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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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It seems like everyone here assumes it will be a slam dunk. I certainly hope so, but am not nearly as sure.
There is still the chance that the model S could be a one hit wonder. (I'm not forgetting the roadster. It is an amazing car, but definitely lacks mass marketability).
Btw, it just occurred to me i missed something in my list earlier of market conditions that led to our 10% drop. Oil plunged again this week. Like it or not, the market believes that Teslas share price should follow the price of crude oil.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If you doubt Tesla and Elon when keeps repeating how extra special and great the Model X will be, after all they've done above and beyond already, you should perhaps reconsider your long position. If you're long while having doubts like this you're in a minority among the longs. Which means your paying what you perceive a more expensive price for TSLA than most other longs perceive they're paying.
sahanim
Member
"The Model X is a better SUV than the Model S is a sedan" - Elon Musk
I not really too worried about MX not doing well.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Great minds think alike. No seriously this is exactly my point. There are things to worry about, but the Model X not being great is not one of them!
"The Model X is a better SUV than the Model S is a sedan" - Elon Musk
This is what I mean about abnormally-high expectations.
I may be a minority among longs, but I think it's important to manage risk. I think TSLA is a great investment in the long-term (and probably the short-term too), but I'm not going to wager my entire portfolio on it (or any other company, for that matter). Maybe 10% at most.
Don't forget that Elon has a history of making huge promises and failing to deliver in a timely fashion. How is Roadster 3.0 working out for everyone? Also, he likes to twist words to give the illusion of something that isn't quite what he said.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yeah I don't agree with you though. Elon may sometimes be too optimistic about the time schedule, I'll give you that, but he has ALWAYS followed through on his promises when it comes to the technology, features, Supercharging etc.
I don't have a great mind but I agree about the model x being great. I can stress/debate about when the deliveries start, will TM be able to ramp up to meet their 55K goal on total S and X total production and what size battery/range will it have...but not about if it will be great.
That remains to be seen. There are quite a few he hasn't followed through on yet.
My car still doesn't back out of the garage on its own. It doesn't even parallel park on its own, which other cars have been doing for years.
99% of Superchargers don't have a single solar panel on them, which wasn't a promise per-se, but if you listen to Elon talk about the future you would think they would be standard equipment.
Not saying I don't love the car. I just take everything Elon says with a grain of salt.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
So what are you saying: you think the car will park on it's own, you just don't know when or you don't think it will ever park on it's own? You don't think they will cover 100% of supercharging with solar in a few years (with solar over those superchargers where it makes sense + some offsetting at the Gigafactory or Fremont), or you just don't know when?
So with regards to the X the question becomes: do you think it will be great when it gets released, or later? Because the car is coming, soon. So either it's great from the start, or gets great after a while, or never gets great. In the second and third case Elon is lying now, which i doubt he is (he has also numerous times talked about how important it is for him that the Model X is right from the start, with no issues).
I believe that Elon believes the things he says, so I don't actually consider it lying. He's just overly optimistic about things.
I believe that he thinks the Model X is great, but does that actually make it great? We'll see.
I believe in his vision, but I don't think he is infallible.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
OK but the stakes are pretty high. Tesla will take quite a fall if the Model X isn't great. And we have to disagree to disagree about what Elon is overly optimistic about: you say "about things" which is kind of broad, I say he's only overly optimistic about timelines, never content. Big difference.
He was overly-optimistic about the pricing on the roadster, so it's not just timelines.
Well he did have the massive announcement about ending range anxiety, and if there is anything that actually GIVES me range anxiety it's the first version of the software supposed to end it. It might be usefull down the road but then the navigation software needs a massive overhaul as well, just ask anyone using it in the western part of Norway.
Don't get me wrong I love Elon's vision but there is no doubt he has a tendency to get way too positive about stuff that is only so-so. As another example the way they seem to want to stuck with the wrong sticker price marketing issue way past sillyness.
Does that imply I will sell my car or my stock, no way! But not all that comes from Tesla is golden (lets not start on service center issues in Norway again).
Cobos
Citizen-T
Active Member
I remember reading somewhere that optimists are not as good at estimating as pessimists, but optimists are more likely to get things done. Pessimists never even try.
I don't think it should be surprising to anyone that someone that achieves as much as Elon does should be a bit optimistic with schedules.
I don't think it should be surprising to anyone that someone that achieves as much as Elon does should be a bit optimistic with schedules.
@Citizen-T I was just (today on my flight out to TMC-Connect) reading that in Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (Chapter 24 - The Engine of Capitalism) and thought of Elon immediately.
"More often than not, risk takers underestimate the odds they face... Because they misread the risks, optimistic entrepreneurs often believe they are prudent, even when they are not. Their confidence in their future success sustains a positive mood that helps them obtain resources from others, raise the morale of their employees, and enhance their prospects of prevailing. When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing."
"One of the benefits of an optimistic temperament is that it encourages persistence in the face of obstacles."
The previous chapter covered the Planning Fallacy "decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations." This is in the context of entrepreneurs thinking that their venture is special and will beat the odds. While that sounds possible to me, I kinda get the impression that Elon's principle-based approach to design would not falter on this. I think it's more that he is doing something so new and different that there isn't a baseline of "what is likely to succeed/fail" that he's missing.
Apologies for going so off-topic... do we have a psychoanalysis thread somewhere? oh just shoot me now, before it gets worse...:redface:
"More often than not, risk takers underestimate the odds they face... Because they misread the risks, optimistic entrepreneurs often believe they are prudent, even when they are not. Their confidence in their future success sustains a positive mood that helps them obtain resources from others, raise the morale of their employees, and enhance their prospects of prevailing. When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing."
"One of the benefits of an optimistic temperament is that it encourages persistence in the face of obstacles."
The previous chapter covered the Planning Fallacy "decisions based on delusional optimism rather than on a rational weighting of gains, losses, and probabilities. They overestimate benefits and underestimate costs. They spin scenarios of success while overlooking the potential for mistakes and miscalculations." This is in the context of entrepreneurs thinking that their venture is special and will beat the odds. While that sounds possible to me, I kinda get the impression that Elon's principle-based approach to design would not falter on this. I think it's more that he is doing something so new and different that there isn't a baseline of "what is likely to succeed/fail" that he's missing.
Apologies for going so off-topic... do we have a psychoanalysis thread somewhere? oh just shoot me now, before it gets worse...:redface:
I really think some of you have lost touch with what Tesla has done for the transportation sector. These car features might be on other brands, but they still rely on gas. And Elon was one-offing that comment about self parking in your garage. Thats so far down the road, yet we have gallery employees trying to sale on that feature. Ridiculous.
And then you have others whining over the autopilot features. Pathetic. Focus people. Does anyone else have an electric car that goes over 200 miles? Getting off fossil fuels is the real progress. Everything else is fluff, so please step back and remember this when an update doesn't have what you want.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Your welcome. Expect a pop in the am if there is any good news on Greece and then the selling will continue imho.
FYI: I am not a huge investor and don't have alot in the market, but I do LOVE listening to CNBC all day long and researching stocks and ideas. Tesla is one of the few I have went "all in" on.
I've listened to CNBC for years now and am in the financial business...I like when they have knowledgeable guests on but the 'traders' that are part of the CNBC crew that they have on everyday or regularly make me dumber to listen to...they're hired to say something and are used to fill up time between quality guest segments but it really dilutes the quality in my opinion of the content CNBC should provide...that's why I like Bloomberg TV better (as long as they're not too heavily involved in some boring tangent/topic I could care less about)
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