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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
None of which means that short term trading is wise in the current environment.
I've stated repeatedly that absent substantive news, the trend would be downward. Knowing the trend and making money of this trend are entirely different things.
For Q1 ER, IMO, meet or slightly beat won't help. We need huge beat 10-20% at least because the guidance was way ridiculously so low.
Another good indicator of a bottom is when it gets chippy in the short-term investors thread. :wink:
This is not our first time at the rodeo (for most). There are an infinite number of ways to own/trade Tesla and anyone trying to tell you there is a "best" or "worst" way is either delusional or trying to sell you something.
An interesting trend to note is what is highlighted in different articles. An article with fairly balanced discussion of Tesla's potential vs. it's short-term execution & wildly negative speculation - in recent days, there is no "fair & balanced - (cough-ahem) treatment of the article. Anything negative is trumpeted in the headline and pulled out and emphasized in the text, many times with links to the Merrill Lynch bear case or the Wall St. Journal hit piece. Reminds me of the fall of 2013 and the road debris issue. I don't think this is conspiracy - just the great, self referential media echo chamber.
I invest in Tesla short-term because it is a dynamic company that is extremely volatile and I can make outsized returns, while feeling good about the "vehicle" for the outsized returns. I invest in Tesla long term for some of the same reasons, but also for its inherently disruptive nature and its potential to change the world.
I think Steve Jurvetson nailed it at at TMC Connect when he said that while he thought adoption of EVs was exponential in nature, he couldn't pinpoint the exact moment of the tipping point. He also challenged us with the idea of who could reasonably conceive of a future powered coal and gas. We are currently in the midst of the death of coal as plants go offline and demand craters (sorry Mitch McConnell).....gas is next.
Tesla will go back up again....and will drop precipitously. My strategy for this moment (in keeping with the short-term nature of the thread) was to convert some of my LEAPs and redeploy with a higher number of short-term (Sept 2015) calls with 1/2 of $ while keeping 1/2 cash. I think this is a Buffetesque time for fear and greed and choose to be a bit greedy. I think an energy storage announcement (hopefully prior to Q1 earnings), Q1 earnings and conference call and greater visibility of a Model X timeline are all coming in the next 90-120 days. If I'm totally wrong....well there is always the cash to give it another go.
Ask yourself if your basic Tesla investment thesis has dramatically changed (by greater than $100/share from ATH). If not, carry on.
Sorry for the long-winded post. Good luck to all...
This is not our first time at the rodeo (for most). There are an infinite number of ways to own/trade Tesla and anyone trying to tell you there is a "best" or "worst" way is either delusional or trying to sell you something.
An interesting trend to note is what is highlighted in different articles. An article with fairly balanced discussion of Tesla's potential vs. it's short-term execution & wildly negative speculation - in recent days, there is no "fair & balanced - (cough-ahem) treatment of the article. Anything negative is trumpeted in the headline and pulled out and emphasized in the text, many times with links to the Merrill Lynch bear case or the Wall St. Journal hit piece. Reminds me of the fall of 2013 and the road debris issue. I don't think this is conspiracy - just the great, self referential media echo chamber.
I invest in Tesla short-term because it is a dynamic company that is extremely volatile and I can make outsized returns, while feeling good about the "vehicle" for the outsized returns. I invest in Tesla long term for some of the same reasons, but also for its inherently disruptive nature and its potential to change the world.
I think Steve Jurvetson nailed it at at TMC Connect when he said that while he thought adoption of EVs was exponential in nature, he couldn't pinpoint the exact moment of the tipping point. He also challenged us with the idea of who could reasonably conceive of a future powered coal and gas. We are currently in the midst of the death of coal as plants go offline and demand craters (sorry Mitch McConnell).....gas is next.
Tesla will go back up again....and will drop precipitously. My strategy for this moment (in keeping with the short-term nature of the thread) was to convert some of my LEAPs and redeploy with a higher number of short-term (Sept 2015) calls with 1/2 of $ while keeping 1/2 cash. I think this is a Buffetesque time for fear and greed and choose to be a bit greedy. I think an energy storage announcement (hopefully prior to Q1 earnings), Q1 earnings and conference call and greater visibility of a Model X timeline are all coming in the next 90-120 days. If I'm totally wrong....well there is always the cash to give it another go.
Ask yourself if your basic Tesla investment thesis has dramatically changed (by greater than $100/share from ATH). If not, carry on.
Sorry for the long-winded post. Good luck to all...
Gerasimental
Member
Too much panic right now. Too strong emotional reactions during both sharp drop and sharp rises.
Added to long position at $185. Going to stop thinking about the short term for a bit. Going on a vacation next week and I don't need all the stress from this.
