Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[replicant]

So why should tweeting Model 3 unveiling and preorders in March move the stock price? We're still waiting till 2017 for M3 deliveries, so not much has really changed, has it?

To remind everyone that the ultimate goal is to build an affordable electric car, not to sell a luxury sedan to Oprah nor to increase their ASP with the X.

Next week's Late Show with Stephen Colbert will generate some news coverage, so the tweets could prevent the media from talking about Tesla as a car maker for the 1%.

 

[demetri]

+1 Well said. It's all about perception and execution. Anything that reinforces and gets us closer to a more affordable model 3.
Elon's vision drives this company! And hopefully it's done with a profit for shareholders.
Also don't forget about stationary storage it's true potential is yet to be priced in.

 

[replicant]

I've checked dictionaries for "pre-order," and the most basic definition is to place an order for an item prior to it becoming commercially available. So I think Tesla will be expecting a real commitment to taking delivery. It's not just a number to stand in line to maybe place an order when your number is called. Something like a 5% to 10% downpayment subject to forfeiture would assure the serious buyer that the line is not full of halfhearted shoppers. This seems reasonable to me.

I have worried that if only $1000 was required for a refundable reservation, they would have an impoosibly long line, but it would be a waste of time with high refund rates. I hope they think through and orderly process that allows people time to make a thoughful purchase decision. We want solid commitments.

I hope they have a plan to bring reservation holders into the referral program. For instance: anyone who buy a Model 3 using the referral link of a reservation holder will get $1000 off the purchase price - idem for the referrer.

 

[Runarbt]

I hope they have a plan to bring reservation holders into the referral program. For instance: anyone who buy a Model 3 using the referral link of a reservation holder will get $1000 off the purchase price - idem for the referrer.

Why? Reservation holders have no personal experience with Tesla cars yet, and cant offer test drives or tell how the car is to live with.
What makes a reservation holder qualified to "sell" the car?

 

[replicant]

Do you have to be qualified to talk about a car you just reserved and encourage your friends to do the same? The referee and the referrer would get a discount only if both of them buy the car. No one benefit if they don't really want one. Reservation holder can test drive the S and X and discuss with current electric car owners to discover what the 3 is about.

The idea is to make it easier for everyone to get an electric car. Like a Kickstarter, the more people join in, the quicker and cheaper the cars will be built. Putting down a deposit brings capital that pay for new plants and robots. This lowers the cost of production and benefit everyone.

I don't own a Tesla and I've never ridden in one. Yet, I've put a big chunk of my savings into TSLA and I'd gladly participate in another public offering. Profile from past sales can't pay for all the capex needed to product 500K vehicules. So who's more qualified to finance the Model 3: A) the banks, B) the stock market or C) future customers?

 

[Runarbt]

Do you have to be qualified to talk about a car you just reserved and encourage your friends to do the same? The referee and the referrer would get a discount only if both of them buy the car. No one benefit if they don't really want one. Reservation holder can test drive the S and X and discuss with current electric car owners to discover what the 3 is about.

The idea is to make it easier for everyone to get an electric car. Like a Kickstarter, the more people join in, the quicker and cheaper the cars will be built. Putting down a deposit brings capital that pay for new plants and robots. This lowers the cost of production and benefit everyone.

I don't own a Tesla and I've never ridden in one. Yet, I've put a big chunk of my savings into TSLA and I'd gladly participate in another public offering. Profile from past sales can't pay for all the capex needed to product 500K vehicules. So who's more qualified to finance the Model 3: A) the banks, B) the stock market or C) future customers?

Imo, future customers are only qualified after they have take delivery and lived with their cars for a while.

I do think you need to be able to talk from personal experience and not only from reading about it, to qualify to promote and sell a Tesla. This is the best way to prevent misconceptions from being presented as facts. If people are dependent on "selling" x-numbers of Tesla's to be able to get their own, then any potential issue might be downplayed or dismissed completely. We who have lived with the car for a few years know that there are issues, both with the car (most on them minor) and with service which often take a long time.. But in the end the car is so nice a drive and experience as a whole, that these issues feel trivial.. but it is important imo to be able to give a potential buyer all the facts - and not a summary of what others think or have experienced. If you haven't lived with the car yourself, then all you can tell others is what you assume it is like, based on what you can read.. and you know what they say about assuming stuff? (at least in my line of work, ATC)

 

[replicant]

Imo, future customers are only qualified after they have take delivery and lived with their cars for a while.

