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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Scott Ales
Member
I'll test market for us folks.
I'm picking up the used 2015 under 2000 mile Model S 70D Tuesday. It was delivered 3 months ago to a retail customer with a sticker price of $92,200. Back out the $7,500 tax credit and you get $84,700 for anyone who orders a new car today. As a licensed Florida dealer since 1993 I'll advertise the car for $83k and see what happens. If we get zero calls and are force to lower the price I would say the market of a like new or new Model S is thin. If it sells right away... well, you know what that means.
I'm picking up the used 2015 under 2000 mile Model S 70D Tuesday. It was delivered 3 months ago to a retail customer with a sticker price of $92,200. Back out the $7,500 tax credit and you get $84,700 for anyone who orders a new car today. As a licensed Florida dealer since 1993 I'll advertise the car for $83k and see what happens. If we get zero calls and are force to lower the price I would say the market of a like new or new Model S is thin. If it sells right away... well, you know what that means.
I agree with you. My point is the short term story is in place when grounded in reality. Elon exercises some crazy mathematics that make the short term more volatile than necessary. For example, everyone would be bullish if Elon spoke the reality that 31,655 x 1.50 was actually 2015 guidance. Meaning if he he guided 47,500 for 2015, we'd be going bonkers, Etc.
I'd wager 2016 guidance is north of 75K when it should be "68K to 72K"
Anyway, in the short term, I believe Wall Street does not punish Tesla for missing 2015 guidance. Because they see the 20K to 25K X reservations at an ASP around $110K, which is $2.75 Billion.
In the short term tesla needs all hands on deck to ramp production up to 1,500 to 2,000 cars a week.
I agree. While I would like to think we get over 50K deliveries realize a lot of pieces have to come together to deliver close to 17K cars in Q4. I agree that demand is not an issue....but TM has to produce and deliver 50% more cars in Q4 than Q3. I think they may be able to produce that number but then they have to ship and have enough staff to deliver them to customers. I know my local SC can get overwhelmed delivery wise so increase their load by 50%....maybe...but just maybe.
Joel may be right that 'the street' will not care if they deliver 47=48K or if guidance is reduced to that level at the Q3 CC......but TSLA has been punished for quite less. It will be an interesting couple weeks.
A weekend release of the news should help correct such headlines before market opens.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I respectfully disagree. The second production line is up and operating. The line can produce either the X or the S. Demand has picked up for the S since the X launch. We've seen on other threads that VINs for the S are being assigned at a more rapid pace. It seems plausible that they can meet or exceed the 50k number by the EOY. I do agree that a slight miss might not matter when there is such a backlog for the X.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Theoretically, if I have wife and kids at my current situation. I want them to be driving that tank. This is the car that you buy your family to ensure your genes gets passed down.
The demand will be there, it will just take the rest of the population a while to realize why. Now if I can get a falcon wing door on my Model 3... I'd pay $75k for it.
The demand will be there, it will just take the rest of the population a while to realize why. Now if I can get a falcon wing door on my Model 3... I'd pay $75k for it.
Elon's on a twitter bender rivaling the time he was on meds from minor outpatient surgery. Much promoting & clarifying re X (like what happens in rain), and a pretty strong hint that there will be a battery bigger than 70 kWh in about 12 months as entry model. Perhaps given demand for the 90 kWh version, it will be all they sell for the X until something somewhat bigger than the 70 is out.
Too many tweets to post, but here's a link to his feed.
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Too many tweets to post, but here's a link to his feed.
Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter
Curt, that's awesome she made the changes and thank you! But that video at the top of the article
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Scott Ales
Member
I'm just sick of people saying, "Yes, but the real test comes...."
How many ridiculous times over the last 8 years have you read or heard that?
Tesla is WAY past the real test. In fact, the real test is how any other company will catch up to Tesla!
How many ridiculous times over the last 8 years have you read or heard that?
