Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[porc]

For example gold in relation to oil over time.

Link: Gold to Oil Ratio Historical Chart | MacroTrends

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I wouldn't do it if the oil was free. Now a solar array to recharge it is a different story.

Well said.

- - - Updated - - -

Legendary Oil Trader Says $50 Oil is Next and the Saudis are Letting it Happen | Tumblr Blog - Yahoo Finance

IMO it's about time for a new Carbon Tax.

 

[Robert.Boston]

how about factoring in realistic inflation rates for your neat chart? :wink:

I've deflated this using the US GDP implicit deflator. My data series for WTI only goes back to '86, sadly.

Seems to me that oil is still pretty pricy, compared to historical values.

 

[mejojo]

Total Nasdaq and Dow carnage continues. Tough to see how this reverses tomorrow unless OPEC signals a floor for oil and/or heartening currency news comes out of Eurozone / Asia.

What is depressing is waking up every morning with the cheery morning news people crowing about how low gas prices are and how wonderful it is.

No mention at all of the oil price attack or any perspective other than "Hey, the gas is cheaper than it's been for 4 years. Yayyy!"

 

[porc]

Government inflation statistics have throughout time never been a good measurement of real world inflation. Its like the fox guarding the hen house.

 

[SteveG3]

You have just described every single stock price in the market. Trading stocks is predicting future whims of future investors from a time horizon of a few nanoseconds from now to a few years, and betting you know more than someone else. That's all it is, and all it ever will be.

Flux, you know the Warren Buffett quote (actually from his mentor Benjamin Graham):

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

I think you've described trading stocks as trying to "figure out" the voting machine... no doubt, plenty of people try to do this, maybe the majority of individual investors. What I was trying to describe yesterday was investing based on the fact that the weighing machine will have its say (underlying value). Of course, both "machines" are really always at play at the same time all the time, it's just that sometimes the sum of both of their impacts comes to the weighing machine number. That's a number (at least for some stocks) you've got a chance to call well if you work hard to model your own weighing machine.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Flux, you know the Warren Buffett quote (actually from his mentor Benjamin Graham):

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

I think you've described trading stocks as trying to "figure out" the voting machine... no doubt, plenty of people try to do this, maybe the majority of individual investors. What I was trying to describe yesterday was investing based on the fact that the voting machine will have its say (underlying value). Of course, both "machines" are really always at play at the same time all the time, it's just that sometimes the sum of both of their impacts comes to the weighing machine number. That's a number (at least for some stocks) you've got a chance to call well if you work hard to model your own weighing machine.

I'm confused, unless you meant to write "the weighing" instead of the bolded part (or, equally possible, I don't understand the quote.)

 

[SteveG3]

I'm confused, unless you meant to write "the weighing" instead of the bolded part (or, equally possible, I don't understand the quote.)

thanks Familial, that's exactly right... earlier post corrected. spent way too much time today responding to Fudsters on some articles... fries my brain a bit.

 

[jhm]

What is depressing is waking up every morning with the cheery morning news people crowing about how low gas prices are and how wonderful it is.

No mention at all of the oil price attack or any perspective other than "Hey, the gas is cheaper than it's been for 4 years. Yayyy!"

I like to keep in mind that the whole supply chain leading to the Model S is getting cheaper thanks to lower oil prices. If this keeps up Tesla will have a lower cost of goods.

Anyone have their fingers on those studies showing how much fuel/energy goes into making an EV. While those were often used to show that alot carbon is embedded in an EV and question environmental credentials, they might also be used to estimate coat sensitivities to the price of oil. It would be nice to know that a $10 reduction in the price of oil leads to $5 reduction in the cost of 1 kWh of batteries. Or maybe another angle would be just to look at the commodity value per kWh. Wasn't it about $70 awhile back? What is it now? If the Gigafactory is able to deliver a 30% price reduction at $100 oil, what would it be at $50 oil? Anybody want to take a crack at this?

 

[jhm]

Either demand for Teslas up 153% or analysts will have to recognize that Tesla is supply constrained.
IHS Automotive Analyst Says 153% Increase In Tesla Registrations For October Due To Limited Supply, Delay In Registering Vehicles - Yahoo Finance

 

[SteveG3]

Either demand for Teslas up 153% or analysts will have to recognize that Tesla is supply constrained.
IHS Automotive Analyst Says 153% Increase In Tesla Registrations For October Due To Limited Supply, Delay In Registering Vehicles - Yahoo Finance

good point... of course as far as the media, Cory Johnson, WSJ, Barrons, etc fabricate their own third option (and, of course, John Lovallo likes to do like his pals in the media)

 

[MikeC]

Either demand for Teslas up 153% or analysts will have to recognize that Tesla is supply constrained.
IHS Automotive Analyst Says 153% Increase In Tesla Registrations For October Due To Limited Supply, Delay In Registering Vehicles - Yahoo Finance

Funny how when these stats are misleading to the bullish side, everyone comes out of the woodwork to clear up any misleading numbers. In this case analysts for IHS Automotive and cars.com. Wait - how does an individual company like cars.com get their own analyst? I thought analysts covered whole sectors.

 

[BlueTan85]

FWIW, cars.com is owned by Gannett media empire...

 

[TNEVol]

P85D today at Nashville showroom. I suspect that if we are seeing it in the boonies there is a big surge

 

[mitch672]

this link is in the yahoo news ticker, some are theorizing TSLA could see $185, or possibly $165, ouch.
Why Tesla's electric slide has just started | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance

 

[anticitizen13.7]

this link is in the yahoo news ticker, some are theorizing TSLA could see $185, or possibly $165, ouch.

When people start publishing sky high expectations, that's a sign of a local peak IMO. Doom and gloom is similar, but generally indicates a valley.

 

[dha]

It looks like Tesla isn't listed on the press conference schedule for this year's Detroit Auto Show:

Official NAIAS Press Conference Schedule Released -- DETROIT, Dec. 10, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

 

[AlMc]

It looks like Tesla isn't listed on the press conference schedule for this year's Detroit Auto Show:

Official NAIAS Press Conference Schedule Released -- DETROIT, Dec. 10, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

TM will definitely be there. I confirmed this with 'Fremont' and they are on the map: Next to Bentley and across from Audi.

 

[dha]

TM will definitely be there. I confirmed this with 'Fremont' and they are on the map: Next to Bentley and across from Audi.

Is it possible that they'll have a booth but will not be giving a press conference?

Also, where are you seeing the map? The NAIAS site is showing the 2015 map as unavailable: North American International Auto Show - MediaRoom - 2015 NAIAS Floor Plan They were next to Bentley and across from Audi at the 2014 show: http://www.naias.com/media/23108/2014-floorplans-media-85-x-11.pdf

 

[dmunjal]

How much is the Fed meeting next week causing this risk off situation? They are supposed to remove the "considerable time" language from the statement.