Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Raffy.Roma]

Creamer just totally bashed Tesla and Elon, David faber had to stick up for him...I lose all respect for Cramer.

Envy for the success of Tesla and Elon IMO. The Model S D is now the best car of the world IMO.

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...ok, anybody with a crystal ball for the next couple of minutes?

My crystal ball says up 1% in the next two minutes (but best crystal ball belongs to Causalien :biggrin

 

[vgrinshpun]

That page needs to be fixed. Under the title "Autopilot", it talks about things that come standard.

How low does everyone think the stock will go?

The hardware is included. Note, however, wording under the Tech Package:

Autopilot convenience features available through software updates

Versus wording for the map updates:

Onboard maps and navigation for North America with free updates for 7 years

I interpret above distinction as meaning that Autopilot features will be available for purchase as they come out, for those who purchased Tech Package. This is really smart move. Although the hardware is included as standard, without any increase in base price, the Autopilot features will be available for purchasing at a later day. This means that when a particular suite of features becomes available TM can potentially sell them not only on cars that are built starting from the date of release of the suite of new features, but on ALL cars that were manufactured starting in October 2014.

This is the way for TM to recoup money which are currently "lost" because they do not charge anything for the hardware. Very, very smart.

 

[justthateasy]

I hate days like these. Looks like we're back exactly where we were the day Elon sent out the tweet. Let's see if the 100-day MA holds.

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So instead of that gap up to 270 or 280, we got a gap down to the low 240s.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It is not about Elon, it is about how easy it is to excite general public while talking about AWD response time, about how dual motor AWD can reduce turning radius, how it can enhance Driver Assist features, etc. etc.

For example we have a lot of discussion about Tesla's DA being no different than what other manufacturers are already offering. These people are clueless, they do not understand that DA features not only include cameras/sensors and software, but the MEANS of controlling the vehicle based on input from the software. Controlling car movement with dual motor drive is much more precise and responsive than throttling an ICE, shifting gears, and applying brakes! It is not even close!

I am truly sorry, but I was right, the wallstreet and public at large just have no clue about what just happend at the "D Relaese". I have a faint hope that it will take few days for information to be absorbed and acted upon.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

So instead of that gap up to 270 or 280, we got a gap down to the low 240s.

As the overall story got even better overnight -> buying opp?

 

[Citizen-T]

I love days like these. Yesterday's puts up 410%. Trying to figure out when to flip them for calls. These puts themselves came from calls that I made 100% on. This time I'm adding to my LEAPs though, no more short-term stuff for a few weeks. I need to get some work done.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Let's see if the 100-day MA holds.

The 100-day MA is sitting currently at $239, correct?

 

[Renaud]

I hate days like these. Looks like we're back exactly where we were the day Elon sent out the tweet. Let's see if the 100-day MA holds.

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So instead of that gap up to 270 or 280, we got a gap down to the low 240s.

Yes, seems the tweet and everything associated to it were just a break from the trend it entered after the last ATH. I think we will go down to the 200 dma, or close to it, like some people say it was supposed to do technically. Last two time we got really close to the 200 dma, it was the start of a rally that propelled the stock close to 100 above the 200dma.
So PT of 320 or so? But first, the pain...

Our own private roller coaster...

 

[Causalien]

$241 is the low after elon comments that the stock is too high and before the hint of Model D. therefore the market is saying that the impact of Model D and Drive assist is completely none existent. Discount by 4% for the general market trend since the mention of D. One can then properly discount the risk reward of a position.

Sorry, my crystal ball doesn't work today since it's news day also, I generally don't mention it when it is negative or less than 1% move as I don't believe in shorting.

But for people who need short term TA. We have more gaps that need to be filled on the upside than we do for the down side.

 

[FluxCap]

I love days like these. Yesterday's puts up 410%. Trying to figure out when to flip them for calls. These puts themselves came from calls that I made 100% on. This time I'm adding to my LEAPs though, no more short-term stuff for a few weeks. I need to get some work done.

Amen, it's as if our mouse-fingers are joined as one. I'm doing the exact same thing.

 

[InTheShadows]

I love days like these. Yesterday's puts up 410%. Trying to figure out when to flip them for calls. These puts themselves came from calls that I made 100% on. This time I'm adding to my LEAPs though, no more short-term stuff for a few weeks. I need to get some work done.

I already did. I feel it's like a slingshot

Bought a boat load of 260's for .04

 

[justthateasy]

The 100-day MA is sitting currently at $239, correct?

239.35 to be exact.

 

[Citizen-T]

I already did. I feel it's like a slingshot

Bought a boat load of 260's for .04

Good move, my hesitation just saw my profits drop to 300%. Going I think I'm gonna bail if we retest that $241 level.

 

[ck1116]

AWD and Auto Pilot are exciting, but frankly, I was also a little disappointed that nothing about Model X or 3 was mentioned. That's why stock price plumping after the event, it's likely to end at 24x today...

 

[FluxCap]

239.35 to be exact.

JTE!

Good to see you back around, not the greatest day though. Are you net short at the moment?

 

[trils0n]

AWD and Auto Pilot are exciting, but frankly, I was also a little disappointed that nothing about Model X or 3 was mentioned. That's why stock price plumping after the event, it's likely to end at 24x today...

If you look a little closer, they did reveal info about the Model X. Since it will share the same dual motor AWD drivetrain, and autopilot, you can conclude it will be awesome, just like the vehicles they unveiled last night. It will probably get better range than most were expecting. Model S 85 goes from 265 -> 295 @65mph. That is big.

Also to me, it means they will have an easier time getting Model 3 to 200 miles range. If dual motor drivetrain helps this much, battery improvement will need to be smaller to reach range goal

 

[justthateasy]

JTE!

Good to see you back around, not the greatest day though. Are you net short at the moment?

Thanks, been way too busy to post but do lurk and read the forums on a regular basis.

I haven't really had the time to trade these days so I decided to stay very long with the shares I purchased earlier in the year. I've lost about half my potential profit since we were at 291 because I wasn't able to sell at that time.

I never really short a stock because of how bad my timing is.

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Looks like the 100-day MA is going to get tested soon. Here comes a cascade of stops being triggered.

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Where's that 7% circuit breaker?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

If you look a little closer, they did reveal info about the Model X. Since it will share the same dual motor AWD drivetrain, and autopilot, you can conclude it will be awesome, just like the vehicles they unveiled last night. It will probably get better range than most were expecting. Model S 85 goes from 265 -> 295 @65mph. That is big.

Last night was definitely a big implicit preview of what is to come with Model X.

I was concerned that Model X might have a range issue due to larger size than S and AWD, but we now know that Dual Motor actually increases powertrain efficiency!

That Tesla has the powertrain done and ready for sale this December boosts my confidence in their plans a lot.

 

[Citizen-T]

Amen, it's as if our mouse-fingers are joined as one. I'm doing the exact same thing.

Out half my puts for 500% gain. Letting the rest ride for now.

 

[hockeythug]

AWD and Auto Pilot are exciting, but frankly, I was also a little disappointed that nothing about Model X or 3 was mentioned. That's why stock price plumping after the event, it's likely to end at 24x today...

Musk said at the Vanity Fair event on Wednesday that neither the X or the 3 were going to be mentioned. Shouldn't have been a suspirse for the informed TSLA shareholder.