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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I bet TM regrets naming their cars after the energy storage spec. The elegant answer is to make Model X 70 and 85 "class" vehicles that match the Model S range (by quietly having more storage capacity, and pricing accordingly). But it will be super confusing to make X85D's that are actually 92kWh (or whatever). So if the Model X are "big and medium" packs like the model S, they can keep the rated range the same, or the kWh, but not both. So which will they move? It would have been more future proof to give them names or something.

Gotta agree with this. These kWh numbers in the model names will be a liability in the future as is becomes clearer and clearer how muddy these numbers are (100-0% SOC on and "85" Model S is some 77kWh it seems). What people are interested in is range and performance, not the actual amount of kWhs. As you say a bigger and/or heavier car will need more kWh to match and smaller/sleeker/lighter car.
 
If you want to take issue with it then you can bring it up to the EPA, because that's what the number comes from (unless you think tesla is lying, of course, in which case they will be in big trouble). I feel like they probably have a fair grasp of how auto efficiency works.

The number is literally average efficiency. It is literally real world. This is a fact, not my opinion. If you are below that, then you are below average, by definition.

No need for the condescending tone suggesting someone simply "sucks" at driving efficiently.

The EPA sticks a single average number - with identical driving behaviours, drivers in Vermont will be structurally below average and above average in California. Unfortunately, you don't get to choose your weather unless you relocate your life to be able to reach a better wh/mile.

Rated range may be very close to what you experience on average for your local weather, but it's not really possible in places that have 10cm of snow and -20C a few months of the year.
 
UBS lays out “dream solar scenario: 50% of global generation by 2050 : Renew Economy

USB anticipates a generator glut by 2020 as I have warned here. The headlines distract from the crisis brewing. Note this buried paragraph:



In other words, USB anticipates a massive government bail out of thermal electric generators. Apparently, USB sees a role for natural gas because they seem to underestimate battery storage. They see the price of batteries declining 75% over the next decade, but do not see this leading to mass defections.

What they miss is that batteries will absolutely destroy any market for gas peaking plants. The levelized cost from such plants is in the range of 18 to 23 c/kWh. At the current price of Powerpacks, the levelized cost of storage is in range of 6 to 9 c/kWh, and by 2020 this could drop below 4 c/kWh. Even at current prices, the combination of Powerpacks with wind or solar could deprive gas peaking plants any market over 18 c/kWh. So their is very little hope for profitability with for fossil generators and their fuels.

Their Dream scenario of 50% solar penetration is a deceptive nightmare. This rate of growth is a mere 13.3% per year over the next 35 years. The growth of solar over the last decade has been about 50%. At that rate, solar will get to their dream scenario is just 11 years. So if the dream comes a few decades sooner than 2050, this could be a real nightmare for all utility generators, fossil fuels and their investors. Good luck.

Yes they are seeing what is happening, but seriously underestimating how fast it will happen. This is not a slowly slowing freight train, this is a high speed train coming right at them.
 
No need for the condescending tone suggesting someone simply "sucks" at driving efficiently.

The EPA sticks a single average number - with identical driving behaviours, drivers in Vermont will be structurally below average and above average in California. Unfortunately, you don't get to choose your weather unless you relocate your life to be able to reach a better wh/mile.

Rated range may be very close to what you experience on average for your local weather, but it's not really possible in places that have 10cm of snow and -20C a few months of the year.

Nobody said "sucks." I said the average driving efficiency in the US is the rated range. If you are getting less than that, you are getting less than average efficiency. That's the definition of an average.

Further, you are accusing me of "condescension" in response to comments which called my comments, which are based entirely on the EPA's range estimate and not my own opinion by the way, "baloney" and "fantasyland?" I think perhaps you have directed your accusation towards the wrong comment.

And rated range is actually much *less* than what I expect to get from my car. I keep my car display on ideal range and when I try/need to hit it I can, and when I don't try to hit it I usually end up maybe 5-10% down (that's driving 70-80, AC on, not drafting, etc.).

