Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sundaymorning]

Oil just breached $50 in Asian markets. Could be a nice Monday if US follows.

 

[AlMc]

Oil just breached $50 in Asian markets. Could be a nice Monday if US follows.

Excellent. I know that many argue that the price of TSLA does not correlate with the price of oil...BUT....This can't be bad news for TSLA. Couple that with the >10K delivery news it is shaping up to be a very interesting (and hopefully very 'green') Monday.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

We can offer 3 models


Model 3 Base - 39k model with 220 mile range - Respectable 0-60 in 5.5 seconds - Compete with base BMW 320 and 328 and Audi a3/a4


Model 3D AWD - 49k model with 280 mile range - Fast 0-60 of 4.5seconds - Compete with base BMW 335 xdrive


Model 3D Sport - 69k model with 265 mile range with Crazy Fast 0-60 of 2.9seconds - Compete with BMW M3 and Audi s4

This ^_*

 

[sundaymorning]

Excellent. I know that many argue that the price of TSLA does not correlate with the price of oil...BUT....This can't be bad news for TSLA. Couple that with the >10K delivery news it is shaping up to be a very interesting (and hopefully very 'green') Monday.

It also appears that Asian markets are shrugging off the US jobs number, the Nekkei is down by an insignificant percentage while China is up strong.

 

[oneday]

A shot in the dark, but I'm guessing we'll jump up to about the $210 level at close today. Followed by some bouncing around with slight raise leading up to the eom announcement, followed by a drop due to the market not being too excited about the as expected stationary storage. Declining all the way till close on day of earnings announcement. With solid results and forecasts market open on day after earnings big gains for the remainder of the year! My short term view! Added to my position in March, will probably sell some on the 30th and by it all back just be for close on day of earnings. Thinking positive all month!

 

[TSLAopt]

A shot in the dark, but I'm guessing we'll jump up to about the $210 level at close today. Followed by some bouncing around with slight raise leading up to the eom announcement, followed by a drop due to the market not being too excited about the as expected stationary storage. Declining all the way till close on day of earnings announcement. With solid results and forecasts market open on day after earnings big gains for the remainder of the year! My short term view! Added to my position in March, will probably sell some on the 30th and by it all back just be for close on day of earnings. Thinking positive all month!

while the Friday release is good news, I would temper your short term expectations on the stock price

 

[sundaymorning]

Premarket is looking strong!

 

[Matias]

Capital expenditures such as the gigafactory buildout do not effect EPS. Capital expenditures would only show up as less available cash in the bank. With $1.9 or $1.5 billion in the bank basically earning nothing, as a shareholder, I want the capital to be spent as quickly as is prudent to get that asset from earning virtually nothing to earning a return. Once the building is operational a small amount of the total capital expenditure (1/12 of 1/30th) of the building cost would show up as depreciation each month (assuming 30 year life of the building). Machinery, once placed into operation might have a shorter life of 15 or even 5 years. But until the asset is placed into service, there will be no EPS ramifications and thus no incentive to speed up or slow down the build out of that asset.

If I understand correctly, that also means, that one can not say, that Tesla is not profitable, because of big capital expenditure. But research and developement money affects EPS, right? If they are not counted as assets?

 

[Lump]

 

[Gtoffo]

We are over 3% in Pre-market....

 

[sundaymorning]

We are over 3% in Pre-market....

I have a feeling $200 will easily be broken today.

 

[Bgarret]

View attachment 77079

"hallow egg"; "when the bough breaks", "keeping the band together". Are these guys analysts or The Brothers Grimm...my new nickname for them. I know this could be awhile, because in the scheme of things we barely just kicked off, but for now I'm going to just say "scoreboard". Whether the score is 730-0 for the 2 years (365x2) that the have been unabashedly and unambiguously wrong....or 160-0 which is the price appreciation their clients have missed out on, or 130-0, the difference between the stock and their current price target.

My report would be titled "Playing Ball": I've analyzed Team Merrill's abysmal track record, their poor leadership and lack of good game time decision-making, they have no bench depth and the ownership group has a history of needing to get bailed out. Taking into account their current personnel and poor future prospects - I'm going to have to bet on the boy-genius Billionaire and the collection of passionate dreamers that have been cleaning Team Merrill's clock for the past 2 years.

I understand John Peterson needs to make a couple bucks and is on the free agent market - maybe you could pick him up?

 

[FredTMC]

"hallow egg"; "when the bough breaks", "keeping the band together". Are these guys analysts or The Brothers Grimm...my new nickname for them. I know this could be awhile, because in the scheme of things we barely just kicked off, but for now I'm going to just say "scoreboard". Whether the score is 730-0 for the 2 years (365x2) that the have been unabashedly and unambiguously wrong....or 160-0 which is the price appreciation their clients have missed out on, or 130-0, the difference between the stock and their current price target.

