Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[aznt1217]

Up 10% from today is underperforming? If I could count on >10% from a portfolio I'd be retired...and also everyone would be throwing money at me to manage. Strange definition of underperforming.

Aside from that, the whole report is about short term performance based on the debate of whether or not there is demand and the Model X being dilutive.

Once again... How is demand still being questioned. Also Model X won't be dilutive for Tesla as a whole because they are supply constrained. Even if they made 0 model S and focused on only the X, there's enough orders to fill...

I'll give them execution risk but they are tardy for the party on that one.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Thanks for pleasant welcome !

Some more positive updates for Norway. Obviously Tesla Norway has been working extra hours: Monday registered 219 new Model S (record in one day), bringing March total as of the 23 rd up to 693! And many more to come the last days of March.

Welcome Car4CivilizedAge!
And thanks for your delivery update in Norway.

During the last couple of days I got more and more confident that we'll see a nice delivery bump in Norway and other markets around the globe this March (and thus this quarter).

Here is my interpretation on what's currently happening, and Norway serves as a very good example in this context.
Just take the number of new vehicle registrations per day in Norway from Monday (219 new registrations).
This is a new record number for deliveries per day.
As we all know, vehicles are shipped to Europe in batches and thus delivery numbers depend on the boats actually arriving in Europe.
My assumption:
If there were no more vehicles left for delivery before end of this quarter, there would not be any need for a rush to deliver a record number of vehicles on a single day (Monday). It would not make any sense to deliver a record number of vehicles one day and zero vehicles the next day.
My conclusion:
There are either enough vehicles waiting for their delivery in Norway to roughly sustain this delivery rate of Monday during the next 6 days (deliveries on Saturday) till the end of this quarter, or there are even more vehicles waiting for their owners in Norway.
By simply conservative linear extrapolation with 200 new registrations / day I get:
About 1200 additional registrations till end of this quarter.
With about 500 vehicles already deliverd in Norway this quarter I get an estimate of 1700 deliveries in Norway in Q1.

To my opinion this is just the visible consequence of the west port strike issues being resolved some weeks ago.

I expect similar action in other markets that depend on transport via boat / ferry during the next days.
During the west coast port issues Tesla shipped some vehicles from the east coast ports.
It took some time (and vehicles) to fill the pipeline with vehicles to the east coast to be transported to their overseas destination.
But at a certain point in time (port strike issues resolved), there are still vehicles delivered via the east ports and an additional amount of vehicles is delivered via the west coast ports again!

 

[Gerasimental]

Thanks for pleasant welcome !

Some more positive updates for Norway. Obviously Tesla Norway has been working extra hours: Monday registered 219 new Model S (record in one day), bringing March total as of the 23 rd up to 693! And many more to come the last days of March.

Wow, this is fantastic news. With a delivery just arrived in Tilburg, that greatly reduces risk for Q1 ER.

ev-enthusiast, since you were talking about tradeable events, I feel like this is one of those times that apparently used to be more common, where the knowledge and information gathered in this forum can give us an edge over the market. These are strong indicators for Q1 performance, but the bulk of the market will only start adjusting their Q1 estimates and risk perception when they hear final March delivery numbers next week. Opportunity?

To add to that, we also have circumstantial evidence of a strong delivery push in the US form various members there who have seen stores and SC recently jam-packed with cars waiting to be delivered and with all staff working early on a saturday morning.

 

[techmaven]

By simply conservative linear extrapolation with 200 new registrations / day I get:
About 1200 additional registrations till end of this quarter.
With about 500 vehicles already deliverd in Norway this quarter I get an estimate of 1700 deliveries in Norway in Q1.

Whoa, that's not conservative. We know:

Jan: 71, Feb: 321, March: 693 so far, 1085 Q1 so far

Last year, March: 1493, Q1: 2056

Conservative would be to guess more like 1,300 to 1,400 for the quarter.

 

[AlMc]

Wow, this is fantastic news. With a delivery just arrived in Tilburg, that greatly reduces risk for Q1 ER.

ev-enthusiast, since you were talking about tradeable events, I feel like this is one of those times that apparently used to be more common, where the knowledge and information gathered in this forum can give us an edge over the market. These are strong indicators for Q1 performance, but the bulk of the market will only start adjusting their Q1 estimates and risk perception when they hear final March delivery numbers next week. Opportunity?

To add to that, we also have circumstantial evidence of a strong delivery push in the US form various members there who have seen stores and SC recently jam-packed with cars waiting to be delivered and with all staff working early on a saturday morning.

Agreed. While I will not 'bet the farm', with the downgrade driving the premarket price down and this Norway news I will be buying May 20 (I think that is the date that just opened up in options) calls. bargain hunting?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Whoa, that's not conservative. We know:

Jan: 71, Feb: 321, March: 693 so far, 1085 Q1 so far

Last year, March: 1493, Q1: 2056

Conservative would be to guess more like 1,300 to 1,400 for the quarter.

Some days ago I would have thought about Q1 delivery number in the same range as you mentioned above (maybe up to 1500 vehicles for the quarter).

The average number of deliveries per day (200 deliveries) in my conclusion is conservative (to my opinion) as far as the number is about 10% lower than the record number of deliveries on Monday.
As far as I know there are even higher numbers reported in the press for deliveries during this quarter up to date (thus 500 deliveries being conservative in my opinion).

What is your estimate for average delivery rate per day for the upcoming days till end of March (this quarter)?
Based on your asumption on 1085 deliveries in Q1 so far, what is your estimate for Q1 deliveries in Norway?
Thanks in advance!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Down $4 out of the gate. Thank you, WSJ.

