Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[electracity]

This is why the new MS 70D is a killer deal and has crazy amounts of take rate (1/3 of new sales according to Tesla)... because the value proposition of the car is just too good for everything they added to it.

Have you looked at the trade in price of higher mileage cars? Have you estimated the cost of battery replacement? These are not inexpensive to own cars. Free charging is nice, but on the whole, a rather trivial savings. Reports here is that Tesla is subtracting a dollar per mile for high mileage trade-ins.

The 70D is a good relative value in the lineup. But all these cars are expensive per mile. Perhaps very expensive, especially for heavy supercharger users.

 

[BoerumHill]

Has anyone looked at the value of the realestate where the Superchargers are? I
think Tesla basically gets the land for free.

They don't own the land. Most locations are 5 or 10 year land lease.

 

[MitchJi]

HI,

I just sold 75 shares and bought 2 Jan 2016's, 240 strike for $37.55 and 2 Jan 17's 250 strike for $53.50. Plan A was to buy the 2 2016's now and roll them into 2017's later but this looked like to good a deal to pass up.

Thanks everyone for all of your help!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

They don't own the land. Most locations are 5 or 10 year land lease.

Interesting. Can you elaborate? Does Tesla pay anything for the 5-10 year leases? I was of the impression most of the agreements involved the land being leased for close to nothing, in exchange for the increased traffic the Superchargers and destination chargers bring to the local businesses, in addition to the tax incentives local businesses receive for installing the fast chargers.

* Can someone please ask about this at Tesla Connect? I'd be curious to know what types of arrangement are being used in the USA, Europe, and Asia.

 

[jhm]

The cost of gasoline is about $1.10 per gallon plus the cost of crude oil inputs. Thus, drivers are essential paying about $1.10/gal for fuelling infrastructure, the cost of getting oil from well to a convenient fueling location. This amount to about $500 per year per car. Or over the 16+ year life of the car, this is at least $8000/car just for fueling infrastructure. Clearly what Tesla is spending on Superchargers and destination chargers, and what owner spend on installing at home chargers is just a small fraction of what is spent on fueling infrastructure. So even before we consider the cost of energy whether crude oil or electricity, Tesla has a huge infrastructural advantage. This is also why low crude oil prices are irrelevant to the long term ascendancy of EVs.

Anyway, I know I'm getting off topic for the short term thread, but if we're going to discuss the value of Superchagers, it's good to understand the deep infrastructural advance being undertaken.

 

[hoang51]

Interesting. Can you elaborate? Does Tesla pay anything for the 5-10 year leases? I was of the impression most of the agreements involved the land being leased for close to nothing, in exchange for the increased traffic the Superchargers and destination chargers bring to the local businesses, in addition to the tax incentives local businesses receive for installing the fast chargers.

* Can someone please ask about this at Tesla Connect? I'd be curious to know what types of arrangement are being used in the USA, Europe, and Asia.

Here's some information for the USA side, circa 2013: Inside Teslas Supercharger Partner Program: The Costs And Commitments Of Electrifying Road Transport | TechCrunch

 

[FredTMC]

Time for analysts with recent upgrades to come in and defend TSLA. Kudos to Ben Kallo Baird for doing just that this week.

 

[32no]

I like Tesla Motors Europe expanding more and more in Europe.
They just moved to their new and bigger site in Tilburg (link: twitter) showing lots of trucks presumably to deliver vehicles.
It's been some time since the new global/regional sales management structure is in place.
I expect some news about their global/regional sales figures and sales strategy during the upcoming ER next month.

BTW SuperChargers in Europe growing really like pimples now.
Maybe at a faster pace than ever (link: map).
German car companies currently only talking about hybrids with 20 miles electrical range and EV city commuting.
Tesla package (vehicle and charging infrastructure) enables international long distance travel in Europe now.
This needs some time to sink in.
To my opinion a lot of potential buyers did not pull the trigger yet because they could not see the charging infrastructure with their own eyes and it was only "promised". This has changed.
Tesla is actually putting the infrastructure in place like they promised two years ago, this company is awesome.
To my opinion this is a game changer in the industry/for the customer.

We should email IR to confirm that they moved in. Orginially, they were actually supposed to move into the next Tilburg building in the third week of April 2015 (according to this article).

 

[electracity]

Time for analysts with recent upgrades to come in and defend TSLA. Kudos to Ben Kallo Baird for doing just that this week.

I think the TSLA downgrades were based on (accurate) predictions of China's market panic and Greece. Buyers may postpone luxury purchases. I think analysts will now sit tight until the X reveal, assuming no new major news on China or Greece. Little coming out of Tesla Motors lately, which is not surprising. They don't want to kill sales in the months leading up to the X reveal. Keeping Elon from being chatty about Tesla Motor's future is probably part of that strategy.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

My bet is 30-40% of people who currently or are intending to buy a Model S, are considering also buying a Model X. The Model X could easily be revealed this weekend, at Tesla Connect. Elon did mentioned it would happen by the end of July, and with the number of photos that have surfaced, a proper reveal seems imminent.

My guess is many of the first buyers of the Model S, who have not already purchased the P85D, are planning to buy a Model X. This alone will result in significant sales.

 

[FredTMC]

I thought Elon said "no reveal of MX until first deliveries..."

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Has Tesla announced it is working with Energizer? A number of things have me thinking this could be announced. Energizer needs to Supercharge its battery sales, Energizer is pushing for recyclable batteries, and there was some talk about a partnership in late 2014.

 

[electracity]

I thought Elon said "no reveal of MX until first deliveries..."

It is worth considering why he would have that plan.

 

[eloder]

I thought Elon said "no reveal of MX until first deliveries..."

The design studio has to reveal a lot more. I don't think people will be configuring to add "Mystery Feature X!" along with a blank authorization to charge anything Tesla wants for a loan, only to be revealed when the car is in your driveway.

 

[hockeythug]

It could be like the Model S where there was the event at the factory for the first couple sig owners and that would be the "reveal". Sigs are fully loaded and have the same color anyways right?

 

[electracity]

The design studio has to reveal a lot more. I don't think people will be configuring to add "Mystery Feature X!" along with a blank authorization to charge anything Tesla wants for a loan, only to be revealed when the car is in your driveway.

I think a thousand people would be willing. They would know that Tesla would be sure to please.

But it would be weird. So why the "no show until ship"? I think because of S sales.

 

[doggusfluffy]

The design studio has to reveal a lot more. I don't think people will be configuring to add "Mystery Feature X!" along with a blank authorization to charge anything Tesla wants for a loan, only to be revealed when the car is in your driveway.

Well didn't one of the analysts who toured the factory say they were training workers for the new Model X line a couple weeks ago? If the recently completed paint shop, BiW line with 3x the robots can produce a small fleet of signatures you could in theory deliver those and unveil the design studio for the public at the same time...

 

[BoerumHill]

It could be like the Model S where there was the event at the factory for the first couple sig owners and that would be the "reveal". Sigs are fully loaded and have the same color anyways right?

Of the 31 Model S Signature series that have been listed - 28 sold - only 9 have been Signature Red.

 

[ibcs]

Of the 31 Model S Signature series that have been listed - 28 sold - only 9 have been Signature Red.

Won't give my Sig Red away even with the Model X coming in the future. I'd rather drive it to 100,000 miles and see my thoughts when the warranty runs out. Sorry off topic.

 

[hockeythug]

Of the 31 Model S Signature series that have been listed - 28 sold - only 9 have been Signature Red.

Ah, didn't know that. I guess the interior color would have to be picked as well so there goes that theory.