Good luck to everyone in these times.
Added to long position at $185. Going to stop thinking about the short term for a bit. Going on a vacation next week and I don't need all the stress from this.
Good luck to everyone in these times.
The inherent problem is Tesla has not met its guidance in past 2 quarters and actually by a huge one last quarter. Many other stocks would get crushed big time had they announce what Tesla did in Q4. Yes, there was a reason for it, but enough excuses already. This company cannot be gauged by PE, it is priced for perfect execution and future demand as what Elon has been portraying. Last 6 months has not shown that demand is higher as company is not able to meet its own goal - reduced one. Many bullish analysts have reduced targets or stayed there or softened language. No more bullish tone.
The market will give you a ride with positives from all corners when company is beating all expectations. It will give you quite the opposite when it is not meeting its own goals. Let's talk once Tesla beats a quarter.
flankspeed8
Member
I agree. Just bought in an initial small position at $184.20 today because I think this recent sell of is a little knee-jerk reaction. That being said, 2 months ago, all the talk was the Apple-Tesla market cap comparisons which many news outlets picked up. For all the good that Elon does for Tesla, his off the cuff statements and tweets that in many opinions over promise seems to be ripe for these swings. But it is easier to blame Jim Cramer on these boards. When I mentioned a couple of months ago that I was waiting to buy in around $180, the reactions were pretty negative and hostile IMO yet here we are with many of the perm-bulls wanting to wail and gnash their teeth against anything that even speaks remotely balanced about the near and long term challenges to TM.
Gerardf
Active Member
Tesla and specially Elon exclusively think long-term. However, should they have wanted to support the share price, they surely could easily have done so. Lots of potential news to use for that, specially around the model-X or opening up a bit more on showing proof demand and production figures reached. However it seems they see no reason for that, they have been very quiet actually.
I would start to worry when institutional investors would start to move away from the share, but from what I have been reading here actually the opposite has been happening over the past 4-5 months.
In case this is a setup, a bear trap, all seems to be set up for it to become a 'very interesting' short sqeeze. However to keep the opportunity to profit from that requires steel b***s, patience and persistence of those holding shares. Should this play out, this situation has "Elon" written all over it to me
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Herein lies the crux of the issue. Tesla has not met expectations in the past 2 quarters. Many analysts are saying as you do, 'enough excuses'.
There are those that see excuses, and others (including myself) that see valid reasons. Tesla would have handily beat estimates for Q4 2014 if they hadn't released the P85D, for example. I for one am glad that they did, as it increases long-term demand as well as ASP.
In summary, either you believe Elon et. al. (there is no demand problem, 55k cars delivered this year, X deliveries in Q3, 50% y/o/y growth for years to come), or you think they are either lying or cuckoo and you short the stock.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Tesla and specially Elon exclusively think long-term. However, should they have wanted to support the share price, they surely could easily have done so. Lots of potential news to use for that, specially around the model-X or opening up a bit more on showing proof demand and production figures reached. However it seems they see no reason for that, they have been very quiet actually.
I would start to worry when institutional investors would start to move away from the share, but from what I have been reading here actually the opposite has been happening over the past 4-5 months.
In case this is a setup, a bear trap, all seems to be set up for it to become a 'very interesting' short sqeeze. However to keep the opportunity to profit from that requires steel b***s, patience and persistence of those holding shares. Should this play out, this situation has "Elon" written all over it to me
Here's what you need, titanium undercarriage.
Any questions?
I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
Wow -- I'm always sorry to hear stories like this. I have personally never used margin to make option trades, even when day trading, as there is too much room for abrupt losses to create emotional trading decisions. I hope you dig out, sometimes taking a long break is in order.
Personally, when bears start salivating the way they are now and doom and gloom starts to set in, I think there are opportunities to get somewhat lucky and time a temporary bottom. But this is difficult, and requires massive amounts of research and diligence regarding all the market forces affecting a stock, and quite a bit of luck. It's not for the faint of heart, and only for the most risky portions of a portfolio.
If however, as the bears would have it, some personnel problems in Asian markets = Elon Musk will suddenly be unable to steer his company to launch and sell half a million BEV's worldwide over the next few years, then the story of Tesla is over. Do I believe this? Do the majority of professional investment analysts on the street? Not for a hot second.
Short term is tough folks, and not for weak stomachs. The market itself is in a precarious position right now with the S&P whipsawing, making swing trading more profitable than momentum / bull market trading. But that's the hard stuff. Trading ain't easy.
Also Re: China:
Telsa to localize production in China in 3 years: Elon Musk | Shanghai Daily Elon confirms China Overstock..
CALGARYARSENAL
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