electromechanical braking means there is no more vacuum pump for the brakes, which means one less part to deal with, and one less thing that makes noise and vibration on the car. And if the brakes are better, that's great, because the Model S already had better braking performance than anything even close to the same size...even better braking than the i8, which is 1300lbs lighter.

2) As mentioned earlier, the new range numbers are at 65mph, not EPA, so they're different than the EPA numbers. But the old "300 mile" number was at 55mph, so we'll definitely see an improvement there.

3) Performance Plus has been subsumed into D. + is no longer available, D is the new "super-performance" option. The suspension changes and whatnot have been implemented but re-jiggered for the D.

4) Speaking of the i8 above, note now that the Model S completely destroys it in performance, despite being 1300lbs heavier, 3 more seats, and 15k less expensive.

5) The seats are different, with more bolstering around the sides.

6) Sigurdi mentioned that one huge benefit of AWD in cold climates is that now the regen will work on the front axle and not just the rear. Regen on the rear is rough in bad road conditions, because you do not want to apply negative torque to the rear axle, as this will cause a spin, so most owners will run in low regen mode in cold areas. Also, if you trip traction control while regenning, the car will surge forward a little, which is troublesome as well (at least this happens in my Roadster on a particular bump on the way into my neighborhood, which is fine for me, but I could see how it would be scary to people who don't understand it). But if there's a front motor, that will be much better for icy-road regen.

7) Had a brief conversation with Franz, where he said something like "hey, that would be nice if the Model X was just as fast as the P85D, wouldn't it?" I imagined a wink at the end of that. Basically, Tesla will have the fastest SUV, pretty much for sure, I think. I'll see DaveT's 3.7 and raise him 3.5.

8) As DaveT said, tech package cost is going up $500, but includes autopilot and parking sensors. So basically, the autopilot thing is "free." As if they didn't have a high enough option take rate for tech package already (I think it was already above 90%), I expect it to approach 100%

 

[SteveG3]

I usually wait for a stupid obvious cheap price before buying any trading shares, but sometimes stupid obvious wrong response to news is enough for me. just picked up some shares at $248 and change. ready for more if it drops from here.

- - - Updated - - -

4. Model X will probably be crazy. Maybe the Model X performance dual-motor version might go 0-60mph in 3.7 seconds(?). That would be amazing for an SUV. And with Autopilot.

If these guys have it right, that would be tops among SUVs by 0.6 seconds

http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2014/02/top-10-fastest-suvs.html/11

 

[Johan]

A bit of sell the rumor now, eh? Glad I followed my own advice and got out all those calls this morning though missing the intraday peak by about $1.50. I will stick to my thesis though that we'll see a further sell-off after the show tonight. Mr. Market is harder and harder to impress and has come to expect more and more from Tesla and TSLA.

Premarket says it all... 247.99 right now, down $9. I see buying oportunity, we just have to be careful now since Q3 might be a bit hit-and-miss when it comes to deliveries and we all know how myopic Wall Street is (they can usually see about 3 months in to the future).

 

[FANGO]

Premarket says it all... 247.99 right now, down $9. I see buying oportunity, we just have to be careful now since Q3 might be a bit hit-and-miss when it comes to deliveries and we all know how myopic Wall Street is (they can usually see about 3 months in to the future).

I feel like they will hit q3 delivery targets, but just barely. They were calling in employees from all over to do deliveries (even heard from one employee who isn't customer facing yet still did deliveries at EOQ), and delivery people were working looong hours to gets cars out. They've done pushes like this before to hit targets and I feel like they probably did. Thats just a feeling though. And who knows maybe the market will be bitchy and think meeting targets isn't enough.

Because they're certainly being bitchy today if they weren't impressed by what we saw tonight. I think it's cause people didn't see video, they're just looking at headlines, thinking AWD is boring. But it's not. Wondering how long it will take to realize that. Maybe we will need automotive press to do full reviews, hmm. I wonder if MT will clock it sub 3 since they test with a rollout...

 

[Johan]

One way to play this dip is to buy calls a few weeks out and try to capture an upwards move in anticipation of the Q3 report where we likely will get another "sell on the news" IMO. The important question here is when will main stream media and investors get the meaning of last night? During trading hours today? Next week?

 

[jhm]

This is similar to my thoughts this morning:
- Mechanical engineering expertise to produce a cutting edge technology EV is getting less and less important (sadly).
- Software engineering and electronics get more and more important.

Exactly why this should be called a Digital Car, not an EV. Tesla is the first digital car maker.

 

[dalalsid]

Tesla's Model S order page is confusing. Is "autopilot" standard? Or is it part of the Tech package?

 

[twinklejet]

Volume exceeded 170,000 on heavy selling. Currently negative over $16 (over 6% drop)... I have a feeling the market was expecting Model X or Model 3 thanks to that stupid hyped up report by GER and all the speculations.. along with all the self-denials when EM stated he will NOT have any comment about those future models... sigh

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Tesla's Model S order page is confusing. Is "autopilot" standard? Or is it part of the Tech package?

The hardware and the safety features it allows are standard.
Autopilot, which is the ability for the car to do thing for you automatically or more easily, is part of the tech package.