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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Not sure why this discussion about the definition of rated range is taking place in the Short Term TSLA movements thread...
What I would mention is, Tesla will make available at least one battery capacity bump for the Model S. It will be without warning; it will suddenly be there in the Design Studio, available to order, and there will probably be a redesigned main page for the site, a tweet and a Facebook page update. No-one who has ordered a car and is waiting for it should expect any warning of the change in available options. This is how Tesla operates, and it is well-explained elsewhere. Timing of this bump? Probably before EOY2015.
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If this were a thread appropriate for range discussions, I would take issue with this baloney, but since it's the TSLA stock price thread, I'll leave it as-is.
What I would mention is, Tesla will make available at least one battery capacity bump for the Model S. It will be without warning; it will suddenly be there in the Design Studio, available to order, and there will probably be a redesigned main page for the site, a tweet and a Facebook page update. No-one who has ordered a car and is waiting for it should expect any warning of the change in available options. This is how Tesla operates, and it is well-explained elsewhere. Timing of this bump? Probably before EOY2015.
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If this were a thread appropriate for range discussions, I would take issue with this baloney, but since it's the TSLA stock price thread, I'll leave it as-is.
chickensevil
Active Member
Two key things to keep in mind re-larger packs and Model X:
Elon has already stated in the past that it isn't a big deal for the X to have less range than the S since most SUVs have less range than their sedan counterparts... This is largely because SUVs are vastly less efficient than sedans due to the larger profile. That being said, I believe the reason for the 70D (and maybe a larger high end pack in the future) was because 208 rated range on a Sedan would have come out to less than 200 miles on the X and they don't want any numbers below 200. That 200 seems to be a decent sticking point for them at this point so I would expect the X 70D equivalent to come out at 210-220, maybe a little lower, but certainly above 200 miles. Again, it is for marketing reasons to keep this number over 200 at this point.
The other reason for larger packs was slightly touched on with the comment about 1000 cycles of a 400 mile pack vs 2000 cycles of a 200 mile pack, but it goes farther than that. A larger pack (by kWh) will equate to an ability to recharge on the bottom half of the pack faster with less risk of damage. Even if the range was higher while retaining the same amount of kWh (like some kind of efficiency gain) then you would still spend less time at the charger since you would gain back miles faster as you have more miles per kWh in the pack. Either way, if they want to get down to that sweet spot of stopping and charging for less than 20 minutes (I think around 15 is going to be the ideal sweet spot before you are good enough to get back on the road), then you are going to need to get more miles per minute of charge time. The easiest way to do this is up the kWh size of the pack as you can then pump more kW into the pack at a time (for those less familiar, the maximum safe charge rate is normally 2x the size of the pack. So a 60kWh pack shouldn't charge above 120, a 70 at 140, an 85 at 170 and so on... Even if you don't up the rate and it stays at 120kW on most superchargers, a larger pack can handle that 120kW for longer before it hits the limits and needs to taper, so you would still get a faster recharge on those lower SOC levels to ~50% charge than previously experienced.)
Anyway, For these two reasons, I would anticipate a somewhat larger pack to be released here in the future and to get rid of the 85 variant.
Elon has already stated in the past that it isn't a big deal for the X to have less range than the S since most SUVs have less range than their sedan counterparts... This is largely because SUVs are vastly less efficient than sedans due to the larger profile. That being said, I believe the reason for the 70D (and maybe a larger high end pack in the future) was because 208 rated range on a Sedan would have come out to less than 200 miles on the X and they don't want any numbers below 200. That 200 seems to be a decent sticking point for them at this point so I would expect the X 70D equivalent to come out at 210-220, maybe a little lower, but certainly above 200 miles. Again, it is for marketing reasons to keep this number over 200 at this point.
The other reason for larger packs was slightly touched on with the comment about 1000 cycles of a 400 mile pack vs 2000 cycles of a 200 mile pack, but it goes farther than that. A larger pack (by kWh) will equate to an ability to recharge on the bottom half of the pack faster with less risk of damage. Even if the range was higher while retaining the same amount of kWh (like some kind of efficiency gain) then you would still spend less time at the charger since you would gain back miles faster as you have more miles per kWh in the pack. Either way, if they want to get down to that sweet spot of stopping and charging for less than 20 minutes (I think around 15 is going to be the ideal sweet spot before you are good enough to get back on the road), then you are going to need to get more miles per minute of charge time. The easiest way to do this is up the kWh size of the pack as you can then pump more kW into the pack at a time (for those less familiar, the maximum safe charge rate is normally 2x the size of the pack. So a 60kWh pack shouldn't charge above 120, a 70 at 140, an 85 at 170 and so on... Even if you don't up the rate and it stays at 120kW on most superchargers, a larger pack can handle that 120kW for longer before it hits the limits and needs to taper, so you would still get a faster recharge on those lower SOC levels to ~50% charge than previously experienced.)