I edited my previous comment btw with a link to one of Bjorn's videos where he gets 258mi range in extremely cold Norwegian weather (-6ºC), snow, and going through mountains. Thus, it is possible to squeeze range out of the car even in very difficult conditions. So I really don't understand what everyone's issue is, and all this stuff about expecting less than 70% of the rated miles. The only time I've ever had anything like that happen is when I took a car to a track.
 
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Please not this range discussion again in the TSLA thread.

FANGO, you know you hold a view that is unusual on this topic. Of course you could be right, and everyone else wrong. But is that likely? Us others here are not stupid people. Neither are you, but it's more likely that one person (you) is misjudging this particular issue than all the others at the same time!
 
So, some of you talkend about a 250 resistance. Thx for that hint.

Today, we saw it again.

So please can someone with knowledge explain, where this comes from, and why are there some special barriers, if broken several times, they conclude to this called resistance?

Thx
 
I bet TM regrets naming their cars after the energy storage spec. The elegant answer is to make Model X 70 and 85 "class" vehicles that match the Model S range (by quietly having more storage capacity, and pricing accordingly). But it will be super confusing to make X85D's that are actually 92kWh (or whatever). So if the Model X are "big and medium" packs like the model S, they can keep the rated range the same, or the kWh, but not both. So which will they move? It would have been more future proof to give them names or something.

I don't agree with this. As a tech person I love when things tell you a lot about what you are buying just in looking at the name of it. Many things about technology will tell you a lot about it in just the name... or at least used to... it is less so today. If they are going to do that, then they should ditch the references to those numbers altogether and come up with a different branding... because what I hate more than anything is when people take a name that should mean one thing, and use it as just a "versioning" or whatever and it doesn't actually hold that value. While this is likely to be the inverse of how it is normally done (ie 85 downplaying a 90kWh battery for example) I can't tell you how much I am still upset over the whole 4G lie, and how they continue to market it as a replacement for home high speed internet... (a rant for another thread I won't get into).

So just my 2 cents, keep the model names to include the battery size or don't... but if you remove it, take it out completely and come up with some other arbitrary naming standard.
 
chickensevil said:
So just my 2 cents, keep the model names to include the battery size or don't... but if you remove it, take it out completely and come up with some other arbitrary naming standard.

How about a new metric incorporating range and performance? For example just the model name Tesla Model S and then a subclassification like PD/265[EPA range]/1170[Nm of torque].
 
And rated range is actually much *less* than what I expect to get from my car. I keep my car display on ideal range and when I try/need to hit it I can, and when I don't try to hit it I usually end up maybe 5-10% down (that's driving 70-80, AC on, not drafting, etc.).

I edited my previous comment btw with a link to one of Bjorn's videos where he gets 258mi range in extremely cold Norwegian weather (-6ºC), snow, and going through mountains. Thus, it is possible to squeeze range out of the car even in very difficult conditions. So I really don't understand what everyone's issue is, and all this stuff about expecting less than 70% of the rated miles. The only time I've ever had anything like that happen is when I took a car to a track.

That's nice, but exactly the point - it's a national average. You can expect above average mileage/kwh in California. Over in other geographic locations, you should expect the below average mileage/kwh. As a related analogy, think about the national average amount heating required per home as X. You can certainly expect your home in California to be less than X, and someone in a cold climate to be above X... you're arguing the latter folks should still expect X as their expected heating.

-6 is a pretty warm day in winter by the way, and Bjorn's (awesome) videos aren't really meant to demonstrate average energy usage. This kind of logic taken to the extreme is like saying some guy has done 400 miles in a Model S therefore everyone should expect that as normal usage.

Sorry for going so off-topic, I'm happy to discuss this more in the appropriate thread.
 
Please not this range discussion again in the TSLA thread.

FANGO, you know you hold a view that is unusual on this topic. Of course you could be right, and everyone else wrong. But is that likely? Us others here are not stupid people. Neither are you, but it's more likely that one person (you) is misjudging this particular issue than all the others at the same time!

