Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[schonelucht]

Eds worked for a supplier. Maybe this is the guy who leaked the model X CAD plans?

 

[Gtoffo]

Pre market not looking good.

 

[FredTMC]

With all the good press recently including CR rating of 100 and MX news, I'm surprised TSLA isn't a little more of a leader last couple days. It acted that way for a while and then faded. Next week should be better. Low volume market this week and Elon / Colbert

 

[FredTMC]

Sure is quiet around here! Crickets....

 

[eepic]

Sure is quiet around here! Crickets....

TMC hangover from the MX excitement earlier in the week

 

[Johan]

Sure is quiet around here! Crickets....

How to Start a Conversation When You Have Nothing to Talk About (with Examples)

Remark on the location or occasion. Look around and see if there is anything worth pointing out. Examples of location or occasion comments: "This is a gorgeous room!", "Such incredible catering!", "I love this view!", or "Great dog!"

Wow, how about that new TMC logo, quite good. And I love the colors of the default color scheme. The deep red really goes well with the white font.

 

[AlMc]

Sure is quiet around here! Crickets....

I'll bite. I believe the thread is quiet for a couple reasons: First, Labor Day weekend in the US generally means less time on the forum/more time with family. This includes analysts whom might otherwise be writing reports. Second, all the 'momos' and 'tech' stocks are being driven more by macroeconomics than anything else. This is *boring* for the investor section of the forum where we usually feel we can get a scoop on TM/TSLA related info before everyone else and act upon it.

In the coming 3-4 weeks we have some excellent chances for positive catalysts. Colbert interview, first reveal of 'unknown' things about the X, first deliveries and then the Q3 delivery numbers in early October.

Personally, I have accumulated a few 'lotto' tickets for Colbert: Sept 18 280s for about .80/contract DCA'd over last week.

 

[Gtoffo]

I'll bite. I believe the thread is quiet for a couple reasons: First, Labor Day weekend in the US generally means less time on the forum/more time with family. This includes analysts whom might otherwise be writing reports. Second, all the 'momos' and 'tech' stocks are being driven more by macroeconomics than anything else. This is *boring* for the investor section of the forum where we usually feel we can get a scoop on TM/TSLA related info before everyone else and act upon it.

In the coming 3-4 weeks we have some excellent chances for positive catalysts. Colbert interview, first reveal of 'unknown' things about the X, first deliveries and then the Q3 delivery numbers in early October.

Personally, I have accumulated a few 'lotto' tickets for Colbert: Sept 18 280s for about .80/contract DCA'd over last week.

My feeling is: macro is a big scary beast that most investors around here are not really used to looking at. Most follow the company. Not the economy as a whole.

I feel like I am much more in control with Tesla than the economy overall. So, personally: I'm scared and when macro moves I wait silently in my bomb shelter.

 

[doggusfluffy]

My feeling is: macro is a big scary beast that most investors around here are not really used to looking at. Most follow the company. Not the economy as a whole.

I feel like I am much more in control with Tesla than the economy overall. So, personally: I'm scared and when macro moves I wait silently in my bomb shelter.

That sounds very familiar to my situation currently. Also, I'm wishing I had planned ahead better and wasn't scrambling to build my bomb shelter. :smile:

 

[uselesslogin]

Personally, I have accumulated a few 'lotto' tickets for Colbert: Sept 18 280s for about .80/contract DCA'd over last week.

I got my 'lotto' tickets this weekend:
Celebrate Bandera!

Promptly at 10 a.m., a longhorn steer with a really full belly will be released into the pen which has been marked with a grid consisting of 500 numbers drawn out in 2' X 2' squares. Whoever holds the number of the square where the longhorn decides to drop a patty is the winner of the $2,500 prize.

OK, yeah this is OT. But there is no social chat thread and people are complaining about the lack of posts.

 

[Gtoffo]

That sounds very familiar to my situation currently. Also, I'm wishing I had planned ahead better and wasn't scrambling to build my bomb shelter. :smile:

I should have specified that the bomb shelter exists only in my head.....I was really expecting this last week's news to push us up. We are in the same boat my friend.

