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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I'm just trying not to see things through my " I love Tesla" pink glasses anymore, because that did hurt me quite a lot, but rather take a (safer) half empty glass and more realistic approach when it's short term TSLA price movement.
I was not expecting anything like this!
Since September, it' s been all going down with a few bounces, and the slope has been rather steep sometimes.
But I had "hope" it holds 200 dma, "hope" that it bounces back through it, hope that there is a tweet or good news around the corner that would fuel a rallye, hope that it decorrelates from oil...Well you get the picture.
On the long term, yesterday's interview gives confidence that yes, this company will be doing good and has amazing plans.
But on the short term (very short term), what do we have? What does Mr. Market has? Did the Market get what he wanted yesterday evening, how will it spin it?
Do we hope that what EM said about sales is deliveries, or lets face it, they have not delivered 33 000? I'm confused on that one.
I think there was no "waow" factor that could propel the stock higher for the moment, and since there is so much pressure to drag it down, I don't feel too optimistic about today and the next few weeks.
I was not expecting anything like this!
Since September, it' s been all going down with a few bounces, and the slope has been rather steep sometimes.
But I had "hope" it holds 200 dma, "hope" that it bounces back through it, hope that there is a tweet or good news around the corner that would fuel a rallye, hope that it decorrelates from oil...Well you get the picture.
On the long term, yesterday's interview gives confidence that yes, this company will be doing good and has amazing plans.
But on the short term (very short term), what do we have? What does Mr. Market has? Did the Market get what he wanted yesterday evening, how will it spin it?
Do we hope that what EM said about sales is deliveries, or lets face it, they have not delivered 33 000? I'm confused on that one.
I think there was no "waow" factor that could propel the stock higher for the moment, and since there is so much pressure to drag it down, I don't feel too optimistic about today and the next few weeks.
Thanks for this and thanks for posting the video. One other interesting quote is "we are pretty happy with the number of cars produced and ordered." I don't know if I can read anything into that. It does make me lean towards a slight beat of 33,000 deliveries and probably a more substantial beat of the 35,000 production guidance but honestly I have no idea.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
I am confused by Elon Musk's remark on having sold more than 33,000 cars in 2014.
Can someone help me with the interpretation? Sorry, no native English speaker here, so oftentimes I miss the fine distinctions.
Does this mean, they factored in the lengthening of the wait list? Actual deliveries so low that they mentioned 'sales' to look good? Is 'sales' the number of people who put down a deposit?
TSLA down 6 % in Frankfurt. 162.1 Euro, ca. 191.1 US$
Can someone help me with the interpretation? Sorry, no native English speaker here, so oftentimes I miss the fine distinctions.
Does this mean, they factored in the lengthening of the wait list? Actual deliveries so low that they mentioned 'sales' to look good? Is 'sales' the number of people who put down a deposit?
TSLA down 6 % in Frankfurt. 162.1 Euro, ca. 191.1 US$
What I read in there is: production issues are partially or totally resolved and there is still strong demand for the model S. There is nothing unfortunatelly that help us conclude they delivered 33k cars or more. On the other hand, what's more important? if it's 32.5 or 33.5, as long as demand is strong, every car produced will eventually be delivered and that is the point, IMO, but then the headlines will be, you know, they miss the quarter. And there will be all this FUD on SA again.
Someone tell me if I am missing something here but I noticed he didn't mention weak China demand until pretty far into the interrogation, I mean er, interview. He immediately said they more than made up for it elsewhere. In any event I then looked at the timestamp on the Verge liveblog and it says that was said at 2:17 PST which is 5:17 EST. When I look at the after hours chart at Google Finance I see the sell-off started at 4:50 and completed by 5pm. So if I correlate that directly, oh ok, it started as soon as Elon took the stage. I see only positive things expressed during this time. I would think if someone were trying to create an illusion that the statement on weak China demand is driving the stock downwards they would at least get the timing right. The same thing happened last year the minute Jerome opened his mouth but last year lucky for us Tesla pre-announced a high delivery number. The weird thing is I wonder if Tesla knows exactly what is going on. Why didn't they have a regular press conference this year? Perhaps they thought by only speaking after hours they might reduce the damage that can be done. Too bad they don't have a 20% guidance beat to report this year.
