MartinAustin
Active Member
Think we should start a prediction-competition thread for Q3, last one turned out pretty accurate.
I think there is one already, not sure where it is... if the mods would move all this over that would be great
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think there is one already, not sure where it is... if the mods would move all this over that would be great
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Kinda thinking that Q3 numbers will be in line with estimates. Insight from the quarterly newsletter / conference call into the Model X ramp will be much more important.
doggusfluffy
Closed
mejojo
Active Member
2 month delay for a new S.
9+ month delay for a new X.
In what way does this imply "not production constrained"?
For the X, obviously production constrained, sorry I didn´t make that clear.
For the S, I could argue why do they do an incentive program? Otherwise I have to admit I don´t have much details to back up the claim, but a posted waiting time alone does not completely convince me. I think there have been people who have received their cars quicker than that and it could theroretically be that Tesla would still make it look like they are production constrained, but that is just a guess. So not a strong case I admit.
sub
Active Member
If Tesla is demand constrained on the Model S but trying to hide it by stating longer waiting times, how long do you think that strategy is going to pay off? I give Tesla enough credit to realize this would be a bad idea. I know I would rather the stock price fall than spend time in cuffs for deceptive practices.
Tesla's comfort zone for wait time may be right around 2 months, short enough time that it doesn't discourage a large percentage of buyers but enough of a backlog that the production line is never at short term risk of running dry and gives them time to maneuver if things do slow down.
Tesla's comfort zone for wait time may be right around 2 months, short enough time that it doesn't discourage a large percentage of buyers but enough of a backlog that the production line is never at short term risk of running dry and gives them time to maneuver if things do slow down.
TSLAX
Member
We have waited since July 28 for a model S. It was confirmed August 4. A couple of days ago, Tesla updated the delivery for this coming week. The timeframe given is Sept 29 until Oct 6. Before that update, the timeframe for arrival was Oct 2 to Oct 16. So, a two month wait to the east coast is a realty!
Anticipating no longer becoming demand-constrained != actually being demand constrained.
Elon's a smart guy, I think he realized that they weren't going to have enough orders to compensate for the capacity ramp in Q3/Q4 and decided to do something about it.
Agree with that, but if it is a comfort zone, doesn´t it suggest they have deliberately put themselves there? IMHO that would mean if they really wanted, they could produce more cars, but would then they would run the risk of running dry as you said.
As I said above, I don´t have a strong case here, could as well be wrong.
doggusfluffy
Closed
mmd
Active Member
FWIW, some US orders using the referral program are already getting their cars in Q3. May be, you are talking about international orders.
Browsing the delivery thread below for the last week or so, we can see that cars ordered early in the quarter were shipped by rail, that takes upto 4 weeks. Those ordered late in the quarter are being shipped by truck. Someone (e-FTW from San francisco) reported confirmation to delivery in just 10 days.
Model S Delivery Update - Page 812
One way to look at current longer wait time for the S can be attributable to the launch of the X. My local sales rep told me in July that at the end of September, you would see at least 2 months of wait. He sent me a text today that it is already December for FL.
Good thing here is Tesla sees that the ramp so for for the X is doing good. Things may change as actual production starts, but thats the positve I take for now.
Good thing here is Tesla sees that the ramp so for for the X is doing good. Things may change as actual production starts, but thats the positve I take for now.
sundaymorning
Active Member
This is typical of end of the quarter push as U.S. Orders are set as priority, those in Califiornia will naturally get their cars sooner end of the quarter as California is where the car is produced. It can be picked up faster.. go back to end of quarter threads and you'll see the same type of results. This is Bears' best chance at harping on "demand" FUD before the they are slaughtered by a beat..
If you were Tesla would you send a car overseas, where it can take 6 weeks to reach a customer, especially when the quarter is ending? Or would you call the guy who lives 4-5 hours away in California?
sub
Active Member
We we are both working with little to no evidence, just my opinion. Obviously delivery times can be looked at from either perspective, production is throttled to keep wait time around 2 months or demand has increased with production and tesla will occasionally pull a lever (Referral program) to pick up the demand if it starts to fall behind the increase in production capabilities. Tesla still doesn't do traditional advertising, IMO this will be the first true sign of demand constrain.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
This is odd, if true, and may cause some minor short term negativity:
http://www.hybridcars.com/model-x-epa-ratings-and-interior-volume-published/
I must say it's hard to believe.
http://www.hybridcars.com/model-x-epa-ratings-and-interior-volume-published/
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Important distinction:
1. Demand constrained for MODEL S (due to Osborne effect from Model X)
or
2. Demand constrained. (For S+X combined).
1 is semi-plausible, 2 not at all.
After X ramp is complete it couldn't matter less to Tesla what the S vs. X mix is, but as they ramp the X there is a period of 4-6 months where they don't want "everyone" not buying a Model S because they want to wait for an X.
a whole lot of Tesla's were delivered to the Rockville, Maryland, USA, Gude Drive service center thursday/friday. 20+ shrink wrapped. total more than 42 there. Sat, most being readied for delivery. (I really like the 90D and the new blue color and the charcoalish gray colors)
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Perfectlogic
Member
Model S demand has been around 1k/week for a while, soon production capacity will be 2k/week, do you really think the X will double the demand? I don't think the X will add more than 500/week demand at the very most. Sure Tesla will still be temporarily production constrained even with 1500 demand due to the backlog, but if the demand ends up around 1500 after the X release I wouldn't say Tesla is truly production constrained as I doubt they will expand capacity for a while.
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