 

[FluxCap]

My feeling is: macro is a big scary beast that most investors around here are not really used to looking at. Most follow the company. Not the economy as a whole.

I feel like I am much more in control with Tesla than the economy overall. So, personally: I'm scared and when macro moves I wait silently in my bomb shelter.

We've got a thread for that as many of you guys know. Lots of great contributors to discussion there. Also if anyone has questions about macro situation, don't be afraid to ask there.

 

[Paracelsus]

If you are a chartist, you might find today to be a very interesting day indeed. Price falls to form a double-dip on the new long term trend-line very quietly on a Friday just before a three-day weekend (~238). Closing before a long weekend allows that price to count for multiple days which will reflect on the long term charts. Nice potential formation of new resistance point and launch point just before traditional after-summer market pick-up..................?

 

[mejojo]

Come on....head back up to Max Pain (245). Low volume..I know you can do it....

 

[ZachShahan]

It is impossible to tell the exact best time to buy (or sell) so the better strategy is to not bet all on one deal but spread out over a few points. That may not yield the highest but also not risk too much. As you have noted, it can be smart to keep some cash at the ready.

That is my advanced theory. My practice, however ...

Thanks. I'm finally checking in here (first time since I posted that request), and I actually just bought some more about an hour ago (3rd purchase other than the first bunch, which I sold). And I'm planning to just keep my eye on it and go in again (or multiple times) if it crashes for some reason (after X launch, supplier problems, lower 2015 deliveries than analysts expect, etc).

Best of luck to the rest of you in what I think will be an interesting end to the year.

 

[MartinAustin]

Come on....head back up to Max Pain (245). Low volume..I know you can do it....

I wonder if there are investors who believe "Model X news" will come out some time during this long weekend, and TSLA may gap up on Tuesday morning as a result, so, they're buying up whatever is on sale.

Of course, whenever I make a post like this, the stock reverses ><

 

[ZachShahan]

Sell 1 call for every 100 shares you go long. Or buy puts to offset your loss. They come with expirations, but like the premiums on term life, they're worth the expense. Your instinct was correct, this probably belongs in the trading strategies thread.

I have no idea how to offer assistance on timing the market. I've been dollar cost averaging for 37 years, maybe there's a better way I haven't discovered yet.

TSLA is extreme volatility, in both directions. I don't care - stock goes up, stock goes down, that's what stocks do. If you're uncomfortable holding a 30% unrealized loss then you might want to seek stability in a more mature company.

I'm 53 and investing like I'm 25 in my non-retirement account. But I have enough in my 401K + Roth to retire in 6.5 years, the 529s for both kids are fully funded, and before any of that happened I first saved up a three month emergency fund just in case I punch my CEO Friday (long ago increased to six months.) The company provides key man & LTD. If I didn't have retirement, education, and disaster covered, no doubt my risk tolerance would be far different.

Maybe you can time the entry and exit points. Good on you if you succeed. It might be a good idea to have a plan B just in case you don't.

Thanks. Yes, this is "play" money, but I prefer to bet on TSLA than put it into a more stable, secure investment. I initially thought I'd do a bit of buying and selling, but I've switched to buying & holding when it comes to TSLA. I believe it's growth plans are sound and it is executing. I don't have any reason to believe the price should be lower, so I don't feel comfortable selling when it's "high." OTOH, when the price crashes for various reasons, it just seems an opportune time to put more in when I'm in a good position to do so.

I'm "playing" the solar market more since it just seems to follow a rhythm more and the growth in the industry is now at a more mature place, but I know there's no guaranteed way to win in this game.

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I wonder if there are investors who believe "Model X news" will come out some time during this long weekend, and TSLA may gap up on Tuesday morning as a result, so, they're buying up whatever is on sale.

Of course, whenever I make a post like this, the stock reverses ><

I just bought more because it seemed to be holding around $240, and I have the feeling (right or wrong, of course ) that it won't drop below that unless Tesla comes out with some bad news or the overall market crashes (while I'm super busy with other things ugh ) again.

