Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mrdoubleb]

Maybe someone else said this, but it is plausible that model S could sell 16k units just due to the "reverse-Osbourning" effect. Now that the X is released there could easily be enough fence-sitters who realize they can pass on the X to have unusually high model S demand.

So I am in the camp that believes demand is not an issue at all. Also, as EV-Enthusiast has pointed out, Tesla manufactured almost 13k Model S in Q2, so Q3 should have been around that too. So going from 13 to 15k for Model S should not be a major problem for production and that would leave only 1,800-1,900 Model X, or roughly the North America sigs "and some change" to be delivered. In theory production should be able to keep up with that.

The question is, can the sales/delivery/logistics team handle this. I week of bad winter in NA and Europe could have a negative effect on deliveries...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

What tweet from Elon are you talking about?

With two cars now competing for the customers I think S demand will go down a bit in the coming quarters, so Tesla might not be able to just produce more S's if the X ramp isn't steep enough to meet the 50k (I don't even think the high end of the guidance is relevant anymore). I do believe it is likely for Tesla to meet the 50k mark, but I see a higher chance of 49k than 51k deliveries. I think media focus next week will be speculation on whether Tesla's yearly guidance will be met or not which I think will put SP under pressure.

Tweet by Lance Ulanoff ‏@LanceUlanoff during #insideenergy (tweet) (sorry, not by @elonmusk):

After Tesla Model X launch, @elonmusk said they saw "a big, a very big jump in orders + on Model S."

Other persons tweeted a similar message, like electrek.

With Model X reservations enough for the next quarters and Model S reservations having grown significantly, there is no issues for Q4 and beyond.

 

[ZenMan]

We won't know the exact numbers until the earnings call. It's possible they produced 13-14k this quarter and didn't bother rushing to deliver them. This would make the leap in production numbers much smaller and getting all the cars out to customers in Q4 the focus. Elon should have a good feeling on the outcome by the earnings call.

I like your train of thought. I think it is only logical not to push in Q3. You will have lots of customers pushing for delivery in Q4 to take advantage of the tax rebate. Slip even one day into 2016, and your rebate is delayed an extra year. So produce as many as you can, and get them ready for delivery in Q4. No need to push a customer to close in Q3 as you will have most customers clamoring at the end of Q4 to get their vehicles.

 

[StapleGun]

it's my view that tesla never reached a point where production actually exceed their order book. In other words, tesla remained production constrained during Q3

They build to order, so even if they are demand constrained the production is not going to exceed demand. Based on the leveling off of production it seems to me that the MS demand is also leveling off (at least for now). With the MX launch and Model 3 to worry about, I think the current level of MS demand is healthy. I don't think we will see fast growth of demand for the S again until Tesla decides it's needed.

 

[Scott Ales]

Nice little run today. Not enough for my Aug 2 $250s...

One of the few things I got right last Friday was to sell mine. And I mean FEW!

 

[Perfectlogic]

Tweet by Lance Ulanoff ‏@LanceUlanoff during #insideenergy (tweet) (sorry, not by @elonmusk):

I see, looks like some wanted to see the X before deciding between the two, makes sense. I think this is a one off effect though.

 

[Scott Ales]

I like your train of thought. I think it is only logical not to push in Q3. You will have lots of customers pushing for delivery in Q4 to take advantage of the tax rebate. Slip even one day into 2016, and your rebate is delayed an extra year. So produce as many as you can, and get them ready for delivery in Q4. No need to push a customer to close in Q3 as you will have most customers clamoring at the end of Q4 to get their vehicles.

Don't forget the Section 179 rule for the Model X. That's a chunk you don't want to leave for a year too! I'm not sure if the IRS released guidance for this yet for the year but it has been very common they do it in Dec.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I see, looks like some wanted to see the X before deciding between the two, makes sense. I think this is a one off effect though.

Yes, might be a one off effect!
Enough for Q4 2015 and beyond.
No idea what will happen during Q3 or Q4 2016.

And I could imagine a lot of people waited for Tesla Motors to delay their first Model X deliveries.
First deliveries actually taking place on September 29th was very good for customer confidence in the company and the products.
Kind of reaffirms people that Tesla Motors will get it right.

And Tesla Motors definetly had their issues with their Model X delays

 

[hockeythug]

Thankfully we have X Sig owner #2 Bonnie on here to see when production begins.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So I just listened to a piece at the Motley Fool on the Model X launch where their senior technical editor (or whatever) phoned in and reported on the launch the morning after. Now, as always, we know how inaccurate journalists can be, but the interview seemed to demonstrate these guys got their facts straight on Tesla, so I am inclined to believe this:

The reporter phoning in said Musk told journalists on site that the reason they are still a bit unsure about Q4 is mostly due to 2 suppliers. They need the supplier of the windshield and the supplier of the second row seats to ramp production quickly enough, but he was very confident in the capabilities of Tesla's own Production Line 2. He said something like "tell me how fast these 2 suppliers will ramp and I tell you how many cars we'll produce in Q4".

So for what it's worth, a tiny bit more information for us to wonder about.