I do think you need to be able to talk from personal experience and not only from reading about it, to qualify to promote and sell a Tesla. This is the best way to prevent misconceptions from being presented as facts. If people are dependent on "selling" x-numbers of Tesla's to be able to get their own, then any potential issue might be downplayed or dismissed completely. We who have lived with the car for a few years know that there are issues, both with the car (most on them minor) and with service which often take a long time.. But in the end the car is so nice a drive and experience as a whole, that these issues feel trivial.. but it is important imo to be able to give a potential buyer all the facts - and not a summary of what others think or have experienced. If you haven't lived with the car yourself, then all you can tell others is what you assume it is like, based on what you can read.. and you know what they say about assuming stuff? (at least in my line of work, ATC)

The referral program could be open to Model 3's reservation holders until the car is available. This way, it would be obvious for everyone that people promoting the 3 haven't experience it yet, and that as soon as the Model 3 is on the road, the promotion would be done by actual owners.

This might not be ideal, but a Kickstarter-like campaign would really help Tesla bring their cars to the mass.

 

[Johan]

Up to $255 (+3+% in premarket trading). I'm not seeing the same optmistic premarket in other tech stocks. Could it really be the market is so slow in reacting to the "MX launch" (leaked design studio) and some apparent pricing info that has been deducted from this? Or is it Elon's tweet basically saying "Yes, we will delivert MX like we said we would and yes, we will build Model 3 like we said we would"?

With regards to the Model 3 referral discussion: I think offering a bonus for those who have only reserved would be wrong. But, like I've said before in discussing the referral program for Model S, I think referrals as a sales driver could work wonders for Model 3. My reasoning is this: Model 3 buyers are likely to be more price sensitive than S/X buyers. Tesla has calculated the cost to build stores and galleries, and run these, to be somewhere around $2000 per S/X sold which is why they're giving $1000 each to refferer and and buyer "instead". (And the $1000 to the owner is just a credit for Tesla stuff, not cash). Now, imagine I've worked hard to scrape together $40k for a Model 3. Let's say Tesla were to offer me $400 cash-back for each referral I made, and the taker of the referral $400 cash-back on his car. First of all there would be a very high take rate on these referrals in a more price sensitive buyer group. Secondly, I think some Model 3 owners would be working pretty hard to make referrals. Let's say it was capped at 10, like with the S/X, but that instead of store credit you got actual cash back. I think someone who could barely justify $40k on a Model 3 (who is probably well aware of the savings that person is getting from it being an EV) would work pretty hard to make 10 referrals and get $4000 back?

 

[AlMc]

IMO. No referral credit for the model3 initially. I believe the reservation list will grow well with no help if opened almost 1+ years before deliveries begin. See how it goes for the first 6 months and add the referral in the future, if needed.

 

[Gtoffo]

Up to $255 (+3+% in premarket trading). I'm not seeing the same optmistic premarket in other tech stocks. Could it really be the market is so slow in reacting to the "MX launch" (leaked design studio) and some apparent pricing info that has been deducted from this? Or is it Elon's tweet basically saying "Yes, we will delivert MX like we said we would and yes, we will build Model 3 like we said we would"?

Those tweets were solid. Don't want to jinx it but fasten your seatbelts.

With regards to the Model 3 referral discussion: I think offering a bonus for those who have only reserved would be wrong. But, like I've said before in discussing the referral program for Model S, I think referrals as a sales driver could work wonders for Model 3. My reasoning is this: Model 3 buyers are likely to be more price sensitive than S/X buyers. Tesla has calculated the cost to build stores and galleries, and run these, to be somewhere around $2000 per S/X sold which is why they're giving $1000 each to refferer and and buyer "instead". (And the $1000 to the owner is just a credit for Tesla stuff, not cash). Now, imagine I've worked hard to scrape together $40k for a Model 3. Let's say Tesla were to offer me $400 cash-back for each referral I made, and the taker of the referral $400 cash-back on his car. First of all there would be a very high take rate on these referrals in a more price sensitive buyer group. Secondly, I think some Model 3 owners would be working pretty hard to make referrals. Let's say it was capped at 10, like with the S/X, but that instead of store credit you got actual cash back. I think someone who could barely justify $40k on a Model 3 (who is probably well aware of the savings that person is getting from it being an EV) would work pretty hard to make 10 referrals and get $4000 back?

The referral program is Elon's demand secret weapon. It has always been. It's what he credits for the success of Paypal and he has a couple of billion reasons to think it works great. He will use it again when necessary.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Teslas response to angst over lithium deal pleases Nevada lawmakers - Las Vegas Sun News

A spokesperson for Tesla clarified Musk’s comments, saying that “not all our lithium will come from these suppliers who made news earlier this week,” which leaves the door open to Nevada mines, as well as others in North America. Tesla declined to specify how much lithium from the Mexican mine will make up the company’s total supply chain. Tesla also declined to discuss projections of how much lithium the factory will consume, but independent estimates have suggested it could require 15,000 tons of the metal or more.