 

[Robert.Boston]

TSLA basically tracking the market today on moderately light volume. I was hoping for a post-tweet bounce, but the Friday before Labor Day isn't a great day to release news. I'm hoping that investors will have a chance over the long weekend to absorb what Elon just revealed and trigger a rise on Tuesday.

 

[ZachShahan]

It's almost impossible to perfectly time such a volatile stock in an uncertain macroeconomic market. However, I do think the next 6-9 months may be the last time we see the stock at these levels. Probable positive catalysts between now and then include:1) Full ramp up of Model X. This includes positive buzz and reviews surrounding the car and the company.2) Cash Flow positive. Management has implied that a positive CF comes along with full MX ramp.3) Model 3 reveal. I personally think Tesla will receiver 25K+ pre-orders in the first week.4) Grand opening of the Gigafactory.Of course, none of these are certain but that also means they are not currently priced into the stock. These are some pretty huge milestones in the company's history that have the potential to bring the stock to new heights. A year from now I think it will be fairly obvious that it was a good decision to buy TSLA prior to these events. Similar to how it was a good idea to own the stock prior to the release of the Model S, another time when Tesla became CF positive (that's when the stock really exploded). Most of it really depends on the initial success of the X, but I have confidence that it will be received very well.

Thanks. I agree that if we step back a little bit, Tesla's success and growth looks obvious, like it did in early 2013 to those who followed the company closely. My general thought is definitely to put in about as much as I feel comfortable "betting" by the end of the year. The big question for me is when to put it in. Just have the feeling supplier issues or lower than "expected" sales will temporarily crash the stock, and would want to buy in then, but so uncertain. Tesla could resolve the supplier issues and over-deliver. I decided to put more in today and keep my eye closely on the stock in the coming months for other opps.

Not planning to sell unless something insane happens that changes my whole perspective.

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Dollar Cost Average. fixed sum allocated over time periods. I have been DCA'ing since late 2012. purchase prices go from way low to well into the $200'S (Except when I got spooked in the downdraft of fall 2013, sold a bunch, drat) time periods can be fixed or variable

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any thoughts on the Stock price of SCTY and TSLA on -->Thursday Sept 10th after Elon is the guest on Stephen Colbert's 2nd late show wednesday Sept 9th? the teasers say Elon is SpaceX and Tesla. I suspect the movie "The Martian" (released on 10/2/2015) may also be mentioned. (there are a few Fidelity funds with about $1 billion invested in SpaceX).(im not a trader, i buy and hold as long as possible)

It's a good Q. I have no idea how much such appearances might affect the stock price. My guess is "not too much." But will watch extra closely at that time, and of course give a lot of weight to anything out of the ordinary that Elon states.

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Had a wonderful dinner tonight with my 79 year old father. Succeeded in getting him to come out for dinner with my brother, all the wives and my children. He's confined to a wheelchair and among other maladies he has advanced Parkinson's. But he has occasional days of lucidity and today was one of them.

He surprised me by not only knowing about Musk and the Model S but also understanding what I was into with TSLA. "You better hang on tight when you're riding a rocket. Might go to the moon, might fall out of the sky. Just keep putting in the same amount at the same interval. Don't be scared. Supposed to go up and down. If the story didn't change, your reason for owning didn't either. Be patient."

That's my advice from a senile old man living out his final days on the Great Lakes. Keep dollar cost averaging, and hold on tight.

Nice advice. Didn't someone say something about age and wisdom?

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Just posted in Model X Online Configuration by September that the picture on "My Profile" just changed to a black Model X. Not quite sure it is new, and I don't check very often...

This is fun to read a few days after the fact.

 

[ZachShahan]

With a stated 3.2 0-60 time and an all in price of 142,750$ I would say that is a bit of a surprise to me. That means it is hands down the quickest SUV/CUV/whatever on the market, and the price is only 750$ more than a maxed out Model S.

As usual, I think it will take the "regular world" awhile to "get" this.