My report would be titled "Playing Ball": I've analyzed Team Merrill's abysmal track record, their poor leadership and lack of good game time decision-making, they have no bench depth and the ownership group has a history of needing to get bailed out. Taking into account their current personnel and poor future prospects - I'm going to have to bet on the boy-genius Billionaire and the collection of passionate dreamers that have been cleaning Team Merrill's clock for the past 2 years.

I understand John Peterson needs to make a couple bucks and is on the free agent market - maybe you could pick him up?

What a complete idiot. Fortunately for him equity analytical skills don't matter at BOFA Merill. Apparently there's other more important components to his agenda that they judge him on.

- - - Updated - - -


Here's some news (see new thread posted)

Beijing scraps driving limits for electric vehicles

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ben Kallo of Baird is out with the new note (StreetInsider.com digest is included below). Note that Ben Kallo was the first to hint about the Q1 beat in his note issued on March 6th.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and $275 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) after the company announced it delivered over 10k vehicles during Q1 beating both their/Street delivery estimates as well as TSLA's guidance.Kallo highlighted:

• Delivered 10,030 vehicles vs. guidance of 9500 which will be well received considering recent sentiment. TSLA beat its Q1 delivery target by 500+ cars (6%). This should be well received considering just a few weeks ago some bears argued there wasn’t even enough demand to hit Q1 targets.
• We think their decision to change reporting is just as good as the delivery beat. TSLA will now report deliveries within three days of the end of each quarter. This is a good decision as it will reduce speculation and erroneous reports of demand during the month between the end of the quarter and quarterly report
• Raising revenue for beat and lowering EPS as currency continued to move against TSLA. We are lowering our 2015 EPS estimate from $0.65 to $0.52 as we increased revenue modestly for the delivery beat but adjusted estimates for continued strengthening of the dollar since its report.
• Bears focus shifts to profitability and Q2 – we think TSLA continues to make progress on cost reductions and demand continues to be strong. New bear arguments surfaced focused on EPS for Q1 which will be negatively impacted by currency, but we think this concern is overblown as focus will begin to shift back to long term thesis (Model X and Model 3 are coming) as TSLA improves execution after the last two quarters. Additionally, TSLA continues to make cost improvements which should help drive profitability improvements. The demand front also looks solid with continued strength in U.S. and Europe.
• Own shares ahead of several positive data points. We would buy shares now ahead of the quarterly report (believe estimates are correctly calibrated for both Q1 and Q2), April 30 product announcement, and Model X launch.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.
Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $191.00 yesterday.

 

[aznt1217]

Reading that ML report made me laugh so hard. My theory is the figure was released to quell doubts about demand and because the team probably predicts a lot of the conference call will revolve around home storage which ML calla desperation..

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Jim Cramer said "things have changed" and that Tesla is "starting to look like a car company." Although he still does not like the stock, it is a start. I think he will start liking this wonderful little #Cult stock when it breaks the 200 day moving average and beats on earnings.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla Motors hires Formula 1 Red Bull Racing chief as Global Director of Service Training. StreetInsider.com:

Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) is said to made a key addition to its executive team, turning to Formula 1 expertise to fill the role.MotorSport.com said Tesla hired former Red Bull Racing chief mechanic Kenny Handkammer as Global Director of Service Training for the company.
Handkammer was previously with Benetton and Renault. The mechanic also worked with Michael Schumacher during his championship seasons in 1994 and 1995. Overall, Handkammer said he has won 13 F1 championships.

 

[aznt1217]

Tesla Motors hires Formula 1 Red Bull Racing chief as Global Director of Service Training. StreetInsider.com:

I just saw this too. This is bananas.

 

[Hogfighter]

Jim Cramer said "things have changed" and that Tesla is "starting to look like a car company." Although he still does not like the stock, it is a start. I think he will start liking this wonderful little #Cult stock when it breaks the 200 day moving average and beats on earnings.

The funny thing about that quote is that things most definitely have not changed. TM has done everything they've said they were going to do:

1) Build a sedan from the Roadster funds (Model S)
2) Build 20,000 cars in 2013, ending with a gross margin of 25%
3) Grow by 50% per year

I could go on and on. Additionally, John Lovallo neglects in his negative article that Q1 is a shorter quarter than Q4, and that they shut the plant down for a week for time off. That guy picks and chooses what he wants to report...which makes him irrelevant.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla Motors hires Formula 1 Red Bull Racing chief as Global Director of Service Training. StreetInsider.com:

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