Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is odd, if true, and may cause some minor short term negativity:


I must say it's hard to believe.
http://www.hybridcars.com/model-x-epa-ratings-and-interior-volume-published/

Does this take into account how the "passenger volume" is utilized? I suspect it doesn't. How are "passenger volume" and "luggage volume" defined?

 

[RobStark]

Station wagons were a staple in the U.S. for many years. Somehow they metamorphosed into the SUV's of today. Maybe high seating, maybe that other American problem ("mine's bigger"), but I also think a large dose of marketing went into this. They are forever trying to make a vehicle that is all things to all people (and so we got CUV's, too).

In the 1980s big station wagons with big V8s could no longer be made profitably with CAFE/EPA regulations.

But truck based SUVs were in a different category which allowed them to pollute more and use more fuel.

Hence SUV Boom.

With rising CAFE MPG requirements for truck based SUVs they can't be made in large enough numbers to meet demand and have their makers meet CAFE MPG requirements.

So makers are limiting demand by raising prices. Chevy Suburban starts at $48k and a Cadillac Escalade tops $100k fully loaded.

The balance get sold a car based utility vehicle. Hence car based CUV boom in the 2010's.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Spread the word. :smile:

 

[sub]

X will more than double demand.

I think global demand for the X will be bigger than the S, and that they will be selling 40/60 S/X when they're at full capacity which will be 2000/week i.e. 100k/year.

If they should risk running in to demand constraints remember that in 2017 comes Model 3

Boom, I'll be buying at least 1 model 3 and I think there will be some people buying multiples.

Over the next week or so I think the likeliest scenario is lots of excitement regarding X launch followed by not quite hitting the estimated Q3 delivery numbers leading to pullback on 55k target. I think this will present a nice entry as tesla will be set up for a bigger run through 2016. Wouldn't mind being wrong on this, but the company has struggled to meet delivery targets so until they meet one my default is recent history.

It's hard not to think that way, the irrational side of me says "it's been red 5x in a row, it's gotta be black this time!".

With luck, TM can drop the price by as much as the tax subsidy by the time the subsidy expires. That would keep the price to the consumer the same as before.

This is a bigger positive than just the overall price staying the same. Right now you have to put out the money and wait for tax time to "get it back" or "pay less". If nothing more you are recouping lost opportunity costs.

The model X higher seating position is a big deal, a large number of people (Chronologically challenged, chronic low back issues etc) have a difficult time getting into low cars. I have a hard time getting into our 335d and don't like doing so around town when i'm only driving a mile and have to get out again (42 but chronic low back issues). The i3 in comparison is very easy and nice to get into. The bonus with the Model X is you don't get the top heavy rolling of what most ICE SUV/CUV's will give you so you're not having to give up performance (that can be used in the real world). I can't stand softly suspended rolling vehicles, I live in the mountains and we don't have straight roads. I prefer to feel the road and have minimal body sway.

 

[Cobos]

Your observation is correct. To add some local perspective: in Europe we have something called a "station wagon" (some Americans may have heard of it) which is why SUVs are relatively less popular here. Sedans however are generally not big sellers here. The X will do very well in large parts of Europe.

Though in Norway the station wagon is loosing ground to smaller SUVs (or CUVs) like the Kuga, Tiguan and RAV4 (which is smaller in Europe). The tall compacts like the Nissan Quasqai (Rogue in the US) does very well as well. So the X is a much better shape than the huge sedan/hatchback the Model S is.

Cobos

 

[FANGO]

Spread the word. :smile:

View attachment 95725

View attachment 95726

Problem is, I bet the bill starts and ends at way too low of a price. It needs to be priced at like 200/ton but every proposal I see is for 20-40. This isn't enough to end the subsidy.

 

[chickensevil]

Problem is, I bet the bill starts and ends at way too low of a price. It needs to be priced at like 200/ton but every proposal I see is for 20-40. This isn't enough to end the subsidy.

Would be a good start though. Something is better than nothing right? Besides, once you get it in place it is far easier to start raising the prices. Just getting it in the door is the hardest thing.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Former VW boss Winterkorn investigated for fraud

The scandal has also rocked the wider car market, with manufacturers fearing a drop in diesel car sales and more costly regulations, and customers furious that Volkswagen has not given more details about what might happen to their cars.

The company has said 11 million cars worldwide had defeat devices installed. On Monday, Audi said 2.1 million of these were its own models, including the A1, A3, A4, A5, A6, TT, Q3 and Q5.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any IPOs of significance this week that might pull money out of TSLA short term?

AFAIK there is Bayer's Material Science company Covestro this Friday.
What does anybody here think of the potential impact on TSLA?
Will people sell some TSLA short term to take part in the Covestro IPO?

During the last trading sessions $260 provided some nice support.
Will Model X reveal exitement and expectations for Q3 delivery number push and stabilize SP above that level?
What does anybody expect here for the short term?