Anyway, For these two reasons, I would anticipate a somewhat larger pack to be released here in the future and to get rid of the 85 variant.
chickensevil
Active Member
Not usually... there is some nice things in there to chew on in previous years, but nothing that normally seems to really change much. I'm sure the bears will find something in there to gripe about, but they seem satisfied with fighting over this new line of credit Tesla just got approved.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Usually they just regurgitate the Risks section of the filing... which is kind of like. DUH Tesla wrote it.
Dougherty Sheds Light on Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA)s $500 Revolving Credit Agreement - Smarter Analyst
(Never heard of All The Financial News You Can Trust - Smarter Analyst so I can't vouch for the source)
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, pointing out a risk in the SEC filing as if this is some great new discovery is kinda silly. If Tesla hadn't published the risk they would have likely never considered it in the first place... but because Tesla listed it as a "possibility" it must mean the sky is falling, right?
About the price action, I get the feeling this is likely related to the line of credit taken out more than anything, as people are afraid this means Tesla is having a problem that they didn't tell anyone... Gee if every time someone got a credit card that meant that they were in for trouble, no one would ever get anything done around here. Even if they start using the credit right now and totally max it out, most likely the pay off of that 500-750M$ being invested today will be better than them waiting to do that until tomorrow. Ever bought stock/options on Margin? You are essentially doing the same thing...
Tesla Model 3 Portfolio to Include Sedan, Crossover
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 7:25 AM ET 6/15/15
Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Chief Technical Officer JB Straubel said Monday the company's upcoming Model 3 electric vehicle project will result in the creation of both a sedan and crossover vehicle, helping push the Silicon Valley company's sales toward 500,000 annually by the end of the decade.
Mr. Straubel, speaking at the EIA Energy Conference in Washington DC, said the company is also planning for "cars beyond" the Model 3 portfolio, and said Tesla expects costs for battery technology to fall in coming years, enabling lower-priced electric cars and fueling rising demand.
The disclosure comes as Tesla is forecasting strong growth the 2020, and spending billions of dollars to expand a lineup that currently includes one sedan--the Model S. Later this year, Tesla plans to launch its Model X crossover vehicle in a move that could help the company meet its 2015 sales target.
The Model S and Model X are on current-generation technology, which has been under development for several years and underpins the bulk of the 60,000 cars the company has sold since its founding in 2003. The Model 3 will be based on a so-called third generation platform.
Mr. Straubel expects the Model 3 to launch in 2017 and be priced near $35,000, with 200-miles worth of range on the battery. He said lithium-ion batteries "will become the predominant and primary fuel for light vehicles," displacing the internal combustion engine.
The Model 3 will debut at the time several other auto makers, including General Motors Co., launch similarly priced and similarly capable electric cars.
"That is the spot where we see mass market adoption taking off," Mr. Straubel said.
"Conservatively, there is a market for at least a half million for these types of vehicle annually," he said.
He said there is no foreseen constraint on lithium-ion supply, but there needs to be more refining capacity.
sub
Active Member
Not to keep the discussion going but I wanted to add my opinion on the range. 200-210 miles range would be a turn off to me, it's the reason I never considered the S60. Why did they get rid of the 60? Because the order numbers were very low. You can call it Psychology and that 200 miles is plenty but it will turn people off. I think matching at least the 70D range is what they need to do.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Rated range *is* real world range. That's why the rating exists. If you get worse than it, it's because you drive in an inefficient manner. The number on the sticker is the average.
I have zero problem beating rated range, and in fact I find it difficult to do worse than rated range. I can beat ideal range when trying. It's not difficult.
So no, 400 does not mean 300. 300 means 300.
Not everyone lives in Fantasyland.
chickensevil
Active Member
Originally Posted by FANGO
Rated range *is* real world range. That's why the rating exists. If you get worse than it, it's because you drive in an inefficient manner. The number on the sticker is the average.
I have zero problem beating rated range, and in fact I find it difficult to do worse than rated range. I can beat ideal range when trying. It's not difficult.
So no, 400 does not mean 300. 300 means 300.
