Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[schonelucht]

Note also the 10 GW of "Controllable Charge Load". Considering the audience, this is signaling an interest in selling aggregated control of charging to utilities. The math is simple. 1 million cars need 10 kWh per day and if the utilities support it, they can each charge at 10 kW or higher. So this is daily demand for 10 GWh and can provide 10 GW of load. This is like being able to absorb the load of 10 nuclear power plants. It has the potential to preserve the value of baseload generation assets for utilities. So if utilities want to play, policymakers can accomodate. This would give Tesla and Tesla owners an additional revenue stream to offset the cost of EV ownership. Try to imagine a financial product whereby the value of this revenue stream would flow to Tesla in such a way that the upfront sticker price could be reduced. Perhaps this could knock off about $1000 off the price of the car. This sort of thing could make a real difference as we move into Gen 3 economics.

Well there is also some sort of pilot going in the Netherlands. Tesla owners can opt in for a program where the utility controls charging of their car overnight in 15 minute blocks. Correspondingly they get a rebate on electricity consumed during that period. Unfortunately since the charging protocols between car and charger aren't developed enough this can only be accomplished by giving the utility the login to your remote Tesla. But it does show there is an active interest from utilities.

If the grid could signal desired charging rate and could query cars how much supplemental load they can still absorb, it would go very far in helping power distributors manage grid wide fluctuations without having vehicle to grid capabilities (which, I think, car manufacturers are not interested in due to the extra strain on their battery)

 

[schonelucht]

That range statement is unsourced and flat wrong.

Why is wrong?

 

[Cattledog]

Well there is also some sort of pilot going in the Netherlands. Tesla owners can opt in for a program where the utility controls charging of their car overnight in 15 minute blocks. Correspondingly they get a rebate on electricity consumed during that period. Unfortunately since the charging protocols between car and charger aren't developed enough this can only be accomplished by giving the utility the login to your remote Tesla. But it does show there is an active interest from utilities.

If the grid could signal desired charging rate and could query cars how much supplemental load they can still absorb, it would go very far in helping power distributors manage grid wide fluctuations without having vehicle to grid capabilities (which, I think, car manufacturers are not interested in due to the extra strain on their battery)

I would love for Tesla to reveal these types of programs in their shareholder letter or conference call. It would have a catalyzing effect on the share price.

 

[Papafox]

We're less than two weeks away now before Tesla releases Q2 delivery numbers. I expect good numbers because:
1) Q2 is one week longer than Q1
2) Tesla has good weather in which to deliver end of quarter cars
3) While watching my 70D get built this quarter I noticed wait times decreasing instead of increasing, for the most part
4) Some locations such as Toronto are seeing large numbers of Teslas on the property with enough time to prep them and get them out the door prior to end of quarter: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/45713-New-tesla-70D-owner!/page50
5) In a few quarters of 2014, Tesla reduced store/service center inventory to help reach delivery numbers. In Q1, Tesla nicely restocked inventory. Thus, those cars have been available for sales in Q2 and Q2 has been a lively quarter for sales, due to 70D intro and autopilot features. Q2 does not require the same type of restocking that took place in Q1, leading to an opportunity for production and delivery numbers to be closer to each other than in the previous quarter.

We're likely to see Tesla stay on track with bringing the Model X configuration and pricing online in July. If configuration is going to be offered on the Tesla website, then it makes sense for Tesla to have a reveal event which highlights the cool features of the middle row of seats plus other surprises. This will create buzz and an influx of orders.

Bottom line: I remain bullish for upward stock price movement through these two events.

 

[30seconds]

Well there is also some sort of pilot going in the Netherlands. Tesla owners can opt in for a program where the utility controls charging of their car overnight in 15 minute blocks. Correspondingly they get a rebate on electricity consumed during that period. Unfortunately since the charging protocols between car and charger aren't developed enough this can only be accomplished by giving the utility the login to your remote Tesla. But it does show there is an active interest from utilities.