Thank you in advance for sharing your expectations for the next couple of days.

Update:
TSLA up a bit druing PM, all other auto stocks down in Germany, Volkswagen again below 100EUR.

 

[austinEV]

I'm not saying those people doesn't exist, I'm saying that I think that for a large part of Tesla's potential customers the visibility of a high seat isn't the deciding factor.

Overweight people are not comfortable in a model S. I think this is no small factor in the popularity of SUV's in the US. Just sayin'.

 

[ggies07]

So I had a hard time getting to sleep last night as I felt like a kid before Christmas morning (choose your holiday) with this week and the X reveal. We all know what it looks like, but I'm excited for the public to finally get all the info on it. Anyone else?

 

[hershey101]

Overweight people are not comfortable in a model S. I think this is no small factor in the popularity of SUV's in the US. Just sayin'.

Haha! For people who don't realize why americans might want an SUV, just watch Idiocracy...

 

[Buddyroe]

Haha! For people who don't realize why americans might want an SUV, just watch Idiocracy...

That movie will teach you a TON about the dumbing-down of America we're going through right now. The only thing it got wrong was the time into the future. It won't take 500 years to get to that point. Heck, we're pretty close right now.

 

[doggusfluffy]

That movie will teach you a TON about the dumbing-down of America we're going through right now. The only thing it got wrong was the time into the future. It won't take 500 years to get to that point. Heck, we're pretty close right now.

It provides spoilers as to Starbucks future business model diversification...

 

[uselesslogin]

So I like to always keep relative performance in mind. On July 17th the NASDAQ composite closed around 5200 and TSLA $274. Since then TSLA has handily outperformed the index by about 7 percentage points. If one assumes the relative performance would be the same had the NASDAQ stayed at 5200 we would be at $293 right now. Considering speculative stocks generally do worse than the index I think TSLA is doing quite well lately.

 

[Hogfighter]

So I had a hard time getting to sleep last night as I felt like a kid before Christmas morning (choose your holiday) with this week and the X reveal. We all know what it looks like, but I'm excited for the public to finally get all the info on it. Anyone else?

With all the secrecy surrounding the X, it had better have some pretty cool features. Don't think it will move the needle re: TSLA though.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Any IPOs of significance this week that might pull money out of TSLA short term?

AFAIK there is Bayer's Material Science company Covestro this Friday.
What does anybody here think of the potential impact on TSLA?
Will people sell some TSLA short term to take part in the Covestro IPO?

During the last trading sessions $260 provided some nice support.
Will Model X reveal exitement and expectations for Q3 delivery number push and stabilize SP above that level?
What does anybody expect here for the short term?

Thank you in advance for sharing your expectations for the next couple of days.

Update:
TSLA up a bit druing PM, all other auto stocks down in Germany, Volkswagen again below 100EUR.

There had also been some concern about a possible US government shut down. I don't follow that noise, but Boehner also said there wouldn't be one. Granted he quit...but Cantor restated it too.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/cantor-republicans-wont-shut-down-the-government.html

 

[ev-enthusiast]

There had also been some concern about a possible US government shut down. I don't follow that noise, but Boehner also said there wouldn't be one. Granted he quit...but Cantor restated it too.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/cantor-republicans-wont-shut-down-the-government.html

That is great to hear.
Last time the US government shut down spread a lot of negativity.

BTW German auto stocks taking a dive again during first trading hour.
TSLA holding up strong.
Update on German auto stocks dragging down the DAX today:
Volkswagen down currently about 9% (link).
Porsche down currently about 7% (link).
Daimler down currently about 3% (link).
Continental down currently about 3% (link).
BMW down currently about 3% (link).
Audi down currently about 4% (link).

 

[Drax7]

That is great to hear.
Last time the US government shut down spread a lot of negativity.

BTW German auto stocks taking a dive again during first trading hour.
TSLA holding up strong.
Update on German auto stocks dragging down the DAX today:
Volkswagen down currently about 9% (link).
Porsche down currently about 7% (link).
Daimler down currently about 3% (link).
Continental down currently about 3% (link).
BMW down currently about 3% (link).
Audi down currently about 4% (link).

daimler denied any manipulation in exhausts, tell me when its a buy

 

[mrdoubleb]

That is great to hear.
Last time the US government shut down spread a lot of negativity.

BTW German auto stocks taking a dive again during first trading hour.
TSLA holding up strong.
Update on German auto stocks dragging down the DAX today:
Volkswagen down currently about 9% (link).
Porsche down currently about 7% (link).
Daimler down currently about 3% (link).
Continental down currently about 3% (link).
BMW down currently about 3% (link).
Audi down currently about 4% (link).

Wow! VW down below 100... can this get any worse? I expected such price action from the German heavyweights around the time Model 3 preorder numbers are released.