How is my view unusual? My view is that the average is the average, and that 300 = 300. This view squares with the EPA, Tesla's testing team, and the average of US drivers. It seems that the people disagreeing with me think that the average is not the average, and that 400 = 300. The average *is* usual - that's the definition of average.

Is it more likely that everyone - the EPA and the average of all drivers in the USA - is misjudging this issue (me), or that 3 or 4 people on the internet (the people arguing this idea that 400 = 300) are misjudging it?

So, you are probably correct, it is more likely that a few people on the internet are misjudging the issue than the EPA, Tesla's testing team, and the average of all US drivers. So, can we retire this discussion with your concession that the real world is actually the real world, and that the EPA numbers are correct? Because if not, then I guess the 3 or 4 of you who think otherwise are going to sue Tesla for lying to the EPA, as happened to Ford (and I think others) recently?
 
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How is my view unusual? My view is that the average is the average. It seems that the people disagreeing with me think that the average is not the average. The average *is* usual - that's the definition of average.

Is it more likely that everyone - the EPA and the average of all drivers in the USA - is misjudging this issue (my side), or that 3 or 4 people on the internet (the side of the people arguing with me) are misjudging it?

I concede that you and the EPA is correct.

But we are talking past eachother here.
We're not talking facts here, but emotions. That's what sells or doesn't sell cars: the average is far less interesting than the worst case.

So your misjudgment consists only of looking at the issue as a non issue, from objective and correct observations as opposed to how most people see it: they confuse a mathematical average, with a distribution and range, with an actual absolute number. And the number they want is some low cut off on the normally distributed rated range, not the medium or median value.

Range should actually be given like this: rated range 265 miles [95% confidence interval 180-310 miles and varies widely with conditions].
 
I concede that you and the EPA is correct.

But we are talking past eachother here.
We're not talking facts here, but emotions. That's what sells or doesn't sell cars: the average is far less interesting than the worst case.

So your misjudgment consists only of looking at the issue as a non issue, from objective and correct observations as opposed to how most people see it: they confuse a mathematical average, with a distribution and range, with an actual absolute number. And the number they want is some low cut off on the normally distributed rated range, not the medium or median value.

Range should actually be given like this: rated range 265 miles [95% confidence interval 180-310 miles and varies widely with conditions].

The comment I originally responded to claimed that "real world" range is 75% of what the EPA rating is, and that getting rated range was very difficult in his small experience driving the car. I countered that, no, the EPA rating is the EPA rating and that beating rated range is not difficult in my experience - in any car I've driven, highway or otherwise. Then people went nuts. I really do not understand why.

Anyway, the problem with that is that nobody knows what confidence intervals are, so it wouldn't work as a public facing issue. And those numbers aren't given that way for gas vehicles, either. Thing is, I suspect the same people who get horrible mileage in their S also get horrible mileage in their gas vehicles, but they don't notice because they don't have a nice big number right in front of them to fret about, which happens to charge up to the same number every morning when they get into the car. That's the way in which this is psychological, for some reason new EV drivers attach so much importance to range, and talk about it constantly, and ICE manufacturers are happy to let this happen because they want people to be worried about this as if it's some sort of thing unique to EVs, and to think that mileage varies more with EVs than it does with ICE vehicles.

But that's what Tesla's tool on their site was all about, showing how various behaviors affect efficiency. I thought this was a good learning tool, because it let people know that if you think you're not going to get somewhere, *just slow down a bit*. Unfortunately many of these comments show that some people took that tool to mean "look how terrible this car does in my conditions!" even though the same is true of any vehicle - snow, cold, heat, and high speeds make you less efficient.

This also follows the same maxim that must be remembered whenever reading internet reviews of any product - the only people complaining here are the people who, for whatever reason, drive less efficiently than the rest. The rest of people who have no problem with it naturally aren't going to bother complaining because there's nothing to complain about. The same has happened with many cars, the lawsuits for EPA mileage claims naturally will come from the people who are below average, because the ones above average have no reason to file a lawsuit, do they? And it's also interesting that these lawsuits happen more often with hybrids, which makes it seem to me that hybrid owners are more interested in MPG than most people, so they're more likely to notice this sort of thing, and their car is more likely to have the tools available to let them notice this type of thing.

