Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

Yes. However, I think this provides a call buying option opportunity: ones that cover a rebound on the FUD in the WSJ article, EM visiting China and now what is seemly more evidence that we will meet Q! guidance. May 15 calls should cover this possibility.

I'm surprised this 2nd tier Analyst had power to drop TSLA a lot today. WSJ didn't help.

Regardless, my thesis is there's NO WAY Tesla misses guidance twice in a row. No way, zero, zilch,nada.
I maintain my long term position from 2012/2013. I'll probably add some more down here

 

[Gtoffo]

I have a feeling there are a lot of potential buyers feeling fatigued by TSLA right now... bulls have been worn out by the roller coaster and are wary of pulling the trigger now.

I'm not sure of what we'll need to get back to a path of steady and healthy growth here.

A big jump would help (especially my calls) and might reignite interest in TSLA but too many doubters are feeling smug and assuming a "I told you TSLA was overvalued" attitude.

Catalysts Recap
- Q1 Results (might be positive or negative)
- Model X reveal/News
- "Autopilot" SW update release
- First Model X out of the production line
- Model X first delivery

Potential:
- Some China News from Elon's trip
- News of transition to combined Model S/X production going smoothly
- Some gigafactory news

IMHO a lot of short term potential catalyst come from Model X....as the stock is suffering from a not so great track record with model releases and the fear of problems/delays with rollout/delivery. Getting rid of those fears/doubts will change the momentum a bit I think. A smooth launch will go a long ways with pushing TSLA up.
Also, the perception of Tesla as a one trick pony that might suffer from a drop in demand will be mitigated by the launch of the new product. Not to mention the positive impact of tapping the 20k+ Model X reservations waiting to be cashed in.

 

[Drax7]

I'm surprised this 2nd tier Analyst had power to drop TSLA a lot today. WSJ didn't help.

Regardless, my thesis is there's NO WAY Tesla misses guidance twice in a row. No way, zero, zilch,nada.
I maintain my long term position from 2012/2013. I'll probably add some more down here

Thats my inclination, they cannot afford to miss already soft qtr guidance . Credit Agricol is totally irrelevant in
the securities world, though buyers are fatigued and need to see tesla back on a high growth path.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Just when TSLA has a 3-day rally over $200, the WSJ and CLSA coincidently release unfounded BS this morning, and TSLA goes back down to $195 where it was before the mini-rally over $200. Impeccable timing.

 

[techmaven]

Just when TSLA has a 3-day rally over $200, the WSJ and CLSA coincidently release unfounded BS this morning, and TSLA goes back down to $195 where it was before the mini-rally over $200. Impeccable timing.

Honestly, there was some profit taking probably. After all, a number of people bought under $190. Not much appetite right now going into $205's.

Norway numbers will surprise people... not clear when the market will wake up to it, so it's basically rinse and repeat.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

He visited China?

EM is at this years BOAO Forum for 2015 Asia (2015-03-26 till 03-29), in a dialogue with Bill Gates:

Entrepreneurship and innovation are highlights of this year’s annual conference. In the morning of March 29, Bill Gates, co-chair and trustee of Bill &Melinda Gates Foundation, will have a dialogue themed “technology and innovation for a sustainable future” with Elon Musk, CEO of Telsa Motors. Robin Li, CEO of Baidu, will serve as the moderator of the discussion.

Lots of important politicians usually attend this conference.
As part of his visit, EM is supposed to visit some stores / local headquarters.

 

[maoing]

It's a big $50 cut though. Stock tops when a string of upgrades, so stock will bottom when a serial of downgrades. How many analysts haven't given TSLA a downgrade yet? That might be one of the metrics to measure how close we are to the bottom?

I'm surprised this 2nd tier Analyst had power to drop TSLA a lot today. WSJ didn't help.

Regardless, my thesis is there's NO WAY Tesla misses guidance twice in a row. No way, zero, zilch,nada.
I maintain my long term position from 2012/2013. I'll probably add some more down here

 

[aznt1217]

It's a big $50 cut though. Stock tops when a string of upgrades, so stock will bottom when a serial of downgrades. How many analysts haven't given TSLA a downgrade yet? That might be one of the metrics to measure how close we are to the bottom?

More importantly it's a $50 cut based on short term worries although long term vision is in tact. I think they are just CYA'ing for some reason.

 

[Gtoffo]

I'm surprised this 2nd tier Analyst had power to drop TSLA a lot today. WSJ didn't help.

Regardless, my thesis is there's NO WAY Tesla misses guidance twice in a row. No way, zero, zilch,nada.
I maintain my long term position from 2012/2013. I'll probably add some more down here

If you remove the effect of the market drop, Tesla is down 2% today. Considering TSLA's high beta the effect of the downgrade is even less. The combination doesn't look pretty though.

 

[jhm]

Elon Musk: Tesla Charging Locations Will Be - NASDAQ.com

Here's some nice news. Tesla is really cranking up the Destination Charging program. It sounds like this could be getting close to critical mass where any business that hopes to attract Tesla owners as customers will need to sign up.

