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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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The ST thread didn't become a catchall, it already was a catchall. There was an attempt to break it up into multiple threads and nobody posted in the other threads. All that happened was that ye ST thread turned into a catchall plus a place for people to complain that posts were in the wrong thread...which just added to the chaff here.
Overnight futures were flat until China PMI data was announced, now S&P 500 & QQQ's down .75%
Chinese Factory Gauge Drops to Lowest Level Since March 2009 - Bloomberg Business
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150820_ES1.jpg
Chinese Factory Gauge Drops to Lowest Level Since March 2009 - Bloomberg Business
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150820_ES1.jpg
doggusfluffy
Closed
Well are you more seasoned and prosperous investors looking at some protective PUTs tomorrow? I'm remembering the last ER when I brushed off buying some downside protection...
The comment about being opportunistic due to how quickly the capital markets can sour is looking wise now that Tesla finalized today.
The comment about being opportunistic due to how quickly the capital markets can sour is looking wise now that Tesla finalized today.
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sahanim
Member
Hmm if markets are down in the morning. what are the chances the underwriters will firmly hold the 242 base?
what goes into the decision making to determine it's worth letting the share price to fall below 242?
what goes into the decision making to determine it's worth letting the share price to fall below 242?
I hope the report helps, but it's just hope...
As Anticitizen mentions, P85D is old news, so there goes my hope
So where are we now?
- Macro is bad, some people think the big correction in the market is about to begin
- The rally that started in April when we all thought it was to conquer a new ATH is history, stopped thanks to that perfectly timed UBS report
- Last ER was so-so (guidance, MX supplier problems)
- Technically, we went through a support, next stop 220 if there is no recovery...
- No MX or MX configurator in sight (but around the corner...)
- Pre-market is already looking sour
All very optimistic, mmh. This reminds me of September/October last year when it started to go down and I was (but I suppose many of us had the same feeling...) in some sort of denial: it won't go below 250, it won't go below 240, etc...Hoping for X news at D event, but nothing. After the UBS report on 21st of July this year, I believed as well we would recover quickly...
Now we know that X is coming for sure, but still so many questions around its production ramp-up. Another unknown is the Powerwall story: good numbers on that front and an X reveal could trigger some kind of (temporary) recovery.
I think the return to ATH attack will only happen when the following conditions are met:
- Model X ramp-up
- 2015 delivery/production numbers above 50k units
- Model S demand not impacted by Model X (so 2016 estimates at 80k units for S/X together)
- Energy Storage having strong demand
- News on Model 3
- Autopilot features according expectations
Of course I will be proven totally wrong...
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Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I hope the report helps, but it's just hope...
As Anticitizen mentions, P85D is old news, so there goes my hope
So where are we now?
- Macro is bad, some people think the big correction in the market is about to begin
- The rally that started in April when we all thought it was to conquer a new ATH is history, stopped thanks to that perfectly timed UBS report
- Last ER was so-so (guidance, MX supplier problems)
- Technically, we went through a support, next stop 220 if there is no recovery...
- No MX or MX configurator in sight (but around the corner...)
- Pre-market is already looking sour
All very optimistic, mmh. This reminds me of September/October last year when it started to go down and I was (but I suppose many of us had the same feeling...) in some sort of denial: it won't go below 250, it won't go below 240, etc...Hoping for X news at D event, but nothing. After the UBS report on 21st of July this year, I believed as well we would recover quickly...
Now we know that X is coming for sure, but still so many questions around its production ramp-up. Another unknown is the Powerwall story: good numbers on that front and an X reveal could trigger some kind of (temporary) recovery.
I think the return to ATH attack will only happen when the following conditions are met:
- Model X ramp-up
- 2015 delivery/production numbers above 50k units
- Model S demand not impacted by Model X (so 2016 estimates at 80k units for S/X together)
- Energy Storage having strong demand
- News on Model 3
- Autopilot features according expectations
Of course I will be proven totally wrong...
Perhaps most importantly, when TSLA reports cash flow positive.
