Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Papafox]

Over the next year, most of us are bullish about where TSLA is going, once the Model X ramp up is clearly doing well. The short term of this stock is always volatile, particularly in times of uncertainty such as the present. I agree that this dip is a wonderful buying opportunity.

Let us not assume that behavior of the company and share prices in the past will be carried forward without modifications. As soon as investors figure out a trend, other investors pop up to stay one step ahead of that trend and in time the trend becomes something that cannot be depended upon. For example, in previous times, the stock would hesitate at the top of a run up for a few days before starting down again. Many investors including myself were for this reason caught off guard when the 280 priced TSLA dropped quickly without the usual pause before the reversal. Lesson learned.

Similarly, I think one should not expect the Model 3 to undergo the same delays as Model S and Model X in reveal and gear up for production. Why? The stakes are too high and Tesla knows this. Chevy's Bolt is coming out in 2017 and Tesla feels the pressure to keep Model 3 on track. Remember that Model 3 depends upon gigafactory ramp up and gigafactory ramp up depends upon Model 3 ramp up to a large extent. Guess what? the gigafactory is on track and Model 3 needs to be too. Model 3 is going to be a simpler design, Tesla has had a team working on it for some time now, and Body Line #1 is going to give way to the Model 3 body line well in advance of mid 2017. We may not see Model 3 revealed in April, but I am willing to bet we see it within a few months afterwards.

Behaviors of the past simply cannot be depended upon in the future. Learn from the past, but be willing to understand that Telsa the company and Tesla investors are all learning as we go forward.

 

[Drax7]

"the model x is so advanced we probably shouldn't have built it"
Elon Musk

Eventually this will be very bullish, now it seems to be a draw back

 

[jhm]

Over the next year, most of us are bullish about where TSLA is going, once the Model X ramp up is clearly doing well. The short term of this stock is always volatile, particularly in times of uncertainty such as the present. I agree that this dip is a wonderful buying opportunity.

Let us not assume that behavior of the company and share prices in the past will be carried forward without modifications. As soon as investors figure out a trend, other investors pop up to stay one step ahead of that trend and in time the trend becomes something that cannot be depended upon. For example, in previous times, the stock would hesitate at the top of a run up for a few days before starting down again. Many investors including myself were for this reason caught off guard when the 280 priced TSLA dropped quickly without the usual pause before the reversal. Lesson learned.

Similarly, I think one should not expect the Model 3 to undergo the same delays as Model S and Model X in reveal and gear up for production. Why? The stakes are too high and Tesla knows this. Chevy's Bolt is coming out in 2017 and Tesla feels the pressure to keep Model 3 on track. Model 3 is going to be a simpler design, Tesla has had a team working on it for some time now, and Body Line #1 is going to give way to the Model 3 body line well in advance of mid 2017. We may not see Model 3 revealed in April, but I am willing to bet we see it within a few months afterwards.

Behaviors of the past simply cannot be depended upon in the future. Learn from the past, but be willing to understand that Telsa the company and Tesla investors are all learning as we go forward.

I think the timing with Gen 3 will be driven by the Gigafactory. It can't come before the Gigafactory because battery pack capacity and cost efficiencies are required. It also should not lag too much because that would not be capital efficient to let the Gigafactory sit underutilized. So in the near term I think we can guage commitment and progress on Gen 3 vehicles based on how quickly the Gigafactory is progressing.

By contrast there was little opportunity cost associated with delaying the Model X.

 

[Papafox]

I think the timing with Gen 3 will be driven by the Gigafactory. It can't come before the Gigafactory because battery pack capacity and cost efficiencies are required. It also should not lag too much because that would not be capital efficient to let the Gigafactory sit underutilized. So in the near term I think we can guage commitment and progress on Gen 3 vehicles based on how quickly the Gigafactory is progressing.

By contrast there was little opportunity cost associated with delaying the Model X.

Agreed.

Consider, too, the commitments that Tesla is seeking from Panasonic and gigafactory subcontractors. Tesla needs to assure these people that demand for the cells will be there when the various stages of the gigafactory are completed. Tesla cannot afford to be late with Model 3 if gigafactory is on time, and gigafactory appears to be on time.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've moved 32 posts mostly discussing the Model X to Model X reveal impact on TSLA

Most of these were older and had run their course here. There are two reasons I move (non-objectionable) posts out of this thread:

• Keep this thread focused on "new news" that might affect TSLA pricing
• Create conversations that can be found a month from now

Posting volume in this thread is so high that anything posted here is lost, for most purposes, after a day or two. Using the more topic-specific threads allows TMC members who don't read this thread daily to keep up with topics of interest to them.

 

[tgp1019]

*Tesla Shares Spiking - Seeing Chatter Of Possible Large Trader Taking Position

10/7/15, 11:50 AM
This was posted on my ameritrade news feed. Does anyone know who is taking position?