I'm not sure how this squares with the idea that Tesla will not offer the dual charger offer. I actually took up that option recently primarily to make optimal use of Destination Charging. At 58 mpg while you shop or eat at the location of your choice, Destination Charging is almost as good as Supercharging. So I'm not sure why Tesla would want to pull back on dual chargers at this point in time.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Important news tid bit from last press conference on SW version 6.2 is integration of Tesla Motors vehicles with proprietary charging network
Vehicles communicate in real time with SuperChargers (already more than 2000) and DestinationChargers during road trip planning.
This integration enables the vehicle to check for available charging locations and the vehicle can tell if a certain SuperCharger on your route is available or if a certain DestinationCharger (e.g. at your destination (hotel)) is up and running.
This will allow for a much more relaxed travelling.

As car companies with ICE tradition are not used to run energy infrastructure for refuelling the vehicles they sell, they just don't get the importance of this integration.
The traditional ICE competition just lost one more opportunity to close the innovation gap to Tesla.

Tesla Motors will double the number of SuperChargers and grow the number of DestinationChargers 10-fold this year.
Elon Musk: Tesla Charging Locations Will Be "Virtually Everywhere"

 

[techmaven]

Any thinking being would know that Tesla is not a solar-powered car, but even some here think that solar on supercharging stations is somehow very important. Filling a cover like that with solar panels might provide enough power to charge a couple of Teslas each day.

Let's say they were able to fill the area over 10 stations with, say, 120 panels. This would provide "in the ballpark of" 120KwH (120 * 200W * 5hrs, for very rough numbers). Even if they could double the number of panels, it's still only 3-4 charges per day. Supercharger solar is symbolism mostly, but granted that every bit helps.

Distributed home solar + storage is where it's at.

It doesn't have to be 100% solar. Even 5% solar, or 10% solar is significant. A gasoline car can't be 1% solar. Most of the energy use for a Model S is provided at night. At super-off peak, when the coal plants have dropped to the lowest possible settings (usually 40%), when the wind energy is higher, the natural gas peaker plants are offline, hydro is still pumping, and nuclear is still near 100%, the emissions profiles of BEVs are terrific. As for the coal, if that coal plant is at the lowest levels already and can't go any lower, the emissions for that night are already set... if you charge off of that plant, you are adding 0 additional emissions. A gasoline vehicle has very limited ability to change its emissions profile... and certainly not in the hands of the consumer. Do you really know where the crude oil came from for your gasoline or diesel? Or if the refinery uses co-gen electricity or straight grid electricity with high amounts of coal? Nope. But a BEV can have different emissions profiles that make the most sense for a given geographic and economic area.

 

[aznt1217]

Any thinking being would know that Tesla is not a solar-powered car, but even some here think that solar on supercharging stations is somehow very important. Filling a cover like that with solar panels might provide enough power to charge a couple of Teslas each day.

Let's say they were able to fill the area over 10 stations with, say, 120 panels. This would provide "in the ballpark of" 120KwH (120 * 200W * 5hrs, for very rough numbers). Even if they could double the number of panels, it's still only 3-4 charges per day. Supercharger solar is symbolism mostly, but granted that every bit helps.

Distributed home solar + storage is where it's at.

SC's aren't purely symbolic, there are some with batteries that store the excess solar from the off peak hours.

 

[techmaven]

I didn't catch that bottom. Sigh... Nice bounce off of the upper 192's. Let's see if we can build upon that.

 

[FluxCap]

A huge thank-you to our Norwegian friends for doing their homework and reporting good things here, and to TMC members like vgrinshpun and techmaven for crunching numbers. I think we may have a rare TMC information edge here, and I jumped in to buy some calls.

 

[gameon]

lot of upside in this stock but any bad results or news on model x can crush it down..two edge sword..

 

[maoing]

TM already missed Q3(slightly) and Q4(huge), it won't be pretty if they miss Q1 again, I truely hope it won't happen. Otherwise heading towards $150 is possible.

Thats my inclination, they cannot afford to miss already soft qtr guidance . Credit Agricol is totally irrelevant in
the securities world, though buyers are fatigued and need to see tesla back on a high growth path.

- - - Updated - - -

SP is a balance between short term performance and long term vision. We can't ignore any of them.

More importantly it's a $50 cut based on short term worries although long term vision is in tact. I think they are just CYA'ing for some reason.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I was really hoping not to have to do this, but we got up to 15 posts talking about that WSJ opinion piece, so I've shifted those posts to the main discussion on this article at Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Perhaps the number of contributors declined because it is not as easy or profitable as it used to be to do short term trades in TSLA.

Or because far too many posts are being shuffled off to other threads, an undesirable outcome?

 

[Drax7]

TM already missed Q3(slightly) and Q4(huge), it won't be pretty if they miss Q1 again, I truely hope it won't happen. Otherwise heading towards $150 is possible.



- - - Updated - - -

SP is a balance between short term performance and long term vision. We can't ignore any of them.

+1 Maoing,

Every miss is taken as an opportunity to discredit elon, and his vision, though the car has improved beyond
our expectations and tesla is on path to the ultimate objective.

Now we have the market correcting as S&P earnings are expected to decline the first
2 qtrs of the year. Dollar strength and oil collapse are weakening earnings in the short term
though longer term they are huge benefits.