If the grid could signal desired charging rate and could query cars how much supplemental load they can still absorb, it would go very far in helping power distributors manage grid wide fluctuations without having vehicle to grid capabilities (which, I think, car manufacturers are not interested in due to the extra strain on their battery)

If this works it should be easy enough for tesla to develop a separate login credential for the utility and limit access to charge control only

 

[hobbes]

One more piece of info pointing to good numbers coming from Europe: Norway is at 384 registrations in June as of today, even a few more than in March with a week till end of month (March ended up at 1140!). And for the first two months of Q2 we are more than 800 registrations ahead of Q1 for Europe as a whole. (For details see EU thread and wiki)

We're less than two weeks away now before Tesla releases Q2 delivery numbers. I expect good numbers because:
1) Q2 is one week longer than Q1
2) Tesla has good weather in which to deliver end of quarter cars
3) While watching my 70D get built this quarter I noticed wait times decreasing instead of increasing, for the most part
4) Some locations such as Toronto are seeing large numbers of Teslas on the property with enough time to prep them and get them out the door prior to end of quarter: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/45713-New-tesla-70D-owner!/page50
5) In a few quarters of 2014, Tesla reduced store/service center inventory to help reach delivery numbers. In Q1, Tesla nicely restocked inventory. Thus, those cars have been available for sales in Q2 and Q2 has been a lively quarter for sales, due to 70D intro and autopilot features. Q2 does not require the same type of restocking that took place in Q1, leading to an opportunity for production and delivery numbers to be closer to each other than in the previous quarter.

We're likely to see Tesla stay on track with bringing the Model X configuration and pricing online in July. If configuration is going to be offered on the Tesla website, then it makes sense for Tesla to have a reveal event which highlights the cool features of the middle row of seats plus other surprises. This will create buzz and an influx of orders.

Bottom line: I remain bullish for upward stock price movement through these two events.

 

[mrdoubleb]

One more piece of info pointing to good numbers coming from Europe: Norway is at 384 registrations in June as of today, even a few more than in March with a week till end of month (March ended up at 1140!). And for the first two months of Q2 we are more than 800 registrations ahead of Q1 for Europe as a whole. (For details see EU thread and wiki)

In all of the instances before where delivery numbers were so-so, we kind of "knew" in advance, something was wrong. When the factory enhancement got longer than planned last August and impacted q3, when the port strike, seat issues and bad weather hit q4, TMC had bits and pieces of info on it so we were not that shocked.

This time, though, no news or rumor of any kind of hick up, so that in itself indicates we should at least meet the forecast.

 

[TSLAopt]

One more piece of info pointing to good numbers coming from Europe: Norway is at 384 registrations in June as of today, even a few more than in March with a week till end of month (March ended up at 1140!). And for the first two months of Q2 we are more than 800 registrations ahead of Q1 for Europe as a whole. (For details see EU thread and wiki)

Lets not get all hyped up...I've been here long enough to see that on this forum we usually get carried away and more of us than not each quarter putting together cases of how delivery numbers will be beat each quarter...most of us are investors in TSLA so we have that conflict of interest of wanting to believe our investments are good ones and so we want to believe the delivery numbers are going to be better than 'expected' every quarter (The Street seems to 'expect' a slight beat to delivery each quarter for the most part)

some quarters we're right and some quarters we've been wrong, no more than a coin flip in my opinion. Elon is now one to sandbag goals...especially public goals I've learned...just finished reading the new book on him and it's also a common theme in there that he publicly sets goals almost impossible to reach knowingly that all his employees would have to work super hard with no unexpected hiccups to meet those goals, whichalmost never happens.