Tesla is WAY past the real test. In fact, the real test is how any other company will catch up to Tesla!
Bet TSLA
Active Member
No, they aren't. Everything they've done so far is just preparation and practice for Model 3. That's what they've been aiming to do from the beginning. The real test is whether they can indeed put millions of electric vehicles on the road, either themselves or by inspiring others.
I'd say they have achieved a couple of subgoals, and done so beautifully (albeit later than they wanted to). But yes, the real test lies ahead. Personally, I'm convinced they will pass that test with flying colors, but I won't be surprised if they're a year late.
Come on, don't tell me you haven't gotten used to this yet... We are closing in on 100k Model S delivered but we still occasionally hear the demand FUD.
I always smile when some of you post stuff like "at last when such and such happens they will finally stop the FUD about...". No, they won't. Take for example our friend Paulo Santos. I stopped reading his articles a while ago, so I only get the headlines, but every time one of his nonsense FUD pieces is proven wrong by actual numbers, he writes up a "OK, but what about..." article.
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Thanks, it was a good read! I am following him on Twitter but I always forget about my Twitter app, lol.
IT was very interesting how he replied to one of the comments that "...there will be a Model 3 and a Model Y...". First of all, that is another confirmation on the "Y" model name, but more importantly it does not sound like they are working on the Model 3 and somewhere down the line they will evaluate/start Model Y. It may very well be Y could be just a short time behind 3. They surely won't overcomplicate Y like they did X. It is also a cheaper model so no need for out of this world solutions.
If you think the X is selling well, wait for Y. I would go out on a limb saying it will eclipse Model 3 sales.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
So....what happens Monday? We've gotten more clarity on the X ramp (2 suppliers need to stay up late), on target with Q3 deliveries, and demand for S has increased. Will we see much of a rise?
Scott Ales
Member
I fundamentally disagree. They have absolutely proven you can produce a better car that people will buy over the same product class ICE. God forbid they fail, the company would be fought over and continued on with the foundation they laid. As opposed to every other effort that went by the wayside. I mean really, what did Wanxiang get when they bought Fisker? They didn't even keep the name! I feel it is the opposite, they passed the test with the Model S, everything after that is validation. I won't drone on with the second and third tier accomplishments, but here are a few barriers they hammered.
* No marketing. If you proposed this as a concept 10 years ago in any board room of an established car company you would have been demoted or fired. Now that is a primary subject I'm sure.
* No dealership franchises. The delivery process alone over the current 4-6 hour dealership grind version will convert you forever as a buyer.
* Worldwide energy supply infrastructure. At least 90% of the people I ask have no clue it's out there! Ask a few people you meet behind cash registers or waiters.
* Touch screen implementation, that 17" screen is the crown jewel. Now every other competitor will "look" like Tesla at a glance. They are the standard and when others use it, they just copy cats now. How do you make your 10-20" screen look different. From here on out the comment will always be, "oh, that looks just like a Tesla." You've seen the Dodge with one, right? What did it remind you of instantly?
* Performance unrivaled. While common for me as a car nut / gear head, the overwhelming majority of people have NEVER been in a car that accelerates over .75 g's let alone 1.2! When they experience this personally in a 5-8 year old used car with 300k miles for $25k, the foundation of what Tesla has done will settle in.
I have 30+ year relationships with dealer principals who don't have a clue what Tesla has accomplished. 300 of them subscribe to our dealer to dealer trading platform so I have their ear daily. Wednesday I emailed all of them the link for the MX reveal. Less than 10% even watched it. These are individuals who make $1MM -$20MM a year who have tremendous respect for as businessmen. They are constrained by the media material which is against Tesla. Their media sources of course provide a non-objective bias and no real basis for the product or company. So many people are going to be blind sided in 3-5 years at how fast this is move. The transportation industry has officially changed (for the better) forever.
The proper statement moving forward is: Another test will be...
The real test is over.
Of course, IMHO
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