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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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CALGARYARSENAL
Member
everman
Member
I just added some more to my core holdings. I wasn't sure I would get a chance in the $180's again. I think as Q1 approaches, the probability of a beat will become more clear to the market.
What is this? A neutral, reasonable, and accurate article? I didn't think those existed.
Just bought back some trading shares (about 40% of what I got out of around $200. if it goes under $185, I'll buy the other 60%). By the middle of next week there's pretty good likelihood the strong deliveries in Norway will get picked up in coverage. I think the window of really cheap prices has a pretty good chance of ending there. If it doesn't, this is a cost basis at which I'm quite comfortable holding shares. If Norway has a record number of cars ever delivered from one model and it does not get discussed in the financial media, to me that would be pretty telling of a suppression of positive news in addition repetition of negative spin we've seen so much of.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
This has to signal a bottom....LOL. Sorry for your pain. I am now entering the house of pain but it is a long term (10yr) bet. I fully expected a pummeling.
So, there definitely have been negative spin. But there are negative news too. Tesla is priced for HUGE growth and when market sees a problem with that growth, even if a temporary one, it will pause and reprice the stock. This is essentially what is happening. To get back to upside, Tesla needs to show a HUGE beat in Q1. I see indication of meeting the goal, but there is no clear sign for a huge beat.
I also think the stationary storage news won't have a material impact as its timeframe with solid bottom line will be what we all know - a few years down the road. Short term, any Model X news (which won't happen until Q3 IMO), and Q1 will move the stock significantly.
I also think the stationary storage news won't have a material impact as its timeframe with solid bottom line will be what we all know - a few years down the road. Short term, any Model X news (which won't happen until Q3 IMO), and Q1 will move the stock significantly.
I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
Sorry to hear that.:cursing:. I believe the thread has gotten better recently with less of the 'buy now you will never see it this low' to' we must be cautious' because TM/TSLA needs to meet guidance (my we need more 'steak' and less 'sizzle' analogy) to start the positive news trend/upward movement. I really do not see another NAIAS 2014 moment or the type of appreciation (% wise) that we saw in 2013. I am not one that sees TSLA at $300 this year. Maybe next year with better execution.
I have been willing to put out a very small amount of money trying to predict short term swings. I do slowly add some J17 LEAPS as we swing lower hoping that late 2015/2016 will see some nice appreciation. I will be happy with a 25% return where in past years you could almost guarantee 100%+ returns.
I see so many people watching this thread while TSLA gets another beating down 2% while the overall market is slightly up. Feels like everyone here is stunned and waiting for someone to explain why this is happening.
I personally am tired and pissed at the market, the media, and Tesla. Here you read constantly about people picking up more shares because it's such a good buying opportunity. The stock will take of any moment now, yeah right!
Who is selling? I know I have to sell some of my core long term holdings soon, out of necessity because of the calls that were bought on margin all went up in smoke when they expired worthlessly last week. And more calls will likely have the same fate in June.
Worst of all, I can now forget about the reservation for the Model X. Just won't have the money to pay for it.
Mulder, sorry re calls, I'd missed that part when I first wrote this. It does suck when you see the valuation clearly, but timing trips you up. I'll leave the rest of my comment, though I can see in your call situation, it does not offer any help.
To me Tesla's intrinsic value is about $260/share. I don't find it surprising that the following recent events could have had these rough impacts to the stock to people who do not look as closely or long-term as most of us do: China ~$25, Oil price drop ~$20, execution/delivery issues/quarter miss ~$15, no GAAP profit until 2020/analyst eps reductions ~$20. You put all of these together, and then ADD in the fact that many people do the opposite of what they do when a stock is on sale AND the tremendous onslaught of FUD, and to my mind Tesla has actually performed rather well. If Tesla were really a bubble stock, with this rash of events we'd be trading at about $50-60 now.
The only issue above that concerns me somewhat is China. I think they will get on track, but I think it shows that we cannot take for granted smooth execution of bigger long term challenges to be negotiated there (relationship with government re access and incentives, manufacturing partner, etc...).
As I stated above, as soon as 3 or 4 more trading days, we may see coverage that directly contradicts the demand "problem" speculation (or at least reiterates the foolishness of valuing Tesla on month-month fluctuations is deliveries to specific countries).
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So we have:
1) Potentially surprisingly excellent deliveries in Europe.
2) Apparent inventory clearing, which was not in the guidance for Q1 as they anticipated adding 500 cars to inventory even after delivering 1,400 cars from Q4 production.
3) It seems like a smoother end-of-quarter delivery season than last Q.
4) They don't seem to be pulling forward factory deliveries as much as last quarter so they are looking a little less desperate although we must balance this with the discounted inventory sales.
Today or next week could very easily be a bottom.
1) Potentially surprisingly excellent deliveries in Europe.
2) Apparent inventory clearing, which was not in the guidance for Q1 as they anticipated adding 500 cars to inventory even after delivering 1,400 cars from Q4 production.
3) It seems like a smoother end-of-quarter delivery season than last Q.
4) They don't seem to be pulling forward factory deliveries as much as last quarter so they are looking a little less desperate although we must balance this with the discounted inventory sales.
Today or next week could very easily be a bottom.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
For sure, current price level is painful to see for all us "longs". I'm expecting a solid Q1. No way Elon Musk misses this quarter. That would be stock price suicide.
Problem is the Earnings Call will be in early May. That's 5 weeks away. I'm a little concerned about the price levels between now and then. It's been negative slide for a long time now. I'm sure bull analysts are getting irritated. Quarter ends next Tuesday.
Let me put it this way: if tesla just so happens to have a strong beat for Q1, tesla better pre-announce it. Resets the sentiment.
Problem is the Earnings Call will be in early May. That's 5 weeks away. I'm a little concerned about the price levels between now and then. It's been negative slide for a long time now. I'm sure bull analysts are getting irritated. Quarter ends next Tuesday.
Let me put it this way: if tesla just so happens to have a strong beat for Q1, tesla better pre-announce it. Resets the sentiment.
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mitch672
Active Member
I'm sure you mean "sentiment", but at this point, it does feel like I am hanging onto some murky sediment
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'm sure you mean "sentiment", but at this point, it does feel like I am hanging onto some murky sediment
Wow. Yep.
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