Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Lump]

I have been waiting for Trip Chowdhry, he makes me LOL
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Global+Equities+Chowdhry+Offers+At+Factory+Insight+Into+Tesla+%28TSLA%29%3B+With+Port+Strike+Over+Business+is+Stabilizing/10409001.html

https://www.tipranks.com/experts/trip-chowdhry Trip Chowdhry's Performance

 

[aznt1217]

I have been waiting for Trip Chowdhry, he makes me LOL
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Global+Equities+Chowdhry+Offers+At+Factory+Insight+Into+Tesla+%28TSLA%29%3B+With+Port+Strike+Over+Business+is+Stabilizing/10409001.html

View attachment 76032
https://www.tipranks.com/experts/trip-chowdhry Trip Chowdhry's Performance

His photographs don't make any sense...

 

[ggies07]

Down another $6 I see......they really are trying to hit $177........ridiculous.....I'm a long-term shareholder, but man what a beating.

 

[ibcs]

Down another $6 I see......they really are trying to hit $177........ridiculous.....I'm a long-term shareholder, but man what a beating.

I can't remember the last time TSLA was down three days in a row. Maybe I've got short memory, but I keep thinking we have reached the bottom.

 

[aznt1217]

I can't remember the last time TSLA was down three days in a row. Maybe I've got short memory, but I keep thinking we have reached the bottom.

Yes, sentiment is bad with TSLA over the past year we've had a green month... Twice. I was hoping for a bounce today tlback to stable levels but turns out I was wrong. I'm hoping it recovers towards the end of the day because the sell off is unmerited.

 

[virtuesoft]

I can't remember the last time TSLA was down three days in a row. Maybe I've got short memory, but I keep thinking we have reached the bottom.

3 consecutive down days has occurred quite frequently, so don't take any comfort in that. We had 5 consecutive down days in January, and 8 in December.

 

[Noble Ninja]

3 consecutive down days has occurred quite frequently, so don't take any comfort in that. We had 5 consecutive down days in January, and 8 in December.

The reality is, TSLA has been in a downtrend since early September (six months ago), yet since then they've made accomplishments and improvements in that period of time. In fact, year over year, the stock hasn't moved much at all, despite all the advances. Last time TSLA was near $180 was at the yearly low in early May 2014. Oh, the joys of investing in highly shorted stocks.

 

[CyberDutchie]

3 consecutive down days has occurred quite frequently, so don't take any comfort in that. We had 5 consecutive down days in January, and 8 in December.

Skipping a reveal of the Model X in the spring was such a horrible decision at Tesla. We needed that kind of continued excitement after the D announcement to keep on the upward trend. In stead we are kept in the dark about Model X details till summer. Till then expect a continuation of the steady 2-3% drop a week, like air leaking out of a balloon. People are abandoning the stock because the momentum gone and Tesla's ability to execute questioned by someone new every week.

We need something from Tesla soon to stop the bleeding.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.

I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!

Markets in the short term are often irrational. It's terrible that you're in a bad situation now, but these things defy explanation because so many factors are at play.

For sure, current price level is painful to see for all us "longs". I'm expecting a solid Q1. No way Elon Musk misses this quarter. That would be stock price suicide.

Problem is the Earnings Call will be in early May. That's 5 weeks away. I'm a little concerned about the price levels between now and then. It's been negative slide for a long time now. I'm sure bull analysts are getting irritated. Quarter ends next Tuesday.

Let me put it this way: if tesla just so happens to have a strong beat for Q1, tesla better pre-announce it. Resets the sentiment.

A lot of entrenched interests in the media and industry have a vested interest in trying to destroy the company. Some financial institutions were humiliated in the past 2 years and want revenge. They will throw everything they can at the stock in the next 5 weeks. My news feed is full of bad headlines.

Short term trading is generally a losing game. I encourage people to ignore the noise

 

[maoing]

That's one of the most common mistaken words hauting in this forum. Short term trading isn't noise, follow the trend instead of wishful thinking.

Short term trading is generally a losing game. I encourage people to ignore the noise

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China issue impact is worse even than my pessimistic thinking. The most recent two LOWs (185and today’s) since ATH all contributed by Elon's China comments. I still clearly remember how many irrational attacks to me before Q4 ER when I pointedout that China issue might have severe impact for short to middle term. Right now, I want to make a call that China bottom is very close, maybe it's just today, don’t be panic for that. I have enough evidence that China market will be picking up from March and people show strong interests on D models with range, performance and upgraded seats.

 

[aznt1217]

That's one of the most common mistaken words hauting in this forum. Short term trading isn't noise, follow the trend instead of wishful thinking.



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China issue impact is worse even than my pessimistic thinking. The most recent two LOWs (185and today’s) since ATH all contributed by Elon's China comments. I still clearly remember how many irrational attacks to me before Q4 ER when I pointedout that China issue might have severe impact for short to middle term. Right now, I want to make a call that China bottom is very close, maybe it's just today, don’t be panic for that. I have enough evidence that China market will be picking up from March and people show strong interests on D models with range, performance and upgraded seats.

And I can confirm that they retained staff that was quite good and dropped the dead weights. Have a friend of a friend who works in sales there...

The inherent problem that is bothering me and others here is the continued misconception and misdirection in regards to demand because it affects the outlook on the company and therefore both FV and PV of the shares.

 

[Lump]

A lot of entrenched interests in the media and industry have a vested interest in trying to destroy the company. Some financial institutions were humiliated in the past 2 years and want revenge. They will throw everything they can at the stock in the next 5 weeks. My news feed is full of bad headlines.