 

[Drax7]

So why should tweeting Model 3 unveiling and preorders in March move the stock price? We're still waiting till 2017 for M3 deliveries, so not much has really changed, has it?

It reduces uncertainty, it projects conviction about the present state of manufacturing affairs,
It projects less fear about building model x, the most difficult car to build in the world,
problem solved , let's go on to the next task.

 

[Hogfighter]

It reduces uncertainty, it projects conviction about the present state of manufacturing affairs,
It projects less fear about building model x, the most difficult car to build in the world,
problem solved , let's go on to the next task.

Are you kidding? Elon brought up the Model 3 orders because there's no demand for the X! And the Model 3 will cannibalize orders from both the S and the X, which means no one will ever buy anything! That's it.....I'm shorting the stock.

 

[anon]

It reduces uncertainty, it projects conviction about the present state of manufacturing affairs,
It projects less fear about building model x, the most difficult car to build in the world,
problem solved , let's go on to the next task.

It also confirms that the Model X is actually only $5000 more than the Model S when most of the headlines over the last few days have simply quoted the Signature price without making it clear that the standard price will be much lower.

 

[jhm]

So where's all the handwringing about Model 3 preorders "cannabalizing" sales of Models S and X?

I do think Tesla will have an opportunity to offer a convertible lease with preorder option. The basic idea is you can lease a new or CPO Model S on a lease upto 4 years with the option to terminate the lease upon taking delivery of a Model 3 with no penalty. The preorder optioned lease would also serve as your down payment on your preordered Model S. Basically if you are willing to put $5000 down for a Model 3, with that Tesla is willing to lease to you a CPO Model S for around $500 to $700 per month until your new Model 3 is delivered. And of course, if you want to keep your Model S longer, you can delay delivery of your Model 3. Personally, I would find such a lease an attractive offer. A certain fraction of those waiting for the Model 3 could be induced to lease a Model S or X in the interim, and this would monetize the waiting time.

Edit.

Dang, Hogfighter beat me to it, bring up the "c" word that is.

 

[Drax7]

Are you kidding? Elon brought up the Model 3 orders because there's no demand for the X! And the Model 3 will cannibalize orders from both the S and the X, which means no one will ever buy anything! That's it.....I'm shorting the stock.

Spin and spin all you want. Bulls make money, bears make money, and hogs get
slaughtered.

 

[Hogfighter]

So where's all the handwringing about Model 3 preorders "cannabalizing" sales of Models S and X?

I do think Tesla will have an opportunity to offer a convertible lease with preorder option. The basic idea is you can lease a new or CPO Model S on a lease upto 4 years with the option to terminate the lease upon taking delivery of a Model 3 with no penalty. The preorder optioned lease would also serve as your down payment on your preordered Model S. Basically if you are willing to put $5000 down for a Model 3, with that Tesla is willing to lease to you a CPO Model S for around $500 to $700 per month until your new Model 3 is delivered. And of course, if you want to keep your Model S longer, you can delay delivery of your Model 3. Personally, I would find such a lease an attractive offer. A certain fraction of those waiting for the Model 3 could be induced to lease a Model S or X in the interim, and this would monetize the waiting time.

Edit.

Dang, Hogfighter beat me to it, bring up the "c" word that is.

Yea, sorry...it was just too easy. I channeled my inner Paulo Santos.

 

[jhm]

Yea, sorry...it was just too easy. I channeled my inner Paulo Santos.

Ha, ha, it is too easy. I stopped reading Santos a long time ago, wonder how that peak Model S demand theory is working for him. How could Tesla go on to sell more cars in the US when Santos saw so many convincing signs of demand constraint in 2013? Inconceivable!

My prediction is that we'll hear "C" word used an awful not with every step toward the Model 3.

 

[Causalien]

Those tweets were solid. Don't want to jinx it but fasten your seatbelts.



The referral program is Elon's demand secret weapon. It has always been. It's what he credits for the success of Paypal and he has a couple of billion reasons to think it works great. He will use it again when necessary.

I'd like Elon to upgrade it to Pyramid referral program where 1% of the referral deduction goes on to the layers above. IF the current referral program proves to be successful.

 

[winfield100]

Ha, ha, it is too easy. I stopped reading Santos a long time ago, wonder how that peak Model S demand theory is working for him. How could Tesla go on to sell more cars in the US when Santos saw so many convincing signs of demand constraint in 2013? Inconceivable!

My prediction is that we'll hear "C" word used an awful not with every step toward the Model 3.

John Peterson is still alive and kicking and promoting Pb batteries, even tho stock did a 1:1,750 reverse split)