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Perfectlogic
Member
TSLA made a new ATH 6 weeks ago around $290, I would argue we are in a better position now compared to then with the D event showing significant improvements to the Model S which also improves the outlook of the X as it will share the same features. I think there is a lot who are afraid of missing guidance for Q3, even on this otherwise bullish board it seems like most aren't feeling very good about it, personally I think we will meet guidance which in turn will let the stock reach the ATH again and beyond on optimism about Q4 and 2015 guidance which should be great; double revenue and our first year with significant net profit.
All of this view I share as well. Goodluck to anyone hoping to buy back in at a lower price, especially if the macro market volatility dies down and the macro market goes back into bull market mode
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Sure, if the macro situation switches then sure. However, how likely is that in the next 3 weeks? ER is probably 1st week of november...
In sharing some of the concern, I would be less surprised if Q3 were OK, but not surprised if the conversion rate to "D" orders is high enough that they need to guide-down on Q4 unit sales. I was confronted by some OA's who argued Tesla had room for another price hike ("order now"). No surprise, there, but to my eyes AWD/Auto-Pilot did get priced low enough to signal the opposite. It will be interesting to hear on the call just how the "S"/"P" vs. "SD"/"PD" order rate is shaking out.
Well, there is the debate. We three are all 'longs' and don't think the long term fundamentals for TM have changed but how will the macros affect the short term price and 'Mr. Market' react to Q3ER?? Honestly, I don't know. Personally, I don't think it is a bad time to buy TSLA for long term gain, but with my short term money I think we will see a better price than $230 before or just after Q3ER.
Chickenlittle
Banned
if having problem with guidance then why delay the nonperformance D to February?
Well, don't get me wrong, I'm long as well and do not plan to sell my core position of TSLA: I think the long term fundamentals look even better now than ever, and I plan to purchase more TSLA. Just do not know when.
I'm just wondering the reaction for a very short horizon (up to Q3 ER and right after Q3 ER), and a bit longer one (Q4 ER), because of other products closely dependant of the price action (mini long certifivates)
I'm nor optimist or pessimist, it's just that many things are cristal clear for us but then between those who don't understand, don't want to understand because of other interest, the message that those uninformed might get is not clear at all. There is not much information coming from Tesla itself, and some analysts have a strange way of showing their information, so what's gonna be the result of all this?
green1
Active Member
I'm not sure how more D orders would hurt Q4 sales.... more orders means MORE sales, not fewer. And any conversion from one product to another doesn't change number of units (but likely increases profit margin)
They aren't going to stop the production line because they don't have enough non-D orders while holding all the D orders to start after Q4, they'll keep the line running and make whatever people ordered.
My guess for Q4 is exactly the number of units that they would have had without the D launch (meaning however many they can get the line to pump out because we're still production constrained) but an increase in profit as more people take the expensive P85D that otherwise wouldn't have.
chickensevil
Active Member
About today's price movement. It looks like the big boys are holding the stock between 230 and 232.50 for the purpose of manipulating the options market. I noticed this first thing this morning, just hadn't had time to post anything because I have been busy. I am really curious if we are going to have a repeat week like we did 2 weeks ago where they hold us here until Thursday or Friday.
I really don't like this, because we would likely be up 2 or 3% if not for this artificial holding.
I really don't like this, because we would likely be up 2 or 3% if not for this artificial holding.
More likely it just ran out of steam. There are plenty of reasons for people to be selling TSLA, and it should not necessarily be outperforming the market in general. Blaming adverse market movement on the guy behind the scenes leads to a lot of irrational and emotional analysis. The contrarian investors forum is full of that and was definitely a factor in those people holding GTAT until bankruptcy, as well as some of their China solar holdings that are also going down the toilet.
This forum in general seems to do well at taking "unlucky" movements of the price in stride.
Honestly, and I've been watching nearly every 2 minute tick all day, I have seen a lot more holding up than keeping down as far as fights over particular prices and bid/ask being hit.
This forum in general seems to do well at taking "unlucky" movements of the price in stride.
Honestly, and I've been watching nearly every 2 minute tick all day, I have seen a lot more holding up than keeping down as far as fights over particular prices and bid/ask being hit.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Congratulations! Also today your crystall ball worked fine.
If you guys made money because of it, I am happy. Italy is treating me well.
I don't think it was. I just saw that. I find it pretty strange. Deliveries are being pulled forward due to people converting to AWD. Some folks obviously delayed into next year. Many people and many new orders are for the P85D which we will see deliveries of in December. There is zero reason to expect them to miss Q4 and additionally gross margin will be much higher as well as net margin. Q4 is the quarter I am looking forward to.
Chickenlittle
Banned
palmer_md
Member
Should be good for the stock since, when they do meet their guidance, they will at the same time beat the analyst estimates which are lowered due to false assumptions. That should provide a bump to the stock at the time of the earnings report for q4.
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