Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[anon]

Oh, and the Tesla hit 60 mph in three and a half seconds.

That's a bit disappointing!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Doh! /facepalm... Thanks for that correction... I always get the selling of puts vs calls mixed up in my head on the P/L... which is mostly why I stay away from them... Stick to what I am comfortable with.

Ditto here. :redface:

 

[Causalien]

Well, it looks like the number has already been leaked. But we already know that last month now didn't we?

 

[aznt1217]

Well, it looks like the number has already been leaked. But we already know that last month now didn't we?

Where?

 

[Joel]

Well, it looks like the number has already been leaked. But we already know that last month now didn't we?

Link?

 

[ibcs]

Well, it looks like the number has already been leaked. But we already know that last month now didn't we?

Are you saying that because of the dip today from 12 PM until 2 PM today?

 

[Causalien]

No link from me. I am never serious. I mean who would believe that my crystal ball (which is linked to my mood) is actually making the stock rise.

 

[hockeythug]

Does that Mark Spiegel guy just rant about Tesla all day everyday ?

 

[ibcs]

Inside EV's is reporting April - 1,700, May - 2,400 and June - 2,800 in the U.S.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[dha]

Does that Mark Spiegel guy just rant about Tesla all day everyday ?

Yes he does, it's pretty insane. I can't imagine the sort of person who would invest in a fund managed by somebody so unprofessional and possibly deranged.

 

[ibcs]

Anyone have the numbers for 2nd quarter sales out of the US? I know a thread exists for that information.

 

[chickensevil]

Inside EV's is reporting April - 1,700, May - 2,400 and June - 2,800 in the U.S.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Of note:

That being said, we figure Tesla sold a substantial 2,800 copies of the Model S in North America for June. Bringing the quarterly total here to about 6,900 units. Heading into April, Tesla put sales guidance of 10,000 to 11,000 EVs sold overall for the 2nd quarter.
As best we can calculate from registrations, no more than 2,100 plug-in sedans at best were sold in Europe through April and May; but from what we can tell the company did a rare “Euro-push” in the last couple days of June to easily beat previous efforts and topple the low end of its guidance target. On top of these sales of course is the numbers from Asia, unfortunately those reports have been fairly unreliable; we do however feel they are fairly insignificant in Q2 – perhaps between 500 and 1,000 units.

We aren’t really in the predicting business, but if we were, we think Tesla edged out guidance in Q2 easily by more than a few hundred units.

 

[ZenMan]

Here's my math:

North America: 6,900 (Inside EV's)
Europe: (818 April / 1064 May / 1500 June from Europe 2015 spreadsheet on TMC) 3,382
Asia: 1,000
ROW: 0 - 500
Total 11,200 - 11,500. Handily beat guidance of 10,500.

 

[pGo]

So, this is what we have:

6900 - US (Inside EV was the most accurate last Q)
1882 - EU (Apr - May)
920 - EU (June - Norway - surprisingly lower number, Austria, Netherlands)
1000 - Asia (lowball prediction)

We're at 10702 with other EU numbers yet to report. I think Tesla will beat guidance of 10-11K. It won't be a HUGE beat though. That's how I am playing next 10 days.

 

[luca]

1500 June from Europe?

should be around 2000

check March number

Here's my math:

North America: 6,900 (Inside EV's)
Europe: (818 April / 1064 May / 1500 June from Europe 2015 spreadsheet on TMC) 3,382
Asia: 1,000
ROW: 0 - 500
Total 11,200 - 11,500. Handily beat guidance of 10,500.

 

[Joel]

1500 June from Europe?

should be around 2000

check March number

He's going off this wiki: Europe 2015 Model S sales - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

 

[Crowded Mind]

So, this is what we have:

6900 - US (Inside EV was the most accurate last Q)
1882 - EU (Apr - May)
920 - EU (June - Norway - surprisingly lower number, Austria, Netherlands)
1000 - Asia (lowball prediction)

We're at 10702 with other EU numbers yet to report. I think Tesla will beat guidance of 10-11K. It won't be a HUGE beat though. That's how I am playing next 10 days.

Does Inside EV report U.S. or North America? I remember a debate about that but can't remember the conclusion. If they are only reporting U.S. then there would be more upside that's not included in your numbers. Either way it looks like we should be higher than the mid-point of guidance pretty easily.

 

[pGo]

Does Inside EV report U.S. or North America? I remember a debate about that but can't remember the conclusion. If they are only reporting U.S. then there would be more upside that's not included in your numbers. Either way it looks like we should be higher than the mid-point of guidance pretty easily.

Inside EV reports North America sales.

 

[hobbes]

Here's my math:

North America: 6,900 (Inside EV's)
Europe: (818 April / 1064 May / 1500 June from Europe 2015 spreadsheet on TMC) 3,382
Asia: 1,000
ROW: 0 - 500
Total 11,200 - 11,500. Handily beat guidance of 10,500.

While the other numbers are, 1500 June for Europe is not on the spreadsheet I know...
1062 at the moment (only 4 countries reported though). So 1500 is your estimate, right?

 

[cluster]

North America: 6,900
Europe: 1882(April and May)+1800(June)=3682
Asia and ROW: 1,000
total: 11582


2014 Q2 deliveries: 7579
50%-55% growth: 11368-11747

To beat first half of 2015 delivery goal, we will need: 55000*40%-10045=11955