Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[aznt1217]

Very nice.

This goes to Elon's point that they will manufacture as quickly as their slowest supplier...

 

[FANGO]

Somehow 6,340 posts have been generated (and left) in this thread about nothing..

That's precisely my point. You note that this thread has a lot of posts - that's because people use it as an omnibus thread, no matter how often posts get moved to random other threads. I can't think of an event more likely to affect short term prices than earnings, and yet that topic is apparently not allowed here. If it's not, then what is?

The fact that this thread has so many posts shows what it's being used as. For those who want threaded discussion and want to follow twenty separate discussions, they can go to the threads. For those who want one thread to just put everything in, well, that's what everyone seems to use this as, and it seems that they will continue to do so since, as you said, this has happened on yet another quarter. So why not cut down on your work and just let people post whatever topics here?

I'll put my vote in for renaming the thread, next year, something like "catch-all investor discussions." Since that's what this thread seems to have always been used as anyway.

 

[TSLAopt]

Looking back to the last few ER's this is the most bullish reaction in quite some time! I would hope this indicates tomorrow will be a good day, hard to know.

The fact that everyone on here is so convinced that we'll get above 240 into the 250 range tomorrow really makes me hesitate in my expectations for tomorrow's price action....I hope everyone on here is right on how the market will react tomorrow...in any case long term I think its a no brainer, just whether we get above 240 tomorrow or dip back down to 210-220 in the next few days before a slow rise back above 240 time will tell

 

[Krugerrand]

This goes to Elon's point that they will manufacture as quickly as their slowest supplier...

No, this goes to Tesla will start building their own dies. This is a tool shop.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Teslas first-quarter loss widens amid heavy spending - LA Times

"The company is burning through its cash reserves, and it's never been profitable," said Karl Brauer, an analyst with auto information company Kelley Blue Book.

Losses Widen at Tesla, but Company Says Production Is on Track

Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book, said a lot was riding on Tesla’s new S.U.V., and that the company needed to ensure an on-time, trouble-free release.

“Any further Model X delays will reflect poorly on Tesla, though getting it to market is only half the battle,” Mr. Brauer said. “Interest will be huge initially, reflecting the current market’s hunger for all things S.U.V., but if something derails the Model X’s rollout and keeps Tesla from taking full advantage of the hype and pent-up demand, it will be a missed opportunity.”

 

[aznt1217]

No, this goes to Tesla will start building their own dies. This is a tool shop.

I thought it was for stamped parts that were shipped over. Either way its tighter vertical integration and could possibly be used as good will to generate demand in a state where they can't sell. Also its a signal. A company that is unhealthy (which the bears claim) wouldn't and couldn't be doing acquisitions (generally)

 

[FANGO]

The fact that everyone on here is so convinced that we'll get above 240 into the 250 range tomorrow really makes me hesitate in my expectations for tomorrow's price action....I hope everyone on here is right on how the market will react tomorrow...in any case long term I think its a no brainer, just whether we get above 240 tomorrow or dip back down to 210-220 in the next few days before a slow rise back above 240 time will tell

I see us being flattish or up tomorrow. I can't think of why we would go back down to 210...which is why I'm holding onto my 175-210 may 15th spread until expiration (unless I can get ~$34 for it)

- - - Updated - - -

Mr. Brauer said. “Interest will be huge initially, reflecting the current market’s hunger for all things S.U.V., but if something derails the Model X’s rollout and keeps Tesla from taking full advantage of the hype and pent-up demand, it will be a missed opportunity.”

Yeah....maybe people will go buy one of the other electric SUVs on the market instead....

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought it was for stamped parts that were shipped over. Either way its tighter vertical integration and could possibly be used as good will to generate demand in a state where they can't sell. Also its a signal. A company that is unhealthy (which the bears claim) wouldn't and couldn't be doing acquisitions (generally)

Google is our friend, it's a tool shop. Riviera Tool, LLC - Riviera Tool, LLC

They may produce some parts for companies, but primarily they make dies. But yes, tighter vertical integration for sure and everything else you said.