Now, if you want to use a term other than "real world," and instead say "my minimum range under my personal worst possible driving conditions and where I don't do anything to mitigate that," then that's another thing entirely. But it would be silly for Tesla to publish efficiency numbers for each individual case. So instead they publish the average, using the standard EPA numbers and test protocol which are typically more conservative than any other rating agency I'm aware of and which are used on all cars so people can say "hm, well if I'm 10% less efficient than average on my current car then the same will probably apply to my EV." Which is entirely reasonable and based in the real world.

I do wish they hadn't taken down the "go electric" tool on the website though, that thing was super useful in so many ways.
 
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I don't agree with this. As a tech person I love when things tell you a lot about what you are buying just in looking at the name of it. Many things about technology will tell you a lot about it in just the name... or at least used to... it is less so today. If they are going to do that, then they should ditch the references to those numbers altogether and come up with a different branding... because what I hate more than anything is when people take a name that should mean one thing, and use it as just a "versioning" or whatever and it doesn't actually hold that value. While this is likely to be the inverse of how it is normally done (ie 85 downplaying a 90kWh battery for example) I can't tell you how much I am still upset over the whole 4G lie, and how they continue to market it as a replacement for home high speed internet... (a rant for another thread I won't get into).

So just my 2 cents, keep the model names to include the battery size or don't... but if you remove it, take it out completely and come up with some other arbitrary naming standard.

I think we are agreeing that they should have given them a name that wasn't associated with a spec. But yeah, TM won't make the spec a lie, they are too technical for that. But none of their options are pretty. Let's lay them out, shall we?

(Give me a pass on approximating ranges; don't quibble over D- non D ranges. Also, I am making a broad guess that the Model X is 15% less efficient than Model S and Model 3 will be 15% more efficient).

naming_table.JPG


Here you see the problem with continuing to name things based solely of the spec: The numbers get unruly and kind of meaningless since about 80kW means different things across vehicles. This is their current scheme and I think it will break soon.

They could attempt to do a sort of "range marketing name", which is nice and clear, but suffers from two problems. You have to have a US model that uses miles and a rest-of-world that uses KM. The second problem is the EPA changes their formula and their branding is ruined.

What I think they need to do is capitulate and create a alphebetism for range classes as shown. I just picked 4 nice sounding letters and show how you revamp the models. So I would say I have a Model SP-K (instead of a Model S P85). An X with an 265 "class" would be a Model XPD-K or whatever. I think it sounds perfectly nice, and it is completely extensible with new letters. It is a little more to remember, but the man on the street isn't going to know what the hell "P85D" means either.

Tesla you can just pay me via paypal. Send me a PM. :)
 
There is nothing wrong with Tesla continuing to name models after pack size. The market for these products is tech savvy. Luxury cars (BMW, MB) are commonly named after engine size and this doesn't seem to cause any problems. People shop for a 8GB iPhone vs a 16GB or 64GB and they understand the implications of the difference in storage for *that particular product* vs storage on an iPad or laptop.
 
But that's what Tesla's tool on their site was all about, showing how various behaviors affect efficiency. I thought this was a good learning tool, because it let people know that if you think you're not going to get somewhere, *just slow down a bit*. Unfortunately many of these comments show that some people took that tool to mean "look how terrible this car does in my conditions!" even though the same is true of any vehicle - snow, cold, heat, and high speeds make you less efficient.

ANYONE TRYING TO AVOID THIS OT DISCUSSION, THIS IS STRICTLY AN OT RESPONSE TO FANGO's COMMENT ABOUT MY EARLIER POST.