Posters above make make good points, but I just want to be the dose of reality here that every quarter posters on here make good points as to why there will bea beat or blowout quarter in deliveries (I have been guilty of this too in the past).

we have been wrong as much as we have been right and I see know difference this quarter vs past quarters projections we make

reality says flip a coin

 

[FredTMC]

What time of day was the Baird report yesterday? Was $335 PT an upgrade or not?

tia.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Lets not get all hyped up...I've been here long enough to see that on this forum we usually get carried away and more of us than not each quarter putting together cases of how delivery numbers will be beat each quarter...most of us are investors in TSLA so we have that conflict of interest of wanting to believe our investments are good ones and so we want to believe the delivery numbers are going to be better than 'expected' every quarter (The Street seems to 'expect' a slight beat to delivery each quarter for the most part)

some quarters we're right and some quarters we've been wrong, no more than a coin flip in my opinion. Elon is now one to sandbag goals...especially public goals I've learned...just finished reading the new book on him and it's also a common theme in there that he publicly sets goals almost impossible to reach knowingly that all his employees would have to work super hard with no unexpected hiccups to meet those goals, whichalmost never happens.

Posters above make make good points, but I just want to be the dose of reality here that every quarter posters on here make good points as to why there will bea beat or blowout quarter in deliveries (I have been guilty of this too in the past).

we have been wrong as much as we have been right and I see know difference this quarter vs past quarters projections we make

reality says flip a coin

I generally agree with your word of caution, BUT for Europe we always have hard numbers, facts. Most countries (not mine, damn you bureucracy!) publish their actual new car registration data online, every month and some our more diligent TMCers go out and collect it every time.

Now we do have some guesstimates, like the UK and of course China is unknown, anecdotal. For the US, it appears that some of the firms are getting better at their projections so we usually take a lower-end estimate for that in the preditction threads. All in all, while there is some educated guessing going on, it's not exactly a flip of the coin. We go back and compare our Q2 known numbers with same time last year and predict trajectory by looking at Q1 facts compared to Q1 last year in the posts I've seen, so I'd give much more credit to the community.

 

[hobbes]

I generally agree with your word of caution, BUT for Europe we always have hard numbers, facts. Most countries (not mine, damn you bureucracy!) publish their actual new car registration data online, every month and some our more diligent TMCers go out and collect it every time.

Now we do have some guesstimates, like the UK and of course China is unknown, anecdotal. For the US, it appears that some of the firms are getting better at their projections so we usually take a lower-end estimate for that in the preditction threads. All in all, while there is some educated guessing going on, it's not exactly a flip of the coin. We go back and compare our Q2 known numbers with same time last year and predict trajectory by looking at Q1 facts compared to Q1 last year in the posts I've seen, so I'd give much more credit to the community.

+1 Well said. Let´s go with "educated coin flipping" . Every prediction has some margin of error, that doesn´t mean that it is not worth making predicitons at all. For making investment decisions, one has to be very much aware of that possible error though.

 

[hobbes]

Prediction competition Q1 2015

As there´s not much news today to discuss, I set up a poll for a prediction competition just for Q1 (still soo long to wait for the all-year 2015 competition´s results):

Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

 

[Lump]

WSJ Heard on the Street,
Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors - WSJ

(copy & paste "Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors" in Google to get behind paywall)

How smoothly that launch goes will have a significant impact on the rate at which Tesla continues to burn cash. A successful launch could mean a cash outflow of $1 billion over the final three quarters of 2015, according to Morgan Stanley’s estimates. But should the Model X stumble out of the gate, the cash burn could exceed $1.5 billion. In the gloomier scenario, Tesla likely would end 2015 with less than $1 billion in available liquidity, even as it looks set to outspend cash flow again next year.
That is what makes Tesla’s sky-high stock price such a tempting prospect—for the company to sell. Assume that Tesla were to issue stock at a steep discount of roughly 25% to the current market price, or at $200 apiece. This would raise $750 million in gross proceeds, while putting only 3.75 million new shares into the market, equal to just 3% of Tesla’s diluted shares outstanding at the end of March. The minimal dilution isn’t a bonus in this instance but a mark of overvaluation for a cash-hungry company.
Faced with such math, why wouldn’t Tesla capitalize on the market’s enthusiasm to fund its ambitions and issue even more? It can’t assume such buoyant conditions will last indefinitely, even if investors right now seem to be pricing in exactly that.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

WSJ Heard on the Street,
Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors - WSJ

(copy & paste "Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors" in Google to get behind paywall)

This article is vague, and has no substance. The entire article is the author speculating that Tesla might decide to raise additional capital via a stock offering, based on the authors assumption that Tesla's stock is expensive.

