Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[austinEV]

Here are some interesting figures about expected price moves for certain stocks according to options data. Meaning companies which are about to realease their ER, including TSLA.
This is an extract and I had to modify the original sheet to be more readable here.

Dumb question, but these are positive moves and not just magnitudes?

 

[ongba]

Dumb question, but these are positive moves and not just magnitudes?

I believe it is an estimated percentage move in either direction.

 

[FluxCap]

Here's what's going on in the market today (Saudi oil price war and Priceline.com implosion). So TSLA has taken a hit, unrelated to Tesla.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I believe it is an estimated percentage move in either direction.

exactly. estimated (possible) moves calculated using implied volatility.

 

[Causalien]

Here are some interesting figures about expected price moves for certain stocks according to options data. Meaning companies which are about to realease their ER, including TSLA.
This is an extract and I had to modify the original sheet to be more readable here.

Hmm straddle != implied 1 day. So the volatility is skewed to either call or put. Any dara on which side?

 

[sub]

volatility is also historically less than implied, that doesn't mean it will be this time around however! It's probably the only true edge in trading options.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analysts' Q3 ER Focus

here's a summary of both estimates and analysts' expectation for Q3.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

PREVIEW Tesla 3Q: Focus on Production, Model X Timing
2014-11-04 20:28:06.72 GMT


By Libby Sallaberry McGowan
Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla 3Q earnings focus will be on
production and any outlook for 2015 production and deliveries,
as well as timing for Model X launch, analysts say.

ESTIMATES:
* 3Q adj. EPS break-even (range 15c loss to 10c EPS)
* 3Q rev. $884m (range $739m-$974m)
* 3Q deliveries (avg of 6) 7,870 vs TSLA guidance 7,800
* NOTE: CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter Sept. sales hit
record high, rose 65% y/y in N. America
* NOTE: CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter Sept. sales hit
record high, rose 65% y/y in N. America</li></ul>
* July 31, TSLA forecast 4Q production slight more than 1k
units/week; said on track for >35k deliveries in 2014
* NOTE: 2Q Model S deliveries 7,579; 1Q deliveries 6,457
* NOTE: 2Q Model S deliveries 7,579; 1Q deliveries 6,457</li></ul>

ANALYSTS:
* Barclays: Deliveries likely came in at 8,800 units in 3Q,
well above ests. (assuming 2.2k Asia deliveries and Musk
tweet about Sept. deliveries well ahead of est., though may
have been catch-up post shutdown in Aug.), implying upside
to EPS; 3Q beat makes yr guidance achievable
* Stifel: TSLA may fall short of 35k delivery target in 2014,
mostly due to line changeover related to Model X, increased
international deliveries; focus on timing of progression up
to 1k units/week production
* Baird: 3Q production may be slightly lower than expected;
sees strong ending weekly run-rate setting up “solid” 4Q
* Deutsche Bank: Looking for update on Model X timing; sees
fall 2015 vs spring/summer, potential negative
* Goldman: Distribution challenges in China, cadence of
production ramp to >1k vehicles/week indicates there is
downside to 35k delivery guidance for 2014; sees co.
achieving annual deliveries “just shy” of that guidance
* Dougherty: Final assembly shutdown may cause TSLA to miss 3Q
production target of 9k, though “sets path” for gross
margin expansion, oper. leverage in 2015
* Morgan Stanley: Looking for commentary from mgmt suggesting
possible delay in Model X launch; expects update on plant
reconfiguration
* Pacific Crest: “Cautiously optimistic” into 3Q, N-T
production upside unlikely w/ high expectations

DATA:
* TSLA has 13 buys, 8 holds, 3 sells; avg PT $278
* TSLA up 58% YTD; down 18% vs Sept. 4 record high

TIMING:
* Reports tomorrow post-mkt, last 2 times 4:11, 4:14pm; call
5:30pm http://bit.ly/1AaWTtB

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

 

[FANGO]

Model S gets 5 stars in Euro NCAP: Model S Achieves Euro NCAP 5-Star Safety Rating | Blog | Tesla Motors

