chickensevil
Active Member
Should pop over to the social chat to see conversation happening regarding exactly that.
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Should pop over to the social chat to see conversation happening regarding exactly that.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
I agree with this 100%. This is the rationale behind me actually buying calls to play earnings for once. I usually wait til after earnings, but this time I think expectations are way low and out of sync with reality.
Indeed, and if Elon decides to rip into the flood of doom and gloom "reporting" re demand we're seeing crescendo this week (how many "here are the hoops (we fabricate) Tesla must jump through to not crash" articles have we seen the past two days?), it will be a fun afternoon. No guarantees, but Elon could have some quite potent words either in the shareholder newsletter or on the call.
I'm fairly long right now, and I would love to buy at these prices, but if I do, I would take a bigger hit then I'm okay with if we tank tomorrow. There is a broader Head-and-shoulders pattern appearing which would bring the stock down to the $170s if we have anything other than good news tonight. That's a long way down from here, and I'm not as confident as others this quarter.
What are the thoughts on Tesla beating the whisper number?
TSLA: Whisper Number: How Will Tesla Investors React To Earnings? Whisper Number: How Will Tesla Investors React To Earnings?
TSLA: Whisper Number: How Will Tesla Investors React To Earnings? Whisper Number: How Will Tesla Investors React To Earnings?
What percentage move are we expecting based on options prices? I think we're at the low range and expectations are low so a beat should be really positive. But on the other hand, a miss could lead to us breaking the 200 day and that wouldn't be good at all.
I'm also wondering why Tesla would release the 5 stars news today. Is that supposed to be good news to balance out the bad news from earnings (even though stock didn't react to it at all it seems)? I'm most likely reading into it too much
I'm also wondering why Tesla would release the 5 stars news today. Is that supposed to be good news to balance out the bad news from earnings (even though stock didn't react to it at all it seems)? I'm most likely reading into it too much
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
What percentage move are we expecting based on options prices? I think we're at the low range and expectations are low so a beat should be really positive. But on the other hand, a miss could lead to us breaking the 200 day and that wouldn't be good at all.
I'm also wondering why Tesla would release the 5 stars news today. Is that supposed to be good news to balance out the bad news from earnings (even though stock didn't react to it at all it seems)? I'm most likely reading into it too much
It was Euro NCAP who released it today I believe. Tesla likely did not get to choose the date. And Euro NCAP probably don't care about when quarterly reports are released. Just coincidence.
chickensevil
Active Member
Normally I would agree with you, except for people are already factoring in a miss on Q3. The price we are at now is assuming a loss on EPS and setting up for a "minor" production miss for Q3 and a "minor" delivery miss for Q4 (as in not hitting the 35,000 number). If Tesla comes out kicking IN LINE with previous guidance we already have a win. What do you think at this point is the chance that they are BELOW these current levels of expectations? You think they will post a -.05 EPS? You think they will miss Production numbers for Q4 to not be able to make 35k deliveries on the order of a couple thousand car miss? I strongly believe we would have to post at least a -.05 EPS (Non-GAAP) and project a delivery of 33k to see a serious drop in price tomorrow. The chances of this actually happening based on the data we have at hand, 1% (and I think even that is being generous).
.03 would be in line with guidance. I would expect a .03 or better for sure at this point.
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But I will say that it is icing on the already super sweet cake for them to be able to talk about it tonight on their report!
(assuming that the cake is already going to be sweet... if it is sour... well, then, maybe it makes the cake more bearable? But I would like to think at this point it is going to be a very sweet cake.... mhmmmmmm cake... :love: Wa? what were we talking about again?)
Normally I would agree with you, except for people are already factoring in a miss on Q3. The price we are at now is assuming a loss on EPS and setting up for a "minor" production miss for Q3 and a "minor" delivery miss for Q4 (as in not hitting the 35,000 number). If Tesla comes out kicking IN LINE with previous guidance we already have a win. What do you think at this point is the chance that they are BELOW these current levels of expectations? You think they will post a -.05 EPS? You think they will miss Production numbers for Q4 to not be able to make 35k deliveries on the order of a couple thousand car miss? I strongly believe we would have to post at least a -.05 EPS (Non-GAAP) and project a delivery of 33k to see a serious drop in price tomorrow. The chances of this actually happening based on the data we have at hand, 1% (and I think even that is being generous).
.03 would be in line with guidance. I would expect a .03 or better for sure at this point.
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But I will say that it is icing on the already super sweet cake for them to be able to talk about it tonight on their report!
The cake is a lie!
I really like the fact all the analysts are setting a nice low bar for Tesla to meet. Here's a forbes article outlining Adam Jonas's pre-earnings note
Could The Upcoming Model X And Overseas Pipeline Temper Tesla's Guidance? - Forbes
jhm
Well-Known Member
Bears are attacking both TSLA and SCTY right now. I thoroughly expect them to pon the price down AH just as reports are released. They want price movements to overshadow the content of reports. If you've got cash, you may want to set a limit order to catch this fast action.
BBG: TSLA record deliveries in Q3?
guys, a fresh article on Bloomberg !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ecord-deliveries-on-pace-to-sales-target.html
guys, a fresh article on Bloomberg !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ecord-deliveries-on-pace-to-sales-target.html
the title, while accurate, is a bit misleading. While 7800+ deliveries is the most ever delivered it is not a major beat of guidance. I know I have been 'negative' about this ER. I hope TM did deliver 10-15% more than guidance and has a big EPS beat but I am not confident that it has. I am confident that they will beat 35K this year and revenue beat Q4 numbers we are seeing out there.
good luck everyone! peace
InTheShadows
Active Member
Does anyone remember around what time we get to see the report? IIRC it's supposed to be released at 4:05, but we don't usually see it until about 4:15, is that correct?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I thought someone somewhere actually recorded the release time of the last two. Q1 was 4:11 and Q2 was 4:14.
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