 

[sub]

*Tesla Shares Spiking - Seeing Chatter Of Possible Large Trader Taking Position

10/7/15, 11:50 AM
This was posted on my ameritrade news feed. Does anyone know who is taking position?

I bet Jonas knows

 

[Bobbyducati]

i didnt see any shares spiking...?

 

[Julian Cox]

I bet Jonas knows

MS 'Tesla Model X reservations worth $25K more per vehicle in high margin options than we anticipated'.

Remarkable rationale for a downgrade and an interesting departure from clairvoyance. That has to be said.

FWIW selling Model S and spending money on everything else - transitioning from that to selling S, X and Tesla Energy is quite a significant 180. Especially in light of recent guidance confirming that the MX unveil has pushed up both MS and MX demand as expected.

 

[AudubonB]

Does anyone know how we can find out WHO IS THE WINDSHIELD SUPPLIER?

If we can find that out perhaps we can learn more about that situation...perhaps that supplier is in bed with GM who wants Tesla to fail and can put pressure on that windshield supplier somehow to be a major bottleneck for Tesla's Model X.
Or perhaps if we learn who that windshield supplier is we can see if there are any good competitors out there or not so that we can truly know if Tesla is really stuck with them or has other potential windshield options.

Part of me wonders if perhaps Ben Kalo of Baird already went through the above exercise and then determined that Tesla could be screwed with it's Model X ramp (e.g. Windshield supplier has monopoly on that windshield and then is also doing the vast majority of its business with GM or VW with Tesla as a new client but small part of their business so far...or even worse, what if GM/VW are part owners of this windshield supplier or have senior mgmt ties to GM somehow)

As I wrote in the "Windshield Protection" link, there are a tantalizing number of clues suggesting AGP is the supplier out of their Lima, Peru, factory. I wish there were some way to post this such that all subsequent commentary regarding said supplier includes this caveat: WE DO NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE but, the internet and humans being what it is and they are, that's never going to happen....

Link to my post here: Windshield protection.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Just imagine if Icahn or Buffet announces they have taken a stake. Unlikely but possible. My bet is one of the early investors is planning to increase their position. Almost everyone here has forgotten about who the earliest investors were.

If Tesla's only problem is needing a few billion dollars, Tesla doesn't have any problems. In addition to the conventional big funds that own Tesla, there are more than enough impact investors, with a few billion on the sidelines.

 

[schonelucht]

I think currently sentiment is winning that Tesla will miss on the guidance numbers for full year delivery due to not enough model X deliveries. Shorter term players are taking money off the table due to this sentiment and the stock is under downwards pressure.

 

[Krugerrand]

Afraid of short term price weakness until it appears the model x will be a commercial success.
Until its apparent that Tesla can generate sales and profit margins on the X , it
represents a risk. Risk implies price concession.

Represents a risk AND a buying opportunity. :wink:

 

[dakh]

I think currently sentiment is winning that Tesla will miss on the guidance numbers for full year delivery due to not enough model X deliveries. Shorter term players are taking money off the table due to this sentiment and the stock is under downwards pressure.

That might be true but also the numbers are going to come out with a bunch of other possible commentary on what's happening in other parts of the business that could have an even bigger short to medium term impact. Say we know that the "density" of Gigafactory was underestimated so it very well could be that there will be more specific information about bigger steady state output, or something along those lines.

 

[Robbo]

ohmman just posted this in the X section:



Response to bear attack?! Sending invites doesn´t guarantee a ramp, but should be correlated - the question is just how strong this correlation is.

The cynic in me says the blast email about inviting res holders to configure is strictly a response to the recent MS and Baird research worrying about order cancellations due to the higher expected price point. By moving the res's to configured, the $5k deposits become non-refundable and TSLA can then claim the order book is in fact firm.

As a shareholder and X res holder, what I really want to hear is an estimated delivery date for the first few hundred X sigs, confirmation that the new production line is up and running, a sense of the production ramp and what actual pricing and delivery dates will be for non Performance variants.

 

[AlMc]

I believe 1st Q 2016 ER has the potential to see positive cash flow and a potential short squeeze. If you consider that 'short term' then that statement belongs here, if not I think we are smart to consider that the next couple months may not be great for TSLA. I have been wrong MANY times in the past so the obvious disclaimer is: Make your own investment decisions as only you have to rejoice good choices or lament bad ones.

I have no idea how the X ramp will go. I have no idea if there are supplier issues. I have no idea how stationary storage sales are going. Personally, I am concerned the next couple weeks/months will test our resolve with TSLA. I am not going to liquidate my TSLA stock positions but I have pulled in my March calls as I feel I can buy ones further out cheaper in the next couple weeks to catch a positive Q1. If I am wrong and Q4 turns out to be good then I have gained less than if I had stood pat with the March calls but mitigated some risk if Q4 shows missed guidance. I believe there may be some opportunities with J18 LEAPS when they come out in November and I intend to DCA. Strike Price will depend on the stock price at the time.