 

[sub]

Tesla can eat farther into their Model S backlog in Q4 while they work on getting Model X ramp going. If Model S demand has been around 12-13k and Tesla has been producing around 12-13k intentionally while still keeping a backlog of 5-10k model S orders, they can simply eat into that backlog an extra 5k to meet 2015 guidance. If they can not build up the Model S demand above the current level they have plenty of Model X orders to step in to keep them at the 1600-1800 projected for next year. They just need to fill in the ramp period on the X, they have enough Model S orders to do that. At that point the Model S demand could actually go down and they could still meet next year's guidance with S + X.

 

[Joel]

“It will be real slow for the first several weeks and then shoot up towards the end of the year,” he said Tuesday. He said Tesla has between 20,000 and 25,000 existing reservations for the Model X and that the backlog for delivery now stands at between eight and 12 months."

Tesla Deliveries Rise 49% Without Help From Model X - WSJ

 

[Earlian]

So today was the last time to feel pessimistic about the numbers till late 2016. [emoji123]

And then GF will run too.[emoji16]

 

[Perfectlogic]

“It will be real slow for the first several weeks and then shoot up towards the end of the year,” he said Tuesday. He said Tesla has between 20,000 and 25,000 existing reservations for the Model X and that the backlog for delivery now stands at between eight and 12 months."

Tesla Deliveries Rise 49% Without Help From Model X - WSJ

I don't understand how 20-25k X backlog will take 8-12 months to go through, is Tesla really only expecting to produce 500/week? If that is so then the S demand needs to wake up for Tesla to make their 2016 guidance.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't understand how 20-25k X backlog will take 8-12 months to go through, is Tesla really only expecting to produce 500/week? If that is so then the S demand needs to wake up for Tesla to make their 2016 guidance.

There probably wont be more than 2k Model X delivered in Q4. Then, in the first half of next year they will fulfill about 20-23k orders existing today. Any new orders placed today will only be delivered starting H2 2016, so in about 9 months. That's already an annual run rate of 40-46k Model X for the first half of next year.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Tesla falls just shy of electric car deliveries in third quarter - Fortune

"Tesla falls just shy of electric car deliveries for the third quarter" "expected to make 12,000 cars in the third quarter"

How are so many sources so uninformed all the time? Pretty annoying but humorous at the same time. When will we get production numbers by the way?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Production numbers will likely be included on the ER. Usually they give exact details but have been vague in at least one previous quarter. They have not given production numbers with these delivery announcements for Q1 and Q2, so that should not have been expected.

 

[Joel]

There probably wont be more than 2k Model X delivered in Q4. Then, in the first half of next year they will fulfill about 20-23k orders existing today. Any new orders placed today will only be delivered starting H2 2016, so in about 9 months. That's already an annual run rate of 40-46k Model X for the first half of next year.

Exactly.

Tesla needs to focus on manufacturing now. If they given is they miss 2015 Guidance of 50K cars, Wall Street is not selling.

20K to 25K reservations is a realistic number of X reservations as of October 2, 2015 (give the Model X tracker and Elon's public statements earlier this year, etc.). If Tesla ramps up production on X to 500 to 1,000 cars per week by January 1, 2016, it is reasonable to believe Tesla could manufacture 1,000 S and 1,000 X per week in 2016. And if 2016 Demand for Model S is 35K to 40K and Demand for Model X is 30K to 40K, Tesla can easily sell 65K to 70K cars next year. Of course, Elon will set 2016 guidance at 75K to 80K cars. But that is Elon being Elon.

Tesla is going to deliver on the reality of what Elon says not the nonsense he spews. The reality is Tesla is increase sales at 50% per year. 2014 Sales were 31,655. 50.00% growth for 2015 is 47,483 cars. I believe Tesla will come in around that number. Being the "genius" he is, why can Elon not do the simply arithmetic of: 50.00% growth on is 47,483, not 55,000. Not 50,000.

 

[MitchJi]

I think it makes a difference how they make 50k, depending on the MX numbers. I agree that there won't be a big negative impact of they make 50k with only 100 or so MX's. But I think there will be a significant positive impact if they can get the MX production humming before the end of the year.

I just called the local Tesla Store and asked when they will have a MX available for test drives and was told that "they were told the end of the year or early 2016." She said that she did not know if it would be available for general test drives, or only for Signature buyers for help with their configuration.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Tesla is going to deliver on the reality of what Elon says not the nonsense he spews. The reality is Tesla is increase sales at 50% per year. 2014 Sales were 31,655. 50.00% growth for 2015 is 47,483 cars. I believe Tesla will come in around that number. Being the "genius" he is, why can Elon not do the simply arithmetic of: 50.00% growth on is 47,483, not 55,000. Not 50,000.

He has said that Tesla will increase sales at an average of 50% per year for the foreseeable future. 4Q 2015 and all of 2016 will both be above that average due to the introduction of a new vehicle, which doubles their fleet. Model S sales will most likely be around 47K, but since they are produced on two separate assembly lines, you can count on higher than 47K total vehicle deliveries for 2015, unless there's an unpredicted setback in the production ramp.

2017 on the other hand will most likely be a year that falls lower than the 50% average because it's simply hard to sell 115K vehicles close to $100K per car. Almost all of the current X backlog will be met in 2016, so the following year will need completely new customers and I just don't see a 50% increase from 2016 (unless you really see significant M3 sales, if any at all.)