Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johan]

I have done a lot of proprietary work on the TSLA call/put ratio inverse ELON-pattern Head-Shoulders-Knees-and-Toes Limerick indicator (TM pending) and when I have more data I'll share my analyzis.

 

[Drax7]

Without the heavy cap spending their profitability would approach 10% I had figured a while back
as economies of scale kicked in. Though Elon wants to rev this up much higher than 100,000 .

 

[32no]

I like the joking. I am waiting for the people who are deadly serious about how poems on TMC definitely, directly cause the stock price to trade lower.

QUICK! Get one of the Seeking Alpha perma-bears to write an article about the poem and how Tesla is doomed!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): The Worst Company On Earth
ETF Daily News - Feb 18, 2015

 

[mejojo]

Wow. That guy is a HUGE tool.

 

[imherkimer]

Wow. That guy is a HUGE tool.

LOL! Guy published this and the stock rose about 3.5%. Fun part is the comments. He really takes it on the chin!

 

[jhm]

Without the heavy cap spending their profitability would approach 10% I had figured a while back
as economies of scale kicked in. Though Elon wants to rev this up much higher than 100,000 .

I think this is right. Cash burn is the rocket fuel you burn to get into orbit. All systems go.

 

[Cattledog]

I think this is right. Cash burn is the rocket fuel you burn to get into orbit. All systems go.

Excellent SpaceX analogy. Just like a rocket burns more fuel near earth to overcome gravity, so does a company burn cash in growth mode to launch, especially with large capEx. Get to $300, do one more secondary to load up for the next expansion (Gigfactory 2 and overseas auto factory), it'll be like dropping the first stage and firing the second stage. Blast off and buckle up.

 

[ggies07]

Excellent SpaceX analogy. Just like a rocket burns more fuel near earth to overcome gravity, so does a company burn cash in growth mode to launch, especially with large capEx. Get to $300, do one more secondary to load up for the next expansion (Gigfactory 2 and overseas auto factory), it'll be like dropping the first stage and firing the second stage. Blast off and buckle up.

 

[sundaymorning]

These types of movements makes me wonder how many investors are kicking themselves in waiting for Tesla to dip below $200? How many buyers are hoping for a pullback to $205s now...

 

[Papafox]

These types of movements makes me wonder how many investors are kicking themselves in waiting for Tesla to dip below $200? How many buyers are hoping for a pullback to $205s now...

Sundaymorning, you've touched upon one of the biggest tug-of-wars on this forum. Do you hold buying money for the next pullback or maybe even closer to the third quarter of this year, or do you go in now? Some on this forum recognize that the second half of 2015 will likely provide more stimulus for higher prices, but others, such as myself, have already gone "all in" with the expectation that this rocket is going to Mars and we don't want to be left behind. Advocates of the "wait for the better time" approach expect less risk of a black swan event if they invest closer to the suspected date when the stock will go ballistic. In the meantime, they can invest some funds elsewhere. Others, such as myself (and likely yourself, too) recognize that the market is unpredictable, and if there's money to be made later in the year some analyst will point this out and the rise can begin earlier than expected. Adam Jonas has just done so. Let's see how much rise we can get from this event.

 

[Muskol]

Now that's some interesting premarket activity, can't say I've ever seen it like this.

 

[Causalien]

Buy bot buying with margin money it doesn't have.

 

[Muskol]

It's interesting to see it so clearly without the noise of other random trades.

 

[AlMc]

Sundaymorning, you've touched upon one of the biggest tug-of-wars on this forum. Do you hold buying money for the next pullback or maybe even closer to the third quarter of this year, or do you go in now? Some on this forum recognize that the second half of 2015 will likely provide more stimulus for higher prices, but others, such as myself, have already gone "all in" with the expectation that this rocket is going to Mars and we don't want to be left behind. Advocates of the "wait for the better time" approach expect less risk of a black swan event if they invest closer to the suspected date when the stock will go ballistic. In the meantime, they can invest some funds elsewhere. Others, such as myself (and likely yourself, too) recognize that the market is unpredictable, and if there's money to be made later in the year some analyst will point this out and the rise can begin earlier than expected. Adam Jonas has just done so. Let's see how much rise we can get from this event.