 

[AlMc]

The fact that everyone on here is so convinced that we'll get above 240 into the 250 range tomorrow really makes me hesitate in my expectations for tomorrow's price action....I hope everyone on here is right on how the market will react tomorrow...in any case long term I think its a no brainer, just whether we get above 240 tomorrow or dip back down to 210-220 in the next few days before a slow rise back above 240 time will tell

I am with you. Trying to temper my expectations as it seems when everyone is primed/talking about a surge around/after an ER we get a little fizzle. I subscribe to your long term thought though. This was a good ER and excellent CC. I like that the investor relations person (IIRC) jumped in a couple times and focused EM in on something specific a couple times.

 

[sundaymorning]

I am with you. Trying to temper my expectations as it seems when everyone is primed/talking about a surge around/after an ER we get a little fizzle. I subscribe to your long term thought though. This was a good ER and excellent CC. I like that the investor relations person (IIRC) jumped in a couple times and focused EM in on something specific a couple times.

Go super long and forget about it Even with a good QR and CC, tomorrow is still unpredictable. If investors sitting on the sidelines aren't persuaded to jump on board now, they might as well wait for a better CC and QR when they are 100% sure the company will take off, in 2017. I don't understand people's/market's logic sometimes, and that's why I gave up on the short game. If we don't dip into negative territory tomorrow, I may need to deploy the last bits of my cash to catch the x train.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am with you. Trying to temper my expectations as it seems when everyone is primed/talking about a surge around/after an ER we get a little fizzle. I subscribe to your long term thought though. This was a good ER and excellent CC. I like that the investor relations person (IIRC) jumped in a couple times and focused EM in on something specific a couple times.

My instinct is that this CC will cause TSLA to rise in the near term, but I don't expect a dramatic upswing in a short space of time.

Even if a whole bunch of analyst upgrades happen, it will take time for market entities to react to revised opinions.

 

[oneday]

It has been the plan since at least late 2014 anyway.

That's good to know. I was afraid of x like push backs. I guess if it's delivered anytime in 2017 then we're on target.

 

[FluxCap]

Tesla buys Grand Rapids auto supplier, its first presence in Michigan

Acquisition in Motor City! Cool stuff, I'd like to know more.

 

[ggies07]

Tesla buys Grand Rapids auto supplier, its first presence in Michigan

Acquisition in Motor City! Cool stuff, I'd like to know more.

Could this also be a political play with resistance towards direct sales? hmm.........

 

[jhm]

Google is our friend, it's a tool shop. Riviera Tool, LLC - Riviera Tool, LLC

They may produce some parts for companies, but primarily they make dies. But yes, tighter vertical integration for sure and everything else you said.

This is exciting. Would this be a first acquisition for Tesla? Tesla needs lots of tools. Just rolling out one GF after another would be a full-time job.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is exciting. Would this be a first acquisition for Tesla? Tesla needs lots of tools. Just rolling out one GF after another would be a full-time job.

The article says it's an acquisition. :wink: For the inner (and where you are concerned, outer) math person, being able to make their own die sets for Model 3 (and making spares/replacements for Model S, X) would produce significant dollar savings.

 

[willowspuppy]

If true, this puzzles me a little, actually. There's a reason manufacturers generally buy from tool and die suppliers rather than make them in-house. Granted Tesla is not like most manufacturers and maybe this particular acquisition contains more synergies than are apparent, but it seems a little strange. Also, how likely is it that the workforce in an established auto supplier in a UAW dominated state will integrate easily into the Tesla culture?

 

[Curt Renz]

With the close to utter disdain that EM has for Lovallo you have to wonder if the guy just can't bring himself to admit he has been and is wrong about TM/TSLA and move his estimate up......significantly.

I can hardly wait for Lovallo’s next Tesla note. A reason to chuckle is always appreciated. He might write something like, “Model S owners have indicated no interest in battery swaps. That should hammer the final nail in Tesla’s coffin. Double down your shorts, as this one is quickly heading for zero.” :wink:

 

[Vger]

My instinct is that this CC will cause TSLA to rise in the near term, but I don't expect a dramatic upswing in a short space of time.

Even if a whole bunch of analyst upgrades happen, it will take time for market entities to react to revised opinions.

I believe that this is another step change in the vision of the company, like when Elon first talked about the need for the gigafactory. It will take literally months for the acolytes of conventional wisdom to understand the scope and depth of Tesla/Elon's vision. Only after they begin to appreciate just how revolutionary this vision is will the stock move up and hold the next level, which I expect will approach $300 late this year or early next year.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla's Powerwall is already sold out through middle of 2016