Edit: My biggest concern as to meeting delivery guidance: It is not production. It is the ability to deliver these to customers. I believe TM is set up to produce 16K+ models S/X but can they ship and deliver them. So, the robots in the factory may be easily able to build the required number but can the humans at the SCs deliver 50% more than in Q3?

If you are a 'buy and hold' person that does not need money for any pressing reason then I think you will weather any issues in late 2015 and see nice gains in 2016.

It appears TM is in a period where the market is not looking for statements/tweets from EM but improving financials/beats at ER/CC. I have referred to this before as we need 'more steak/less sizzle' to see strong green days in the coming weeks/months. Good luck to all with whatever strategy you choose.

 

[ggr]

I believe 1st Q 2016 ER has the potential to see positive cash flow and a potential short squeeze. If you consider that 'short term' then that statement belongs here, if not I think we are smart to consider that the next couple months may not be great for TSLA. I have been wrong MANY times in the past so the obvious disclaimer is: Make your own investment decisions as only you have to rejoice good choices or lament bad ones.

I have no idea how the X ramp will go. I have no idea if there are supplier issues. I have no idea how stationary storage sales are going. Personally, I am concerned the next couple weeks/months will test our resolve with TSLA. I am not going to liquidate my TSLA stock positions but I have pulled in my March calls as I feel I can buy ones further out cheaper in the next couple weeks to catch a positive Q1. If I am wrong and Q4 turns out to be good then I have gained less than if I had stood pat with the March calls but mitigated some risk if Q4 shows missed guidance. I believe there may be some opportunities with J18 LEAPS when they come out in November and I intend to DCA. Strike Price will depend on the stock price at the time.

Edit: My biggest concern as to meeting delivery guidance: It is not production. It is the ability to deliver these to customers. I believe TM is set up to produce 16K+ models S/X but can they ship and deliver them. So, the robots in the factory may be easily able to build the required number but can the humans at the SCs deliver 50% more than in Q3?

If you are a 'buy and hold' person that does not need money for any pressing reason then I think you will weather any issues in late 2015 and see nice gains in 2016.

It appears TM is in a period where the market is not looking for statements/tweets from EM but improving financials/beats at ER/CC. I have referred to this before as we need 'more steak/less sizzle' to see strong green days in the coming weeks/months. Good luck to all with whatever strategy you choose.

Any/all Model X deliveries will be to North America, and hence quick. I take Elon at his word, it's all about how quickly the ramp up happens.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Any/all Model X deliveries will be to North America, and hence quick. I take Elon at his word, it's all about how quickly the ramp up happens.

Is there something special about NA deliveries?
Why is it that some people here are "afraid" of NA deliveries not able to increase by about 60% during Q4 and thus SP tumbling?
In Germany it is like they wash the car, check interior, documents and then give you the keys, takes one hour.
Is this procedure more complicated in NA?

BTW factory in Freemont was running at full steam during last weeks. No big issues reported. So I expect a lot of vehicles produced during Q3 in excess to the deliveries and pipelines to Europe and Asia completly filled. Thus Tesla does not need to produce all these cars in Q4 they need to deliver in Q4. And as Musk mentioned demand for both Model S and X picked up significantly after the first Model X deliveries.

BTW Tesla spokesperson Alexis Georgeson confirmed that Model X qualifies for $25,000 tax break:

Yes, the curb weight of Model X is 5,441 lbs. So we expect the GVWR to exceed 6,000 lbs. This means a Section 179 deduction could be taken for to up to $25,000 of the purchase price.

More information on the Section 179 benefit and Tesla Model X in press articles like this one here: Tesla Model X qualifies for $25,000-tax break

 

[mmd]

I think, he is saying that delivering cars to NA shouldn't be an issue.

$25,000 is just accelerated depreciation for a business property. The commentators on that linked article seem more knowledgeable than whoever wrote that piece by grabbing together few tidbits from the forums

 

[Matias]

Is there something special about NA deliveries?
Why is it that some people here are "afraid" of NA deliveries not able to increase by about 60% during Q4 and thus SP tumbling?
In Germany it is like they wash the car, check interior, documents and then give you the keys, takes one hour.
Is this procedure more complicated in NA?

Wasn't there problems in Q42014 delivering the cars? If I remember correctly large number of deliveries slipped to Q12015 because of this. To my memory Tesla blamed bad weather and holiday season.

Edit: "Q4 results were hurt by delayed Model S P85D deliveries caused by "a combination of customers being on vacation, severe winter weather and shipping problems."