Fango, your last comment was directed at my earlier comment. Yes, I did mention some limited real world experience. but mostly I focused on the calculations I've done by using the tool that had been on Tesla's site. That is, I was using Tesla's information, not disputing it. Moreover, I do not, nor have I ever suggested here, that loss of range due to climate, driving speed, etc., are Tesla/EV specific realities of driving.

As to the information I got from Tesla and their website. First, Tesla talks about SuperCharging to 80% rather than waiting for a 100% charge, I'm willing to wait longer for 90%, but there's 10% of range lost right there after the first leg of a trip. That interactive tool on TM's site told me going from 65-70 mph dropped ~25 mile of range. I extrapolated the same for going from 70 to 75, for a 50 mile loss of range for real world driving speeds, as that's the speed I drive at for the bulk of the 500+ mile trip I've taken about 50 times in the past three years on I-95 on the East Coast. Tesla's tool also gave information about performance in various climates (which my memory is can be in the 50 mile range in temps I'm likely to encounter in Winter, and ~30 miles in the Summer). My small amount of personal experience showed me there are other variables to consider, I suspect wind is the biggest. I get the sense that for a full charge, it's not uncommon to lose 20-30 miles do to other factors, I suspect wind/elevation primarily... if I've got that wrong, and the consensus of those who drive the car is that there is never, or very rarely, a 20-30 mile range loss outside of the climate and vehicle speed factors I mentioned above, I'd be very pleased to discover I've got this wrong.

As to the EPA rated range. You keep referring to it as an average. It is an average of several specific testing conditions the EPA feels is reflective of real world conditions. It is, of course, not some average of actual driving results for a given car model based on all owners across the U.S., as your comments seem to portray it. No actual consumers are driving the miles reported in the numbers... my understanding is it's done by the vehicle manufacturers subject to audit by regulators. Having lived around the country, I have learned that different states have different cultures as to how much people drive over the speed limit in the real world. I don't know what the norm is in California, but the norm where I take my frequent 500+ mile drive is +5mph to slightly more. This is why I was estimating 75 mph performance.
 
There is nothing wrong with Tesla continuing to name models after pack size. The market for these products is tech savvy. Luxury cars (BMW, MB) are commonly named after engine size and this doesn't seem to cause any problems. People shop for a 8GB iPhone vs a 16GB or 64GB and they understand the implications of the difference in storage for *that particular product* vs storage on an iPad or laptop.

Problem is my 85kWh car never lets me access 85kWhs. Of course that is quite analogous to a 64Gb device - you don't truly get to access 64 Gigabytes of storage and the consumer understands and accepts this.
 
There is nothing wrong with Tesla continuing to name models after pack size. The market for these products is tech savvy. Luxury cars (BMW, MB) are commonly named after engine size and this doesn't seem to cause any problems. People shop for a 8GB iPhone vs a 16GB or 64GB and they understand the implications of the difference in storage for *that particular product* vs storage on an iPad or laptop.

The difference here is that TM is (with the Model S) attempting to spec 2 things, the kWh and range when we only care about the range. I mean, enthusiasts would want to know what their pack label is, for sure. But with the model X we see that the branding message will probably be about the range. So if they want 240/265 again, which makes sense, they will need to adjust their pack size. So that implies a Tesla Model X 81.25 and a Tesla Model X 101.67 to be a smart-alec and making up a number. Yes, they could round it as I did in the table but eventually the branding gets confusing.

Car range is a critical, critical spec. Way more than engine displacement, or digital storage capacity. The phone analogy might be one iphone that can make 2 hours of calls per month, and another that can make 4 hours of calls per month. You would *really* want to talk about that phone spec, and you wouldn't care about how much onboard flash was enabling it.

The other thing, is that TM might, at its own discretion, want to improve the product with more capacity. Maybe they try to enable the Model X 208mile class with a 80kWh battery. But they figure out that owners are getting less than that, so they quietly bump up new cars to be 83kWh. Or, they decide to improve anti-bricking reserve on model S in the same way, by quietly making the batteries 72kWh and 87kwH (Ignoring the fact they already do this, I don't recall the real numbers right now).
 
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