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Model S gets 5 stars in Euro NCAP: Model S Achieves Euro NCAP 5-Star Safety Rating | Blog | Tesla Motors

Thanks, Fango !

these guys are simply incredible

This quarter, we started implementing the Model S active safety system in conjunction with the introduction of new Autopilot hardware, consisting of 12 ultrasonic sensors that sense up to 16 feet around the car, a forward-looking camera, a forward radar, and a digitally controlled, high-precision electric brake boost. We specifically selected this hardwareto accommodate the progressive introduction of new safety features via software updates over the course of the next several months.

[...] we will go much further with active safety systems. Features coming soon include Forward and Side Collision Warning and Avoidance, Blind Spot Warning, and Automatic Emergency Braking.

 

[chickensevil]

here's a summary of both estimates and analysts' expectation for Q3.

Based on this most seem to be thinking for a delivery miss and strongly likely a miss on hitting 35k for the year. So if they can get that we should get a positive hut after hours.

 

[AlMc]

Based on this most seem to be thinking for a delivery miss and strongly likely a miss on hitting 35k for the year. So if they can get that we should get a positive hut after hours.

To get that result we will need positive guidance by EM supported by assertion of a current run rate of 1,200+/week. I believe this is possible.

 

[jhm]

Model S gets 5 stars in Euro NCAP: Model S Achieves Euro NCAP 5-Star Safety Rating | Blog | Tesla Motors

What? Isn't it a 5,3-star rating?

 

[eepic]

What? Isn't it a 5,3-star rating?

Looks like the 5 star was despite a miscalibration of the airbag in the test vehicle.

Adult Occupant 82%
Child Occupant 77%
Pedestrian 66%
Safety Assist 71%

Tesla Model S | Euro NCAP - For safer cars crash test safety rating

 

[vgrinshpun]

To get that result we will need positive guidance by EM supported by assertion of a current run rate of 1,200+/week. I believe this is possible.

I think that they were running average of 1000 cars/ week in October, so current rate of 1100 cars/week will do it as well, assuming they linearly ramp to 1200 cars/week by the end of the year.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Based on this most seem to be thinking for a delivery miss and strongly likely a miss on hitting 35k for the year. So if they can get that we should get a positive hut after hours.

and not few of them will be precisely watching some news about the Model X launch. Could be a big catalyst. 35k miss by GS doesn't suprise me but rather Stifel's assumption. At the end, all these kind-of pessimistic expectations prior ER could be a good move.
Gentlemen, fingers crossed after today's market close!!

EDIT---

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

€ 194.600

5,04 2,66%

05.11 14:03

 

[chickensevil]

To get that result we will need positive guidance by EM supported by assertion of a current run rate of 1,200+/week. I believe this is possible.

I don't think we need that high of a run rate as long as they come inline with guidance of 7800 and 9000. I think it will be needed only if they post a slight miss (mainly a miss on production of 9k would be all that would worry me about needing a higher run rate).

That being said, I think from everything I have been following about the company they should have enough room and supply to push up to around 1200 right now. I think they could realistically go to 1500 with no immediate problems and then they will need the further upgrades that are planned in order to push higher.

 

[Citizen-T]

Market expectations are low. Elon's confidence is high (as told by his recent tweet re: WW deliveries). The mainstream media has not picked up on ZEV credit sales at all. Lots of P85D demand will boost margins in Q4. Stock is at the lower end of its trading range.

I think this is shaping up to be a good ER. The conditions are right. Now, we just need Tesla to deliver some good news.

 

[eepic]

In other news, this morning Arndt Ellinghorst of Evercore ISI initiated coverage with a buy rating $320 PT.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Evercore ISI - "buy" w/ PT $320

In other news, this morning Arndt Ellinghorst of Evercore ISI initiated coverage with a buy rating $320 PT.

thanks, eepic. and here we go!

 

[mejojo]

I have some cash to put to work....what would be the strongest play given today's drop, assuming overall confidence.