Agreed. Hind sight is 20:20. If you had parked some of your money that had been in TSLA in APPL LEAPS when apple was under $100 about 6 months ago your LEAPS would have more than doubled while your TSLA Leaps would have been 'in the red'. I know this from first hand experience. So, everyone has to measure the risk/opportunity costs of investing in TSLA versus other stocks, bonds, cash, etc..

If you believe TSLA will be $300 in one year and over $1,000 in 10 years does it matter if you missed buying at $190 or wait till $230 for your LONG term investment? The second car on the TM rocket train may get you to your destination a little slower than being in the first seat. But, it will still be a great ride.

 

[CHGolferJim]

These back of envelope share price scenarios can get one excited!

It is sobering though to see the USA Today article citing price/sales multiples data of major auto companies at 1 or less vs. TSLA at 8. Without the legacy issues, TSLA likely to exceed that level well past X and 3 introductions, and maybe as long as they have major categories like trucks to enter. Seems likely that P/S will eventually trend towards the 3-5 level where AAPL resides at 3.75.

 

[Drax7]

The price seems in a bottoming process, recent bearish info no longer breaks the price down, such as the earning release.

We Need genuinely bullish information, such as demand from China is improving.
The production side is on track, or will be on track , now the assertion that China demand
is there is important for 1000,000 sales target in 2016. Or that model x is on target or whatever
it may be, but real data not an analyst prediction.

 

[jhm]

Sundaymorning, you've touched upon one of the biggest tug-of-wars on this forum. Do you hold buying money for the next pullback or maybe even closer to the third quarter of this year, or do you go in now? Some on this forum recognize that the second half of 2015 will likely provide more stimulus for higher prices, but others, such as myself, have already gone "all in" with the expectation that this rocket is going to Mars and we don't want to be left behind. Advocates of the "wait for the better time" approach expect less risk of a black swan event if they invest closer to the suspected date when the stock will go ballistic. In the meantime, they can invest some funds elsewhere. Others, such as myself (and likely yourself, too) recognize that the market is unpredictable, and if there's money to be made later in the year some analyst will point this out and the rise can begin earlier than expected. Adam Jonas has just done so. Let's see how much rise we can get from this event.

I think my recent post may lend some insight into this.
Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 240
This approach is based on calibrating a long-term scenario to recent market prices so as to obtain implied discount rates, an approach that is analogous to implied volatilities in option pricing. So what we see is that the current price corresponds to a rather high implied discount 35%. The basic trading strategy is to buy when the implied discount is historically high and sell when the implied discount is historically low.

 

[chickensevil]

The price seems in a bottoming process, recent bearish info no longer breaks the price down, such as the earning release.

We Need genuinely bullish information, such as demand from China is improving.
The production side is on track, or will be on track , now the assertion that China demand
is there is important for 1000,000 sales target in 2016. Or that model x is on target or whatever
it may be, but real data not an analyst prediction.

I do agree that real positive news is what will be needed to make a major movement upward, but I would still contest that we "need" China to hit 100k. Keep in mind that a projected half of that 100k is to come from Model X (at least from the demand side... Model X should trend with just as much demand as the Model S) and with Model S global demand (with or without China) trending above 50k then I really don't see any issues hitting 100k a year without China.

Where China will matter is
1: Getting the full possible demand value out of the Model S and Model X (at some point the rest of the world will peak, so to keep rising China will be needed... it is unclear what that number/level is... but it is certainly higher than 50k Model S a year)
2: Achieving an amazing number of Model 3 demand. It is too early at this point, again, to determine at what point global demand (minus China) will peak and therefore hitting a higher number China will be needed... 100k? 300k? 500k? But at some point, To breach that peak China will play a big role.

What I am driving at here is: None of this is likely to impact short term ability of Tesla to meet targets. The only reason that sorting China out now is an important endeavor is because it takes years to properly establish your brand. So waiting to tackle China until it is actually needed would be about 2 or 3 years too late. Since we don't really know when China will become an important factor, it is important to work toward fixing the problem Today. (And the same goes for Japan and Germany and making sure we are getting the maximum amount of demand... I don't think either country is important to the Tesla picture today... or even this year... but it will be important at some point in the future.)

 

[Drax7]

Elon mentioned he can reach his sales target for 2015 even with no Chinese deliveries this year.
100,000 sales next year may be another matter, we shall see, though the assertion that sales in China are
doing well gives us certainty. Certainty implies less risk. Uncertainty implies price concession.