 

[aznt1217]

Down $4 out of the gate. Thank you, WSJ.

Probably the CSLA "downgrade" also

 

[Lump]

Focusing on a opinion peace in the WSJ instead of price target, EPS & margin cuts by an analysts :cursing:

 

[techmaven]

Some days ago I would have thought about Q1 delivery number in the same range as you mentioned above (maybe up to 1500 vehicles for the quarter).

What is your estimate for average delivery rate per day for the upcoming days till end of March (this quarter)?
Based on your asumption on 1085 deliveries in Q1 so far, what is your estimate for Q1 deliveries in Norway?
Thanks in advance!

I've started to discuss this in the delivery estimates thread...

Suffice to say that I'm trying to figure out how reasonable TSLA will hit guidance given the information we know and to establish a range. Of course, we won't have enough information and as usual, everything hinges on U.S. deliveries. However, Norway's numbers would provide a huge buttress and have already so far.

 

[32no]

Whoa, that's not conservative. We know:

Jan: 71, Feb: 321, March: 693 so far, 1085 Q1 so far

Last year, March: 1493, Q1: 2056

Conservative would be to guess more like 1,300 to 1,400 for the quarter.

For reference, last year their was 898 Teslas registered in Norway on March 24. Source. By the end of March, it was 1493, which is about 85 cars per day. If we assume the same 85 cars per day on top of the 693 as of March 23, we get to about 1,373 cars for March, and a total of 1,765 cars in Q1 in Norway.

 

[aznt1217]

Holy cow. I just posted the Article in the other thread and more importantly just read it. He's actually worse than Cory Johnson. There's an amazing amount of ignorance out there and the stock movement + volume is absolutely reflecting that. Capitalize on this opportunity. That article makes Mao's "bearish" posts look like a speck of sand on a beach of negativity.

Hours to charge?
Subsidizing the rich?
Doesn't solve any automotive problem?
etc. etc.

These aren't new arguments. It's just a summary of all the negative arguments in one article.

 

[techmaven]

For reference, last year their was 898 Teslas registered in Norway on March 24. Source. By the end of March, it was 1493, which is about 85 cars per day. If we assume the same 85 cars per day on top of the 693 as of March 23, we get to about 1,373 cars for March, and a total of 1,765 cars in Q1 in Norway.

We don't know just how many Tesla has committed to Norway. Assuming that the report of "as many as 800" additional is correct, conservatively we're talking say, 321+750 = 1,071 for March. Then it's 1,462. If it's 800 + 559, then we're at 1,359. So maybe 1,300 for the quarter is a bit low for the low side. Let's say 1,400 on the low side. Maybe as much as, 1,800 to 2,000?

BTW, I think Mr. Anton Wahlman's TheStreet article really did the bears a disservice. I don't believe that the stock price reflects a possible meeting of last year's 1,493 March number and within striking distance of the quarterly number. Add to that the likely strength across Europe.

 

[AlMc]

Focusing on a opinion peace in the WSJ instead of price target, EPS & margin cuts by an analysts :cursing:

Yes. However, I think this provides a call buying option opportunity: ones that cover a rebound on the FUD in the WSJ article, EM visiting China and now what is seemly more evidence that we will meet Q! guidance. May 15 calls should cover this possibility.

 

[maoing]

Buying loads of shares this morning.

 

[aznt1217]

Yes. However, I think this provides a call buying option opportunity: ones that cover a rebound on the FUD in the WSJ article, EM visiting China and now what is seemly more evidence that we will meet Q! guidance. May 15 calls should cover this possibility.

He visited China?

 

[Gtoffo]

Buying loads of shares this morning.

I'm also adding to my long term/core stock. I'm already risking it with options by holding my underwater calls right now.

EDIT: interesting how negative notes/cuts always come with down days.....it looks like analysts time those releases so that the market will "validate" their forecasts. "X is down Y% after analyst Z cut his PT......." is much more probable during a down day.

 

[techmaven]

I think the stock price right now is pricing in doubt on meeting Q1 delivery numbers.

I think that's a mistake. We don't have evidence that they will meet the numbers, but the evidence from Europe isn't saying what the bears thinks it says. We have pretty good strength in Europe in January and February and the bears saw it as weakness. Do they really not bother with comps against earlier quarters? We have good evidence of strong strength in Norway deliveries. I doubt many of them have seen the updated Norway numbers. Likely the P85D is strong across a number of territories. Further, the fact that Tesla is still importing into China, even at small numbers means the inventory overhang issue isn't nearly as big as people assumed. Add to it the relatively smooth S85D launch and a west coast port strike resolution, the big reasons to be cautious going into Q1 are alleviated. Now we have higher short interest - we may have a big short squeeze coming soon. Not epic proportions like 2013, but something significant nevertheless when the bears realize that their math, as usual, is suspect.

 

[AlMc]

He visited China?

He is to visit China this week. I will see if I can find the link.

I copied this from China thread: Maoing post:

Elon musk will visit China this week. Surprise?
http://www.weibo.com/teslaofficial


新一周开始给大家一个好消息。@ElonMusk 将在本周再次来到中国。这次，你有什么想问的吗？


Translation "A good news at the beginning of the week. Elon Musk will visit China again this week. What questions do you want to ask?"

I think there must have some interesting comments from Elon about China market. This is Elon's 1st visit since last year's launch event.

 

[pGo]

Just a reminder: Elon visiting China does not guarantee a good news. Yes, I am hoping for something constructive there to show street that TM is taking extra measures in China.

Selling more puts a few weeks out in 180-185 range.