Exactly, if you watch the video, before the quote he goes on to great lengths to explain that the real demand gauge for Tesla is not how many cars get pushed out of the factory like a traditional car company, but how many orders they have on the book. And then he tells us they had way more than 33 000 orders last year. It's quite clear he is setting us up for a miss in terms of delivery next quarter but maintaining the guidance because their order book keeps growing.
I read somewhere that he had an interview with WSJ before the "interrogation ", and I remember reading as well during the day that sales in China were not as strong as expected. I guess going back a few pages on this thread will help us. This plus the exec seats should have given us a kind of pre-warning...I was excpecting no news or good news with stock flat or up, but was not prepared for the single bad news being put forward so much, specially when it is offset by the increase of sales or deliveries somewhere else. Of course that is not making any headlines...
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Actually the stock is too much out of the technical borders and this is happening from too much time. IMO Tesla should make some big actions soon (like unveiling Beta version of MX) to defend the technical features of the stock.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Uselesslogin, exactly the same observation here!
I thought it was only my perception and I thought I might have missed something...
What I did yesterday was whatching live blog feeds from at least these two sources:
- Live blog: Tesla founder Elon Musk speaks in Detroit
- http://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-detroit-auto-show-2015/#/
After reading that deliveries declined in China at the first blog freep, I wanted to double check at the second blog, the verge, and did not find anything similar over there!
In fact after going back to the freep live blog and accidentally reloading the blog, I had seen that the first blog entries about declined deliveries in China were no longer there!
By that time SP already declined significantly.
I had even searched for the key word China via text search in my browser at that time, and no more match, gone!
Right at that moment I wished I had made a screen shot, but you don't do that usually, right
Did anybody else have the same experiance?
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Do you have a link to the full interview video? So far I've only found the 2 Q&A videos from the event but not the main inteview.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Tesla should make product announcements to defend techincal features of the stock??
I am not an expert of this field. Just said the opinion of a not expert to work out the situation. It should be considered that the 50-DMA is under the 200-DMA. Not good for the stock IMO.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Uselesslogin, exactly the same observation here!
I thought it was only my perception and I thought I might have missed something...
What I did yesterday was whatching live blog feeds from at least these two sources:
- Live blog: Tesla founder Elon Musk speaks in Detroit
- http://live.theverge.com/elon-musk-tesla-detroit-auto-show-2015/#/
After reading that deliveries declined in China at the first blog freep (blog takes some time to show up on web page), I wanted to double check at the second blog, the verge, and did not find anything similar over there!
In fact after going back to the freep live blog and accidentally reloading the blog, I had seen that the first blog entries about declined deliveries in China were no longer there!
By that time SP already declined significantly.
I had even searched for the key word China via text search in my browser at that time, and no more match, gone!
Right at that moment I wished I had made a screen shot, but you don't do that usually, right
Did anybody else have the same experiance?
In fact here are some posts from the freep blog in time sequential order (some for this purpose irrelevant entries not mentioned):
- Tesla chief Elon Musk being introduced. Addressing Detroit auto audience.
- Main reason I'm here is to focus on electric vehicles, says Musk.
- Tesla shares drop below $200 in aftermarket trading.
- Tesla shares now down to $191 (-6.4%) in aftermarket trading. #ElonMusk
- Musk won't say how many Model S cars #Tesla sold last year.
- "Most of our cars are ordered in advance," he says.
- But Musk says #Tesla on pace to sell 500,000 by 2020.
- This might be a good time to point out that @TeslaMotors stock closed today at $204.25 per share, up 27% from a year ago.
- I haven't seen anything about china sales
- Orders for US cars rising but won't say how much. Musk says reporting Tesla sales would only confuse people.
- China was unexpectedly weak in the 4th quarter: #ElonMusk
- Musk often refers to sales as deliveries and not orders. The two are entirely different. I would like to know if orders are down in China or deliveries are down.
That is amazing, please double check yourself in the freep live blog!
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
OK. As I said I am not an expert of this field. Got the (wrong) impression that the stock was strategic for Tesla.
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