Short term trading is generally a losing game. I encourage people to ignore the noise

~$13 Billion in market cap has been lost, at what point do you stop blaming the media, industry, noise & FUD etc..?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

That's one of the most common mistaken words hauting in this forum. Short term trading isn't noise, follow the trend instead of wishful thinking.

If this was the case, actively managed mutual funds would handily outperform index funds. They don't.

You're wrong.

 

[REBroker]

I invested in TSLA right around the time I took delivery of my P85D, the stock had gone down to $204 and I went all in instead of doing dollar cost averaging, this was a day after consumer reports dubbed the Model S their best car for the second year in a row so I was feeling good about the decision. Well, suffice to say I am certainly taking a beating here. I'm in for the long term though, so not too worried, but certainly could've gotten a few more shares if I had played the game a bit smarter. Anyone looking to invest during this downturn, should look into pacing their bets, no one knows when the bottom will come, if Tesla doesn't hit targets we could be in for a rough ride in a few days.

 

[sundaymorning]

Markets in the short term are often irrational. It's terrible that you're in a bad situation now, but these things defy explanation because so many factors are at play.




A lot of entrenched interests in the media and industry have a vested interest in trying to destroy the company. Some financial institutions were humiliated in the past 2 years and want revenge. They will throw everything they can at the stock in the next 5 weeks. My news feed is full of bad headlines.

Short term trading is generally a losing game. I encourage people to ignore the noise

The short game is nearly impossible to gauge. Investors are either vulnerable to bear attacks or unexpected tweets/beats/news from Elon, pick your poison. Sure the stock is down, but if you don't have enough timeframe to wait for X and positioned yourself for such delays, then it was poor planning just as much as it was poor execution by Tesla. Although I would transfer some of that blame on the port strike, oversupply of oil, etc., which were also other short term surprises that has blind sided the economy. I have seen many cycles like these in my life and remain unaffected by it, I stand by my game plan to buy on the dip, although my purchasing power is limited, my account should be net positive by year's end.

It's extremely easy for us to say with hindsight we should have done differently, but as a reminder, even the best of the best in this game is only about 50% right on all their bets, why do you think Kramer is wrong so many times? The reason why many members here recite the old tune of "buy on the dip" is because it pertains to long term outlook. If you were short term, there can be no catchphrase recommendation suitable for your bet, might as well take your money to the casino and play a game of war.

 

[aznt1217]

If this was the case, actively managed mutual funds would handily outperform index funds. They don't.

You're wrong.

Ah yes the modern debate of finance and efficient markets... There's no winning here. But its safe to say TSLA'S value is justified here more than it was when we had the peak last year. Elon also said it was priced well when we were at a 25B market cap.

 

[maoing]

~13 Billion market cap lost is mainly due to over promise and under delivery from TM. All the negative medias, FUD articles are just noise in my opinion, I only focus what TM said and achieved. For example China market, how come a once very promising market which can take 30-50% of TM's market shares drastically dropped to only <300 cars sold in a month? As a cautious note, watch out the EU market, if sth. wrong with that because of weak EU economy and strong dollar. Then even a huge beat Q1 ER might not help.

Another most common mistaken attitude in this forum is calling any negatives as FUD. In fact, many so called FUD articles has more wisdom than blind enthusiasm here. The FUD term can also be applied to TSLA bulls, someone does have Fear, Uncertain and Doubt on the reality.

~$13 Billion in market cap has been lost, at what point do you stop blaming the media, industry, noise & FUD etc..?

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You're wrong.

LoL, since I took bearish view on TSLA from 230, many folks said the same from 230, 220, 210, 200, 190 and now we are under 185.

 

[jhm]

I just bought my 1000th share.

In terms of Blind Faith Price Targets, the implied discount is currently 32.2%. It has not been this high since Dec 2, 2013 at $124.17/share. At this extremely bearish sentiment, the BFPT for end of this year is $229. If we return to neutral sentiment (median implied discount, 28%), the BFPT is $313. Bearish, first quartile, is $279. So if you really believe the longterm growth story, this is opportunity to accumulate in the face of extreme bear market sentiment. But of course, anything could happen in the short run.

 

[aznt1217]

~13 Billion market cap lost is mainly due to over promise and under delivery from TM. All the negative medias, FUD articles are just noise in my opinion, I only focus what TM said and achieved. For example China market, how come a once very promising market which can take 30-50% of TM's market shares drastically dropped to only <300 cars sold in a month? As a cautious note, watch out the EU market, if sth. wrong with that because of weak EU economy and strong dollar. Then even a huge beat Q1 ER might not help.

Another most common mistaken attitude in this forum is calling any negatives as FUD. In fact, many so called FUD articles has more wisdom than blind enthusiasm here. The FUD term can also be applied to TSLA bulls, someone does have Fear, Uncertain and Doubt on the reality.



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LoL, since I took bearish view on TSLA from 230, many folks said the same from 230, 220, 210, 200, 190 and now we are under 185.

The drop in market cap is due to the adjustment of expectations. Part of which is due to guidance but the other due to articles that are just blatantly wrong. Even you have to admit the stuff circulating around recently is ludicrous.

Your view is very much bearish short term on execution risk and bullish long term. The only problem is by the time Tesla executes and basing on what the company has already done, by the time you make a move it'll be too late and priced in. Based on what Tesla has done since its existence is already nothing short of amazing. The media's over emphasis on the Chinese market is useless as well. Tesla doesn't need to go into it now. Its setting up the foundation for when it counts later on and to take hold of its brand to prevent exporters from sending Model S' into the country prematurely (if they weren't present) that could harm the brand long term before model 3.

 

[Lump]

Nobody complained about the media on the upside (Motor trend, countless car review mags) FUD led to extreme short levels that EM busted masterfully, we all loved the ride to $290 but curse the media today.