InsideEVs was not most accurate last quarter. The results for last quarter were 5500 cars delivered in NA, which works out to 5103 cars in the US when we subtract 397 in Canada for Q1. Last quarter, InsideEVs projected Tesla sales of 4700 cars in NA, or 4303 cars in the US when subtracting the official Canada number. Hybrid EVs, on the other hand, projected 4900 deliveries. 4900 is a lot closer to 5103 than 4303.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
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InsideEVs was not most accurate last quarter. The results for last quarter were 5500 cars delivered in NA, which works out to 5103 cars in the US when we subtract 397 in Canada for Q1. Last quarter, InsideEVs projected Tesla sales of 4700 cars in NA, or 4303 cars in the US when subtracting the official Canada number. Hybrid EVs, on the other hand, projected 4900 deliveries. 4900 is a lot closer to 5103 than 4303.
RobStark
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Greece debt crisis: PM Tsipras defiant as bank controls bite
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33353521
The notion that Tsipras caved and an agreement will be reached soon is a bit premature.
MartinAustin
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IMO InsideEVs should not be publishing guesswork for their numbers, now that Tesla Motors are announcing the real figures so soon. perhaps during first and second months of a quarter, but not after the 3rd month, since the real figures come out so soon. I think they must be doing it to get clicks. I notice they didn't publish guesswork for Ford Fusion, Chevy Spark and some other cars...
Anyone got any ideas why the initial boost to TSLA didn't hold today? $272 would have been nice.
Anyone got any ideas why the initial boost to TSLA didn't hold today? $272 would have been nice.
jhm
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Toyota Mirai Tops the 300 Mile Range Milestone - Analyst Blog
Ok, time for Tesla to roll out the 100D and put the Toyota Mirai in its place.
Ok, time for Tesla to roll out the 100D and put the Toyota Mirai in its place.
chickensevil
Active Member
Because 1: Tesla sales are a significant portion of EV sales overall (even before we were number 1)
2: All the other manufacturers with exception of one (Fiat I believe it is) actually provide those numbers monthly (Fiat is also a speculated number based on them pulling data from people claiming state incentives... So Tesla is not the only one...)
3: They have been guessworking Tesla numbers since 2012... I would hardly say they are doing it for clicks, except for now Tesla is on top... so of course it makes sense to make them in the headline... Except they aren't actually in the headline, just one of the early paragraphs... so not sure where you get they are going for clicks?
4: Tesla's numbers still do not separate NA from the rest of the world, so although we are getting the numbers shortly after the end of the quarter, they are still not published monthly and still not broken out by region... so it makes sense for insideEVs to continue to do their best at guessing the numbers.
jhm
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Inside EVs has concluded that Tesla Model S sales for this summer have slumped! How did they arrive at this conclusion?
"If you look ahead to Tesla’s production schedule guidance given to Model S customers for this summer, there seems to be a huge void for production/deliveries in July and August. Why? Think Model X. We expect the Model X online configurator to come online in a couple weeks, and production not too much later…although that is really jejune to this Model S sales report.
What is important is that Tesla delivered a lot of Model S sedans in North America in June before what appears to be an extended lull beginning in the second half of July while the company focuses on getting the Model X production online."
"If you look ahead to Tesla’s production schedule guidance given to Model S customers for this summer, there seems to be a huge void for production/deliveries in July and August. Why? Think Model X. We expect the Model X online configurator to come online in a couple weeks, and production not too much later…although that is really jejune to this Model S sales report.
What is important is that Tesla delivered a lot of Model S sedans in North America in June before what appears to be an extended lull beginning in the second half of July while the company focuses on getting the Model X production online."
I believe their premise is that TM will poorly execute bringing line #2 up as they taper line #1 down. In addition, they are missing the point that happens each quarter with production in the first 1/3 to 1/2 of the quarter going towards filling European/Asian/Aussie orders. IIRC, TM is just about or has just recently started right steering wheel production.
I don't feel TM will have issues with the second line ramp but it is the only issue I see on the horizon that could be an issue/negative catalyst.
Tesla Delivers ~17,400 Model S Sedans In North America - We Got It Right. Again
Well they were the closest predictors in 2014 and they amazingly got the final figure right.
Agreed its anyone's guess but that's what we are trying to do here in the absence of material news from Tesla.
July delivery came and gone for US in about 10 or so days. More info on website wait time thread.
[CORRECTIONS]
Actually, they weren't even the closest predictors in 2014 either [Sorry, they were, I was wrong]. Hybrid Cars was [not]. Hybrid Cars said 16,550 [Actually 16,750] for the US, and the official number for Canada in 2014 was 847 cars. InsideEVs projected about 17,300 cars for NA, and if we subtract the official Canadian number, they projected 16,453 cars in the US in 2014. The actual was 17,410 for North America, and 16,563 cars for the US (subtracted official Canadian number). So in 2014, both of them came very close, and Hybrid Cars just a bit closer [Vice Versa]. This is despite the fact that the quarter to quarter difference was huge (I also listed approximate Europe number and the quarters and total count so that you get an idea how it adds up, keep in mind cars started shipping to China in April and other Asian countries about mid-year, and no reliable numbers exist for those shipments):
| Quarter | InsideEVs NA estimate | Hybrid Cars US estimate + Official Canada numbers | Europe | Tesla Reported Deliveries |
| Q1 | 3500 | 4158 | 3067 | 6457 |
| Q2 | 3900 | 4436 | 2522 | 7579 |
| Q3 | 3900 | 4167 | 1676 | 7785 |
| Q4 | 6000 | 4836 | 2279 | 9834 |
EDIT: Oops. I was wrong. Hybrid cars was actually further from the actual than InsideEVs, but not by much at all (HC overestimated, InsideEVs underestimated). I was going off the total shown in this link, but that total doesn't match the month to month total. My main point still applies though: they are both unreliable.
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Causalien
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