"Faced with such math, why wouldn’t Tesla capitalize on the market’s enthusiasm to fund its ambitions and issue even more? It can’t assume such buoyant conditions will last indefinitely, even if investors right now seem to be pricing in exactly that."

 

[SteveG3]

WSJ Heard on the Street,
Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors - WSJ

(copy & paste "Tesla’s Need for Cash Should Cow Investors" in Google to get behind paywall)

this statement, on which the whole thesis of the article from the WSJ rests, is false as I understand it from Tesla management's repeated comments:

"Tesla likely would end 2015 with less than $1 billion in available liquidity, even as it looks set to outspend cash flow again next year."

The article seems nothing other than a hit piece on Tesla in keeping with the bulk of the Wall Street Journal's past output on Tesla. They are somewhat more subtle than the pack at Seeking Alpha (which is saying next to nothing), but they are remarkably consistent in trying to create false negative impressions about Tesla.

 

[hobbes]

TSLA 1% up in Frankfurt and German index DAX up 2,7% after Greece turned in a offer for reforms. Tonight is a new round of negotiations. Would be great if this was finally resolved...

 

[chickensevil]

this statement, on which the whole thesis of the article from the WSJ rests, is false as I understand it from Tesla management's repeated comments:

"Tesla likely would end 2015 with less than $1 billion in available liquidity, even as it looks set to outspend cash flow again next year."

The article seems nothing other than a hit piece on Tesla in keeping with the bulk of the Wall Street Journal's past output on Tesla. They are somewhat more subtle than the pack at Seeking Alpha (which is saying next to nothing), but they are remarkably consistent in trying to create false negative impressions about Tesla.

To add, even if there was a minor concern about them running out of money before they start to get that cash flow shot in the arm they are expecting, they basically solved that issue with their line of credit they just got. I just don't see a capital raise unless the Model X is a total flop... to the point where they have to do like a massive redesign after release and sink a ton of extra cash and time into making it right. But I would put the chance of that happening at less than 5%. I would give it around a 20% chance that the X is just so-so (won't hurt things too bad because the S will certainly continue to float the company while they make some improvements to the X to make it more appealing, and there will certainly still be *some* amount of X sales even with a so-so product because people are already very brand loyal to Tesla). I would give a 75% chance to the X blowing it out of the park and becoming the next big thing.

So then the chances of a capital raise of very, very small indeed.

 

[stealthology]

This being passed around trading desks, the reasons for the spike lower this morning:
Tesla Motors: Model 3 Pushed Back To 2018

Article claims there's a slide from a recent Tesla presentation saying the Model 3 is "planned for 2018"

 

[The Blue Owl]

The swings in TSLA this morning are very odd.

 

[chickensevil]

This being passed around trading desks, the reasons for the spike lower this morning:
Tesla Motors: Model 3 Pushed Back To 2018

Article claims there's a slide from a recent Tesla presentation saying the Model 3 is "planned for 2018"

Which we all saw, it was the slides from JB's presentation a couple weeks ago. This could mean many different things. "volume production" or just a more conservative number? who knows? I don't think anyone should be shocked for a small pushback on the Model 3, but I will say what I said previously, Panasonic has voiced that they are holding Tesla's feet to the fire on a release date for the Model 3 since they want to see an ROI on their investment of the Gigafactory. So unless the Gigafactory itself is delayed as the stated reason for the delay in the Model 3, I can't see Panasonic letting Tesla get away with a pushback here.

Also, with other brands tentatively releasing their cars in 2016/2017... the longer Tesla delays, the worse it is going to be from that perspective.