Not everyone lives in Fantasyland.
I'm not understanding the difficulty in achieving the rated range... Driving at 70MPH or slower and generally you can hit rated or better. 75 also possible, depending... but generally you will be slightly over. This is of course assuming 19" wheels... with 21's all bets are off, but you should have known that going into 21's. The only times I notice I can't beat rated is in the cold (sub 45 degrees and it starts to get harder and harder) and if you have a significant amount of weight in the car... but again, these should already be well known by now. So for 9 months out of the year (I live in VA where it does occasionally get cold and snow), I can meet or handily exceed the rated numbers. And it should be noted that it isn't flat here... it is quite hilly... so going 70MPH in the spring/summer/fall, with 2 passengers, AC on, going up and down hills, and STILL meeting/beating rated... it is *not* fantasyland and there is a lot of leeway in the rated numbers. For example today, that was the exact situation coming in to work, and I arrived at 290wh/mi. So FANGO's statement about not driving in an inefficient manner is very on point... because when I get impatient and drive aggressively making the *same* trip, under nearly identical circumstances, it will blow my numbers up beyond 310. Amazing how driving calmly makes a world of difference in efficiencies (and really doesn't change your arrival times).
MartinAustin
Active Member
I think this will work well for TSLA, since it points to expansion in production and scope. JB first said this in 2013, so it's not brand new, but it is worth re-stating every once in a while. The Model S and Model X are on the "Gen2 platform."
JB Straubel | Energy@Stanford SLAC 2013 - YouTube
It even says "Tesla Gen III Sedan & Crossover" right there on the slide.
I'd be very happy to hear that my personal experience is an outlier, but it's quite closer to what Tesla had on the website for changing speed and climate than meeting rated range.
The times I tested out our car, I got 70-75% of rated range driving 75 mph on cruise control. There were some modest changes in elevation, the temp was in the 50s-60s, fan on one time, not the other and carrying only me (165 pounds). Car is an extremely early P85 with 21" tires, so maybe those are impacting my results. The information on the website suggested a 5-10 mile penalty for 21" tires, so 2-4%, over the course of a full charge. I didn't check the pressure in the tires at the time of the tests, so perhaps they were not optimal.
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fun Elon retweet and follow up tweets likely to lead to some articles
Elon Musk retweeted
Announcing the @SpaceX Hyperloop Pod Competition http://www.spacex.com/hyperloop
- Elon Musk @elonmusk 22m22 minutes ago
To be clear, SpaceX is supporting a student design competition for STEM, not trying to build Hyperloop itself. Other cos are doing latter.
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Elon Musk @elonmusk 32m32 minutes ago
SpaceX/Tesla will also do a reference pod to be shown after the @Hyperloop competition. Bonus for all racing teams that exceed reference.
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chickensevil
Active Member
and how new were the tires? cause I think that likely makes a bit of difference too... Really, you shouldn't expect to get rated even going 70MPH, 65 constant is the closer comparison (as shown by Tesla's own graphs) and every time you up your speed by 5MPH makes a huge difference. Consider the 55 - 65 mark showing 300+ to 265 that is almost 40 miles difference in that 10MPH span, and going up to 75 is going to be an even bigger hit. And that isn't unique to Tesla. Drive your Mercedes at 55 vs 65 vs 75 and you will see big differences in your range as well. The reason it is less noticeable is because at 55 you can go like 400+ miles and at 75 you can go 300+ miles both of which are way over the amount a normal person would really want to drive in one stretch without stopping. The Tesla, however, is at that threshold of I could stop, but could also keep going when each leg is about 120-150 miles apart. Which brings it full circle on why a slightly longer range car will eliminate that stigma, because once you get it up high enough, combined with around a 15 minute recharge time for 200+ miles and no one will care anymore (or the people who do will be an insignificant minority. It is about overcoming the psychological barriers, which is what I think the 70D shows more than anything... sure 208 miles is good, but 240 miles is better... add in dual motors and it is a nobrainer to pay the extra 5k.
Yeah, I don't understand why this would be new news......most of us knew this. This headline makes it seem like it's something new, so obviously the analysts don't follow the company close enough.
Sorry to keep this 'off topic' but I had to set the rcord straight on range. There is NO way you will get rated miles driving sedately in a situation where you have temperatures below 50 degrees on a regular basis (ex winter in Delaware). Several forum members who live in even colder climates have told me that they are lucky to get 180 miles on a full charge with their 85 packs when their daily highs are in the 20-30 F range.
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