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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Gerardf
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Nice little jump up.
Considering what was posted in the tracking shorts thread : Tracking short interest - Page 29
At what level should these shorts start to get nervous ?
Considering what was posted in the tracking shorts thread : Tracking short interest - Page 29
At what level should these shorts start to get nervous ?
This is an interesting article, just released at 10am, which may account for some of the spike. It quotes Tesla directly on the backlog issue:
I view this as good and important news, and it may account for some of the run-up in TSLA this morning. Also, continued chatter about the potential Apple buy-out can't hurt, especially because neither company has seen fit to comment.
We have a long way to go before shorts start getting nervous. We have some serious resistance around the $230ish area, if we clear that, then say hello to $300 
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That was out yesterday on my newsfeed. It seems that the MS note is making rounds, the spike happened as soon as I got an alert for the MS note.
For every uptick, there are some 'weak' shorts who jump in, but there are also other investors who see the higher price as a further shorting opportunity (just as longs view down-ticks as buying opportunities).
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
gap closed. Closed straddle. Not going to be greedy in my short term trade. Exected all according to prediction. Very happy.
Only have a June call verticle left for. modelX event. Will be looking for entrance for 2017 LEAPs
There are so many moving parts in the manufacturing process, let alone the demand side of the equation, that forecasting 2017-18-19-20 is In the realm of Fantasia. We can barely get this quarter accurately.
To give validity to Jonas guesses and actually invest on them seems absurd.
I am following Elon's road map, and am basing valuation on 2016 deliveries of 100,000 cars .
Thereafter I will calibrate my estimates and valuation.
To give validity to Jonas guesses and actually invest on them seems absurd.
I am following Elon's road map, and am basing valuation on 2016 deliveries of 100,000 cars .
Thereafter I will calibrate my estimates and valuation.
Same, closed a poorly-chosen strike position for a measly 100% gain. Jonas note did the trick. Looking towards crude oil movement now and waiting on sidelines a bit myself. I fully expect a few more positive zingers from Elon this quarter, but can't predict timing yet.
chickensevil
Active Member
Ok cool, 100k cars in 2016 at 106k ASP with a 28% GM (although I think they said they could still hit 30%, lets just work with a more reasonable number) is 10.6B in revenue and 2.97B in GP. @ 125.4M shares if we trade at a very conservative 5x revenue that is a 53B market cap or 422.65$ per share for 2016, so tell me again how a 1yr PT of 280$ isn't conservative?
Edit: I have said it before about the PT of all the analysts are pretty easy to fit with just 2016 numbers, but thought I would repost the very simple math here again so it could be referenced. You don't need to go out to 2017+ or some crazy 2025 millions of cars to sort out that the current price is way undervalued if you simply think they will have a successful next 2 years.
The multiples argument is the hard part with the PT. You can use revenues, gross profits, earnings per share and come up with a set of pretty wide price targets. As long as there is substantial growth - i.e., by end of 2016 looking at 2018+ I agree that revenues and gross profits are probably more in line with what the market typically values growth companies on, but at some point these valuations compress back into EPS multiples. I think this argument, and cash burn vs. financing needs, are the two pieces that set the bull vs. bear on TSLA.
As long as there is top line revenue growth at good GM and no need for substantial financing I think the analyst price targets are reasonable. However a couple of quarters of misses on top line coupled with substantial cash burn will put substantial pressure on the justification to continue to use revenue multiple as a comp. Q1 targets are not set particularly high, but could be trouble with the anticipated cash burn if they are not met.
Agree with your viewS, I was figuring $40 billion market cap and discounting at 10% for one year.
I am not contesting the Jonas price target, my estimates are in the $280 and above area without model 3 included. Once we are within reach of that objective we can recalibrate further.
i am figuring 100,000 cars sold at $100,000 average per car, that is $10 billion, and guessing 10% net profit margin for $1 billion profit at a 40 p/e for a fast growing company with a substantial competitive advantage with a massive addressable market. 40 billion divided by 125 million gets me to $320 per share in the year 2016.
I am not contesting the Jonas price target, my estimates are in the $280 and above area without model 3 included. Once we are within reach of that objective we can recalibrate further.
i am figuring 100,000 cars sold at $100,000 average per car, that is $10 billion, and guessing 10% net profit margin for $1 billion profit at a 40 p/e for a fast growing company with a substantial competitive advantage with a massive addressable market. 40 billion divided by 125 million gets me to $320 per share in the year 2016.
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chickensevil
Active Member
The problem is that I am not really expecting much by way of net profit (even from Non-GAAP) until Model 3 hits since they are going to be sinking so much cash into opex and capex that they are likely to float relatively flat. We will have some surprise quarters of high profit and some surprise quarters of low to negative profit but for the year I wouldn't be surprise to see them remain well under .5 - 1$ EPS even non-GAAP until after Model 3 hits. And if they are going to stay as ambitious on their growth beyond that, it may be that we still don't see much profits for a while. Investor return isn't likely until into the 2020s, but I am perfectly OK with that.
SOMEBODY's accumulating today. Good, steady, not too-aggressive buying.
Hmm.
You don't suppose it could be that chappie - aah....whatzizname - who just dumped 41mm shares of XOM, and sold off his COP to boot? Wouldn't that be something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ol' Warren Buffett
Said "Aw just stuff it!
Oil is now so passé."
That sage Berkshire owl
Threw in the towel
And bought Tesla. Lots of it. Today.
Hmm.
You don't suppose it could be that chappie - aah....whatzizname - who just dumped 41mm shares of XOM, and sold off his COP to boot? Wouldn't that be something!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ol' Warren Buffett
Said "Aw just stuff it!
Oil is now so passé."
That sage Berkshire owl
Threw in the towel
And bought Tesla. Lots of it. Today.
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chickensevil
Active Member
mejojo
Active Member
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