The upcoming drivetrain redesign, factory retooling, and the drivetrain replacements for 70,000 cars will delay that a tad. (I'm now quite convinced that's going to happen.) Along with expanding Superchargers and Service Centers and the Gigafactory....
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I have watched some oil and gas names here in Calgary go from 50 dollars to 5 dollars a share as management has done NOTHING to calm the fears of the market. They start slashing dividends after the stocks fall to near bankruptcy levels! Tesla COULD have similar issues. Musk needs to address the damn drivetrain and supercharger issue RIGHT NOW. It puts too much negativity and doubt in the minds of us folk who would like to be shareholders. Tell us the truth. What are your plans? Is there still a drivetrain issue that has yet to be figured out / stumping their engineers AND what are all the poor Model 3 owners with no garage and/or apartment dwellers going to do without permission to use the Superchargers as their SOLE point of charging. One damn press release will cause this slide to halt.
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According to some TMC threads, there are still some drivetrain / failures. I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS IS THE TRUTH OR SIMPLY FUD THAT IS BEING SPREAD AROUND. Musk did try to address drivetrain questions last year but I think he needs to step up to the plate again and make another statement if there is in fact ongoing issues. Once again, I have no proof and this is simply heresay based on TMC posts I have read. I have faith he will do the right thing soon......
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Whoa...calm down.
A small percentage of cars have had motors/gearboxes replaced (not the entire drivetrain, which includes the battery). In the past Musk said that Tesla had determined that the problem was often not with what was replaced, the sound was coming from other minor sources like a vibrating cable that was not fully secured.
The reality is that the vast majority of cars have had no drivetrain issues. If they had then of course you would hear about it from most owners you know or have communicated with, which of course you haven't. What you have heard is some people complaining on TMC. Since there are over 50,000 owners obviously the problem is not the crisis that some make it out to be.
It is useful to keep complaints on TMC in perspective. Yes there have been some motor/gearbox replacements, just like their have been some battery replacements and replacements of other parts (Tesla proactively replaced my drivers display but I had had no issues with it).
So take a breath and realize that people who post about problems on TMC, and people who don't have problems don't make posts like "Today I did not have a problem with my car. Just wanted you all to know that. Bye."
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Not enough data for a meaningful conclusion or in other words - "sample of 1" problem.
There is close to 100.000 model S cars out there, in next year there will be 150.000.
People who have problems, complain, those who don't, do not.
TMC is great for news, unfortunately it also feeds FUD and blows problems out of proportions.
There was early design problem that caused some failures. It was fixed. It does not mean newer drive-trains cannot fail, for same or different reasons.
And drive-train is being continually improved. Where do you think front motor unit for 85D came from?
What is not needed is for tesla to publicly talk about their problems. No serious company does. If there is some issue, there will be a recall. If it is minor, it is handled via annual servicing.
The day they start public talk about their problems (i.e. "honesty") is the day I sell off my TSLA.
There is no way honesty would not be understood as incompetency and caused end of Tesla Motors.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Sorry for my ignorance....didn't realize battery was part of drivetrain. Those on the other threads use the term "drivetrain" when speaking about warranty replacements.
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EDIT COMPLETE.
sub
Active Member
go on to any enthusiast car or motorcycle website and you will see complaints about the most common issues, even if only a small minority ever experience them. That is because those with the issue go looking for a solution, those without (the over whelming majority in most cases) are never aware it exists. I'm not aware of a car made that didn't have some weak point that needed to be addressed, all of my current vehicles have them so I pay a little extra attention to those areas and go about my life.
Krugerrand
Meow
Nice pot stirring.
1) the 'drivetrain' or most any other car part/piece that Tesla has designed and built themselves is likely to receive 'improvement/continued improvement' at some point in time because Tesla is about innovation, advancement and offering the very best product they can. Musk has stated in the past about Model S receiving up to 20 weekly changes. There is real evidence of that having happened over the past 3 years.
2) the factory will also always be 'improving/getting upgraded/having old replaced with new', because that is what is required to continue to improve efficiencies.
3) not even worth addressing.
Fudster with the intent pf manipulating the stock price.
Equivalent of yelling fire in a theater.
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BoerumHill
not great not terrible
Citizen-T
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